MATT BERNIER

JUSTIFY is going to be a very short price in the Preakness Stakes, and deservedly so following his emphatic victory in the Kentucky Derby. The 5-2 favorite, Justify pressed a hot early pace before taking over entering the far turn and never looked back. Trainer Bob Baffert has had tremendous success in the Preakness, especially with Derby winners. Baffert’s Derby winners are unbeaten in Baltimore, and it would be surprising if this year were any different. Justify is strictly the horse to beat. BRAVAZO is one of two entered for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, and he feels like the more likely of the two to run well in the Preakness. Making his first start since a very poor effort in the Louisiana Derby – a race so poor that it could be argued he was making his first start since winning the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February – this son of Awesome Again ran admirably two weeks ago in Louisville. Bravazo was wide throughout the Kentucky Derby, commencing a mild midrace move rounding the far turn before flattening down the lane. The move and wide trip were enough to make me believe he is sitting on a big effort. LONE SAILOR was briefly stacked up behind runners rounding the far turn in Derby 144 before finding running room and finishing well inside. The connections of the other entrants in the Preakness may feel the only way to beat Justify is to take the race to him early; if that’s the case, Lone Sailor will reap the benefits by coming from off the pace. A wet racetrack would be no concern for this son of Majestic Warrior, as he’s run well on off going twice. GOOD MAGIC is the second best horse in this race, but he’s in an unenviable position – likely having to make one of the first runs at Justify. Chad Brown did a fantastic job getting the 2-year-old male champion to peak at the right time and run a giant race on the first Saturday in May, but unfortunately, he was no match for the Derby winner; a trip like the one he worked out in Louisville is likely again Saturday, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he turns the tables on Justify.