ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PAPA TURF

FIRST RACE

Preakness Day at Pimlico, first post at Santa Anita 12 noon. Downhill horse-for-course RED LIVY is a three-time winner on this layout, dropping from $50k claiming to the $25k level of her most recent win. The speed of the speed, she can be gone despite the presence of two others with similar styles. If the pace falls apart, GIRL DOWNSTAIRS could be along in time. A closer, she was claimed last out from a runner-up finish in a race won by a pacesetter. The splits should be lively; ‘DOWNSTAIRS will have every chance to win from behind. LITTLE BIT LOVELY adds blinkers again; she is a four-time winner on the hill including two wearing the hood. GIANT MONGOLIAN and LORI’S ATTITUDE are the aforementioned pace rivals for the top choice.

SECOND RACE

Through Sunday, trainer Doug O’Neill already started four 2yos this meet (one win, two seconds). A fifth maiden 2yo, Settle It, was favored Thursday in race 3. CARNIVOROUS is the latest O’Neill-trained 2yo sired by Square Eddie; the debut colt’s snappy works suggest he might take after full brother Sizzlin Square, a 2yo debut winner here in 2016. TAKAHIRO’S DREAM posted a pair of apparently sharp recent works at San Luis Rey; the first-time starter is trained by Adam Kitchingman. The past five years, Kitchingman is 7-for-40 with debut 2yos, while producing a flatbet profit ($3.19 return for each $2 wagered to win). LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH adds blinkers for his second start. He dueled three-wide and tired in his debut. Improvement likely second out.

THIRD RACE

CARAY moves to an outside post where he should get a great trip pressing the speedster drawn in post two. CARAY disappointed last out; his runner-up finish two back is plenty fast enough. The cutback to five and one-half furlongs is an added benefit. CATFISH HUNTER has not been seen since a maiden romp in November. He is the fastest in this field based on that romp, but making his first start following a layoff of nearly six months. INSUBORDINATION is the aforementioned frontrunner in post 2. He is probably the best of the speed. TWO HAIL MARYS will roll from behind in a race that could set up for an off-pace runner.

FOURTH RACE

Runner-up in a maiden-50 that was flattered when the third-place finisher returned to win, BRANDON’S LAW is the one to beat as she stretches to a mile and one-eighth in another low-caliber maiden-claiming race on turf. CALIFORNIA BREEZE returns to her preferred footing, which is grass. Her ability to stay the distance is uncertain, but her grass races in winter and this spring were somewhat decent. INTERNATIONAL DIVA figures off her creditable fourth-place debut in February, but two subsequent starts were blah. TROPHY BRIDLE stretches out, drops in class and adds Lasix as an upset candidate in a soft race.

FIFTH RACE

JUST BE HELD lost her chance at the break last out. A front-runner/presser, she ducked inward from the rail, was away last, and that was the end of that. But her runner-up finish two back in a $25k claiming N2L was okay; she can make amends

in this $12.5k N2L with a clean takeoff. The 3yo MYRCELLA is a four-time winner facing older fillies and mares that have not won two races. MYRCELLA also gets a five-pound weight break. Last out, she finished more than six lengths clear of third. MAJESTIC DIVA has been stuck at this bottom-level N2L class for five races, and yet her speed figures make her one of the top contenders.

SIXTH RACE

CATALINA CRUISER won his only start last fall like a colt with promise; he won clear with a big fig (89 Beyer). This is the 4yo’s first start since. He returns with sharp works for trainer John Sadler and should fire first start back. BEST TWO MINUTES is a six-time winner entered for the optional $40k claim tag in this N1X/optional claiming sprint. His runaway win in late March is fastest last-start performance in the field. SWISS MINISTER moves up in class after crushing state-bred allowance foes despite an imperfect start.

