ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, CANOOCHEE

FIRST RACE

GOING ABROAD has a pace edge in this sprint, and he figures to take full advantage of it if he’s able to break cleanly; settled for the place going slightly longer last time out but he was under pressure in the early stages. WON DOZEN BANKS has been away a long time, about 21 months, but if he flashes some early foot he could prove tough, as there’s not all that much speed in here; note the barn’s record with new faces. FACTOR THIS IN has the rail, and he showed some surprising early foot in his latest.

SECOND RACE

JUSTICE FOR SHEENA caught the eye with a nice run late to get 2nd two back at Laurel, and whether it was a regression in her 2nd start off the layoff or an issue with pace she can be forgiven for the dull try last time; top pick for turf. If on dirt, BATTLE TALE, who is entered for the Main Track Only, is the top pick, and she’ll be very tough at this level if she gets to run; Beyers make her formidable, obviously, though she’ll be a short price. SMART ROMANCE will likely scratch if it comes off the grass but on the turf she has to be considered a threat in the lane.

THIRD RACE

ZEALOUS SCHOLAR showed a bit of a rating gear in the win at Penn National last time, which could prove key, as that should mean she’s able to avoid a duel with the other main speed in here, NATURAL WARRIOR; if she’s able to stalk that runner and make a run off the turn these could complete a two-speed exacta. The latter will take them as far as she can on the lead; she doesn’t have the best of win percentages but in several of her recent races she was against race flows. BERTRANDA has the speed to stay close, and could be sitting a perfect trip if the top pair do engage in a race-long pace battle.

FOURTH RACE

CANOOCHEE, the first starter out of an unraced dam, has some sharp breezes showing for her debut, particularly that most recent work, and she meets a seemingly vulnerable group for her debut for trainer Greg Sacco; DARAY has proven speed, and she could shake loose in the opening stages today; she stopped despite having a clear lead three back but that race also resulted in a 39 Beyer, which could well be good enough to win this. CAPE TOWN TREASURE figures to show some early zip from this inside post.

FIFTH RACE

DEZZER was far up the track in her first start against winners but she was in against stakes company, albeit NY breds, and she had a very tough trip, first stumbling at the start and then getting caught up in a duel in a race which set up well for the closers (note bold “C” in DRF running line); should be tough on the lead today, assuming a clean getaway. A J’S WAY was overmatched in his latest but should appreciate this drop in class, into a beaten claimer; has the speed to stay close from the start. MR. PETE is another New York bred shipping in and he’s clearly a threat here based on his best Beyers, even off a sub-par return try.

SIXTH RACE

LILL MAVE is the pick if this race stays on the grass, as she had been improving before the layoff; in fact, her latest resulted in the best Beyer of her career, and she will be a handful today if she can replicate that figure. STORM CRY has decent races on both dirt and turf, and she retains Gallardo, who was aboard last time at Tampa when she was a good 2nd behind a subsequent repeat winner; ability to lead or rate another sign of her versatility. WOMAN FLYER makes her first start off

the claim for trainer Charlie Harvatt, who has had success of late with such runners; another with tactical speed, and she has some decent works showing.

SEVENTH RACE

NOTACATBUTACARD faced some decent fields at Tampa this winter but he showed some flashes of ability despite finishing off the board all three times; returns as a gelding and meets a seemingly average field for this level. DR. HIPP is easy to like given the connections, and the debut run wasn’t all that bad; trainer Chad Brown of course tough with all types, but note the 29% win rate with stretchouts and maidens making their 2nd career starts. MEGACITY is kin to two starters and both were winners; dam was stakes placed and was best routing.

EIGHTH RACE

YANKEE TAR posted his lone career win in a sprint but he hasn’t run badly in his route races, including his latest, when he was caught wide on the first turn prompting a couple of stretch-out sprinters; expecting him to improve off that run. BLUEGRASS POSSE will try turf for the first time if this race does in fact stay on the green; either way, he has the speed to work out a forward trip, and the pace could be controlled after scratches. CASINO KING ran a big race two back, nearly overcoming a troubled trip and the race flow, but he threw a clunker last time; solid try in his lone turf try to date.

NINTH RACE

BLANK PAIGE is widest but she has the speed to get position, yet she can also rate, as she proved in the maiden win two back; that should enable her to fall into a favorable trip just off the pace, which figures to be contested. JERSEY RICH should certainly be in position to take advantage of a quick, pressured pace, if that is indeed the scenario; she ran well enough in defeat on a couple of occasions here last year. HANNA DUE makes her seasonal debut for a barn with a couple of recent wins with horses off layoffs; likely to be a threat in the lane with the right trip/set-up.

TENTH RACE

RED BROOK ROAD seems well spotted in her seasonal debut for Team Machiz, as she has a proven late kick and this finale features enough speed to set her up. CUCKOO FORCONONUTS is the one to beat off her nd latest, a 2nd-place finish at Laurel where she posted a career-best 36 Beyer; that figure is good enough to win this, if she can run to it. GO BLACK BETTY is the /5 ML favorite but she may be one to try to beat, as she failed in her latest at Tampa despite a clear lead in a paceless race; horse that blew past her came into the race with a 12-0-4-3 record.