ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 12, DREAM BABY DREAM

FIRST RACE

If the PIM racing surface somehow is dry for this card, or if it is carrying speed, these selections are going to be in trouble. I’m approaching the card figuring it’s wet and that outside paths are preferred. If those conditions hold there’s value in the opener since Autostrade is going to be a short price. HILL SHADOW has a win and a second from his two wet-track starts, should get the right trip as an outside-drawn stalking type, and has license to improve second start back from an extended vacation. Speaking of extended vacations, BEEKS races for the first time since Jan. 2017, but his work pattern encourages, and his high-water mark — a third behind Tale of S’Avall and Neolithic - is plenty good enough for this spot. AUTOSTRADE has the look of a Gulfstream flash and must deal with rail draw for the second race in a row.

SECOND RACE

SOPHIA IS AN ANGEL had her third career start, first around two turns, and first as a 3yo — in the $100K Dahlia Stakes. That April 21 start at LRL has the scent of a pure prep for this return to allowance competition, and SIAA actually performed decently, getting her third quarter in 22.63 second and her final quarter in 23.82 after dropping out to the rear of that field. CRITICAL HUMOR is the pick for dirt. Boosted to allowance company after being claimed out of a romping TAM win, and the race will come up pretty soft if rained off grass. SHE DOESN’T MIND had considerable trouble as 11-10 favorite in a race like this last out at LRL, and for what it’s worth won on a good-to-soft course in France before being imported.

THIRD RACE

TEAM TIM likely will get up to his 20-1 morningline odds, and has a decent chance of outrunning his price. The race is packed with pace factors and he has no sprint speed at all. Has found periodic success making one run in short dirt race and has room to improve off his turf-sprint comeback run last out. HAPPY FARM beat a moderate bunch last out in an LRL N1X but beat them like a drum while turning in a peak performance over a very wet track. PIM is his home course and his recent works look likely. FORGE ran so fast off

the claim in January he couldn’t race again for a couple months. Maybe he just airs, but he could get sucked into a hot pace. POP KEENAN also will take action. Never away from PRX and only wettrack experience was “wet-fast.”

FOURTH RACE

FEAR is all the way down from Finger Lakes for his 2018 bow, and there might well be good reason for that. He won off a break last April and ran against stronger competition last fall in NY turf sprints than he meets here. Has a win and a second in the two wet-turf starts showing on his form. BIG BELLA BROWN, the pick for dirt, is 4-3-0-1 on wet tracks, should it come to that. MAI TY ONE ON, the morning-line favorite, not only is a “three and out” candidate after a trio of peak performances, that top form came on an Gulfstream course far different than what he’s going to find today.

FIFTH RACE

You can see even just on paper how SAY THE WORD was struggling to put it together as a 2-year-old, and his two starts this year at age 3 are both a cut above what he was able to produce last fall. Really finished off his KEE run last time nicely, and this limited edition of the Hilltop probably isn’t going to prove all that much tougher. CALIFORNIA NIGHT might or might not handle turf in his first try, but will look pretty competitive if this race winds up being moved to the main track. Blue Grass was obviously a big ask off the modest AQU N1X win. Some combination of the turn back from routes to a one-turn race or the move from synthetic to dirt got to MAGICALMEISTER last out at KEE. If he’s able to get over turf like he did the all-weather he’s got a serious chance.

SIXTH RACE

Likely odds-on favorite UNCLE MOJO has a good draw, held decently after being used on a solid pace from an inside post in a KEE race at this class level that was considerably tougher, and has been the model of consistency. Can’t see enough holes to stand against. BELFOUR has been doing good work in one-turn races and has the pedigree to perform both at two turns and on a very wet racing surface. BO VUK stands decent chance of reproducing his one-turn form in this route, but he’s been raced heavily over the fall, winter and spring, and doesn’t have much upside today.

SEVENTH RACE

That “5” showing in the finishing-position spot on FROSTMOURNE’s running line for the G1 Makers46 gets one a couple extra odds points despite the fact he was about three-quarters of a length away from finishing second behind loose-on-lead Heart to Heart. Come back with three works since, drops a notch in class for his third start of the year, and has shown he gets over wet turf. DIVISIDERO also likes a wet course, and that ground called “good” for the 2017 Turf Classic at CD was far, far softer than good. New barn, new circuit, etc but he has fired fresh before and has logged plenty of work for this. WORLD APPROVAL is a champion in the larger sense as well as the defending Dixie champion, but I can’t take odds-on given his less-thanbreathtaking comeback run at TAM followed by the dud at Santa Anita. He had a great 2017 campaign but is a 6yo with 26 starts now who might not ever get back to that peak. And if he does, we’ll applaud.

EIGHTH RACE

Don’t see a way around odds-on favorite MITOLE, whose defeat three races ago probably had more to do with his poor start than a sloppy track. Brilliant in his last two and comes into this a relatively fresh horse. STILL HAVING FUN didn’t want two turns, though one can understand the connections pushing on to the Tesio given the trip he had in the Private Terms. Bounce back to his top sprint form puts him in the conversation, and you will get a nice win price on any horse here not named Mitole. SOUTACHE has been somewhat slow to really launch into his 3yo campaign, but while his Hutcheson was humdrum, his win over the very talented World of Trouble last year catches the eye.