SEVENTH RACE

The pick six starts here. ENGLANDER finished with interest last out in a similar MSW turf sprint. The lightly raced (two starts) colt might eventually want to run long, but if he gets pace to run at in this downhill dash he should be along in time. FACTS MATTER may have more speed than the top choice. He adds blinkers and switches to a surface he is bred for. Sired by The Factor, he is the first foal from a dam that won 12 races including three on grass. JIMMY CHILA drops from the Santa Anita Derby, a race that turned out fairly productive. The winner Justify returned to win the Kentucky Derby; third place finisher Core Beliefs returned to finish second in a G2 at Belmont. JIMMY CHILA drops in to face maidens, perhaps a little more his league. Second-time starter ALFAREED is speed.

EIGHTH RACE

PAPA TURF was re-claimed last out by Keith Desormeaux. The last time the gelding was in the Desormeaux stable, he won a similar mid-level claiming sprint from off the pace under jockey Kent Desormeaux. Same connections this time, similar class level, and first start in nearly two months for ‘TURF, who runs well fresh. EIGHTY THREE, third-place finisher in five straight races, will be grinding late. BARGAINING moves up multiple class levels after a $12.5k claiming win. That is a positive move.

NINTH RACE

MOONLESS SKY inherited victory in this state-bred stakes last year when the winner was disqualified, but ‘SKY has done enough since then to suggest she can win this race a second straight year even without stewards getting involved. Runner-up by a nose to since-retired graded winner Majestic Heat in a similar state-bred turf stakes last summer, ‘SKY won an N2X turf mile two back with a big late rally that would work in this spot. There is enough speed in this race to set up her rally. CORDIALITY was supplemented to this race; she stretches to two turns and could tuck into a cozy trip right behind the speed while positioned in front of the deep closers. She probably would get first run if/ when the pacesetters tire. She also is honest, 20 starts produced 7 wins and 6 seconds. SPEAKERS is a deep-closing longshot in a race that could fall apart up front. Her best win was merely a statebred N1X, but when she fires she does pack a wallop late. Off-the-pace price play? HOW ABOUT ZERO was uncomfortable last out in an off-turf sprint. Grass is her preferred footing.

TENTH RACE

Although PERFECT WAGER lands the inside post for the third time in three starts, the class-drop maiden is the call anyway. He finished fifth in his debut after a slow start, fifth again next out when he was quicker from the gate, dueled to near the furlong pole and then faded. He drops for the first time to state-bred maiden-50 and can score with a clean takeoff. It will not be easy, however, because he is not that quick and there is speed directly to his outside. NORTH COUNTY GUY finished more than three lengths clear of third last out in an open maiden-30; these state-breds are not any tougher. ‘GUY figures for an in-the-clear trip, pressing or stalking from the outside. BLESS HIS HEART finished an okay third in his debut, while benefitting from the pro-inside bias in the stretch. NOVA popped with the best race of his career last out, a highly rated runner-up finish somewhat validated when the third-place finisher returned to win.

ELEVENTH RACE

Close call in this N1X route between lightly raced DOWNTOWNER, a maiden winner last out, and IKE WALKER, a veteran with 11 career victories. The call is the lightly raced 4yo with room to improve. DOWNTOWNER finished well for a maiden victory last out at odds-on; this is just his third start back from a layoff and fourth start overall. Good works since raced, tactical speed for a pressing trip outside, and likely to move up with racing experience. IKE WALKER misfired last out; he won this condition two back when he was re-claimed by Jerry Hollendorfer. If one subpar race (his most recent start) can be disregarded, the gelding enters as the “fastest” in the field on numbers. SWAYZE stretches out and adds blinkers after a good fourth-place sprint comeback; KID CHARMING finished only a neck behind IKE WALKER two back.

TWELFTH RACE

In a wide-open turf raffle, SECRETO PRIMERO gets the call stretching back to a route first off the re-claim by trainer Mike Machowsky. PRIMERO finished fifth with some trouble last out; two previous starts (mile, sprint) are fast enough for this $20k claiming field. All three wins by ‘PRIMERO were for Machowsky before he was claimed away in fall. TRIFECTA drops off a fourth-place finish in a mile and one-eighth turf race from which he was claimed for $25k. He won a similar $20k turf mile two starts back, and probably benefits by this shorter distance. BOURBON SOUL will be rolling late, while GENERAL IKE has only one option from post 12. That is, speed to the lead and see how far he can last. CROWN THE KITTEN has the best figures.