ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, LEMON BLITZ

FIRST RACE

STORMY FORECAST a new face making his turf debut off the claim after seven starts on dirt for her prior connections; has some speed to go along with a turf pedigree being a Stormy Atlantic half to two turf winners, including Taareef who was a Group 2-and-3 winner and Group 1-placed in France. FREELOAD has run well enough in both turf starts to date to be considered the horse to beat in this spot, including that run off the layoff last time when second-best as the favorite at this level. TOM’S MUSIC has been entered and scratched a couple of times already since the turf courses opened this year; liked his late-running 2yo finale, but it’s fair to wonder if he just didn’t improve with the added distance of that race.

SECOND RACE

Won’t advocate too hard for anyone in this race, but will side with WAY OVER BUDGET who stumbled at the start last time to wind up last, before making a decent run from out of it to get 3rd at a big price; can show more speed in this spot stretching out to a mile, assuming she breaks. ABEJA NEGRA hasn’t done much running so far, but she is lightly-raced and switching from turf to dirt in the right kind of field; lone dirt start came against a better field in a race that featured a solid pace. MAMA’S RED HAT has races in her past that would make her tough in here, but she is nearly impossible to take on top as a 7yo maiden with 43 starts already behind her.

THIRD RACE

Odd race from FRANCIS FREUD off the layoff as she broke fine in that race before dropping out last and offering nothing at any point in the running; dropping back down for her second start back in a race that projects to feature some pace, and it’s not like she doesn’t have the races to be competitive in here. TOO FAST TO PASS hasn’t carried his good form with him into NY, where he is 1 for 13 so far, but did run pretty well 2 and 3 starts back, and he does have some turf form way back in his running lines. RANGER IN PARADISE wound up moving up the rail to contest the pace in his first NY start last month, and he lasted for 3rd after proving to be no match for the 1-2 finishers in that race; 0-2 on turf in his career, but one of the those came in his career debut, and the other came off a layoff against the talented Pay Any Price. EXCLUDED can easily win here as he makes his second start at the level and third off the layoff, but he had no excuse last time after a perfect trip put him on the lead in the stretch.

FOURTH RACE

COPPERLINE making a belated career debut nearly halfway through her 4yo year, but she goes for a trainer who is on a pretty good run in NY right now, and she has some pedigree as a Kitten’s Joy out of a dam who is a sister to the Grade 1-winning turf sprinter Next Question; this is the female family of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Singletary. Liked DREAM PASSAGE’s return from the layoff where she made a strong three-wide move to take over around the turn, before being closed down by a good winner at the end, but that turns out to be just another race where she has run pretty well to no avail while earning her typical figure in the midto-high 60’s; tries a shorter sprint second-time back. FIVEINTHEMORNING making her 3yo debut off the layoff, where she is back to sprinting for her good trainer; thought she ran well in her career debut at Saratoga, and he got off to a poor start when unable to impact in her next race. SCORPION BOWL is interesting switching to turf for the first time as a half-sister to New York’s Finest, a four-time winner sprinting on turf for this trainer. STONEFACTOR has some ability to go along with some speed, but she had trouble finishing her races as a 2yo; threat if she has improved during her break.

MIDNIGHT BOUNTY had some trouble in her races immediately following the claim by these connections last year, and she has been unlucky to catch several wet tracks over which she doesn’t seem to be as effective along the way, but she has otherwise held her form well, and she has run winning races in each of her last two starts on fast dirt over this distance; slight drop for this may do the trick. RITZY LASS claimed out of a winning effort at Oaklawn earlier this year at Oaklawn and will make her NY debut off a bit of a layoff for Asmussen; 10-time winner has the kind of speed that projects to play well in this field. MADAME BARBARIAN a closer who will be looking for things to come apart a bit late in this race, but she fits well at this level and she earned a figure two starts back that would make her very tough in this race.

SIXTH RACE

LEMON BLITZ stepped in with NY-breds for the first time at this level off the trainer change and she ran very well in that spot while trying to close from last into a rated pace; the winner of that race came right back to win again with an 82 Beyer while up in class, and LEMON BLITZ faces no rival of that quality in this field. GAMBLER’S FALLACY making her career debut in the right kind of spot for Chad Brown, who doesn’t have a strong record with horses like this (past five years, first-time starter, turf, maiden claiming: 4 for 32, 13%, $1.06 ROI); this one is a by Violence, who is off to a good start at stud, but he hasn’t made much success with his turf runners. SPACE CAPTAIN has improved his figures in each of his first three career starts while dropping in class along the way; showed some speed in that most recent start at Gulfstream before tiring, and he will make his first start off the claim for an excellent trainer here as a new gelding.

SEVENTH RACE

SAMUNA won her first two starts as a 2yo in France and was runner-up in a stakes race in her final start, before getting in only one race as a 3yo; made her stateside debut in a Keeneland allowance that held together up front, and she was racing on in that race after getting held up last on the rail for most of the running. Has to stretch out, but like that she has a recent race while the horse to beat, HOMELAND SECURITY is just starting back off the layoff. HOMELAND SECURITY has no such distance questions to answer after winning both starts over this course and distance last year, both of them with game finishes from off the pace; Chad tends to have these horses ready off the layoff. FLOWER FASHION faced some solid competition in France last year while winning 2 of 7, and she ran well with a bit of a trip in her stateside debut vs. Grade 3 horses last September; failed to fire in her first start back, but she is clearly better than that.

EIGHTH RACE

CONQUEST EXPRESSO missed the break in a short field and was a non-factor most recently, but he had found career-best form prior to that run, including a blowout score vs. two-life claimers with a new top figure in his final start of 2017; bounce-back candidate reunites with Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for that big win last November. APPEALING HENRY pulled off a big upset off the layoff back in December while earning a new Beyer top, and he has since made three starts vs, better horses than this; dangerous on the drop. LIGHTNING BUZZ was badly compromised while racing wide over a track that featured a strong rail in his first start off the claim for his underrated trainer, but he has improved from there to run well in all four starts since including a surprisingly easy win two starts back.