NINTH RACE

BLESSED SILENCE a very decent third 4/22 in AQU allowance race likely designed more to shake off winter rust and give her a taste of American racing more than as a start to just go out and win. She was no Goldikova or something during her French career, but she was good, and her big win last year — in a rich handicap at Deauville where she beat 17 rivals - came over soft ground. The testing conditions likely on the PIM course will not be unfamiliar to her, and the question of whether she wants to go more than a mile will be balanced by what ought to be a very fair price. ELYSEA’S WORLD figures a clear second choice and CAMBODIA the favorite in what will be generally bet as a 2-horse race. Cambodia had the better 2017 campaign and her peak form is stronger, but I trust ELYSEA’S WORLD a bit more on a sodden course.

TENTH RACE

Sure, LONG HAUL BAY made a grand appearance last out at BEL in part because he was facing NY-bred N2X allowance foes. But there’s about zero chance he was cranked up for that start, his first in more than 10 months, and it was good to see him back from the long break looking undiminished by whatever caused it. It’s true he beat little in the Bay Shore and was found wanting against tougher foes in the Woody Stephens, but he might already have been sliding at that point, and could prefer this 6f trip to 7. Well drawn with a snappy recent drill. SWITZERLAND, who was semi-famous for combining obvious talent with a penchant for losing maiden races at short odds, finally seems to have figured things out. Running through MSW, N1X, and N2X consecutively has to be respected. He’s fresh and should be competitive at this level. FELLOWSHIP almost won the G3 Gen’l George in his most recent sprint start, but that was 7f, and even with a good pace at which to close, he could struggle to get home at this 6f distance.

ELEVENTH RACE

If all the forecast rain falls through late Saturday afternoon, the Pimlico turf will be softer than nearly all American horses will ever experience. That’s where BOOS comes in. French import had a very quiet 2017 in the US but was an excellent 2yo of 2016. She also has two wins on soft ground

and two more good races on good-to-soft, and the conditions surely enhance her chances.

KNOW BEST’s Keeneland tour de force last out was so much better than anything she’d previously produced that dismissing it as an unsustainable peak would be reasonable. But the thing is she’s generally barely exposed on grass, with just four turf starts, and the KEE win came in her first start over rain-softened ground like she’s going to find again here. SMILING CAUSEWAY was a very good 3yo turf-sprinting last year and could be in for a nice summer, but we’ll see how she copes with these conditions in her first start as a 4yo. DREAM BABY DREAM was defeated by TITLE READY in February at Oaklawn but might be the more ascendant of the Asmussen pair right now while making just his third start in blinkers though both horses look capable at square odds. Title Ready will have to be used a bit at the start to get position from post 11, and I wouldn’t want to see him lit up and hooked into what ought to be a strong pace. Also, to be frank, he should’ve run better in the Northern Spur. DREAM BABY DREAM couldn’t get truly involved in the Ark Derby, but he traveled decently at points, was hurt by the slow pace up front, and might not really want 9f. Class drop, slight cut back, better race shape. My Boy Jack’s good Derby run plumped up the Lexington Stakes form, and PONY UP showed there he can get up to speed on dirt as well as turf and synthetic.

THIRTEENTH RACE

No races run yet this week at PIM as of press time for this analysis, but an outside-closing bias was firmly entrenched all last week at this venue, even after rain turned things sloppy Sunday. There are times, regardless of the class of the race, where a horse’s position during a race means at least as much as their baseline talent, & conditions for this Preakness could be extreme. LONE SAILOR appears to thrive on wet tracks, and could get exactly the right trip if the surface continues favoring the capable horse that makes the last, widest run. He had seriously compromising trouble in the Derby, was not especially hard ridden the final halffurlong, and popped energetically into the gallop out. Could step forward at a price. From photos and video, GOOD MAGIC appears to have come out of his strong Derby 2nd in great shape. Having just hit his peak two weeks ago after two pure preps, and with a solid foundation at 2, he stands a better chance of holding form than JUSTIFY, and at several times the price. Nothing but respect for Justify, the “best” horse in this race. “Best” horses lose races all the time, & I’m not going to cave to a 2/5 favorite who is not without questions just because this is a Triple Crown race. Will also be including TENFOLD in exotic plans.

FOURTEENTH RACE

PHIL’S COCKTAIL just won Sunday under conditions much like what he could encounter here. Excels on wet tracks, in top form, and has handled quick turnarounds in the past. IREDELL gets a mulligan for the sub-par run on turf last time, and merely bouncing back to previous performance level makes him a leading contender. Proven on wet, has a win at PIM - all that said, it’s tough for a horse to keep holding form month after month, and he’s been going steadily since August. SKY CHAPARRAL perhaps over-raced during the winter and early spring, and it might’ve caught up with him last time. Not ruling out a bounce-back, however, and he’s down from actual allowance tries.