ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, TOP OF THE PAGE

FIRST RACE

CREA’S BKLYN LAW’s lone win came sprinting in a driving rain strong when shipped out of town, but he has run well while finishing 3rd in his first three starts and he was in way too tough in each if his four starts following that wet track win; didn’t have much to offer in his first start of the year after some mild trouble, but this is the right spot for a trainer who has excellent numbers first time for a tag (past five years, first time for a tag, dirt: 7 for 15, $4.40 ROI, 4 for 6 in routes in that sample). MAIMO improved to run a competitive race for the first time two starts back at Laurel and he looked like a different horse when returned to NY and stretched out for the first time to demolish maidens; interested to see if he can back that race up. STRONGER has yet to do anything to catch the attention on the track, but he has faced better horses than this along the way and his last race is a throwout after getting off to a terrible start and losing all chance; drops from a good post. TALE OF MIST likes to settle but he is consistent and has the right running style for this race; back quickly for good trainer who has struggled mightily lately (Toscano over past 90 days: 3 for 92, $0.46 ROI with all starters).

SECOND RACE

ANDREA’S PRIDE a half-sister to a three-time winner on turf, and she is from a dam who posted both career wins over grass and is a sister to the remarkable Presious Passion (3x Grade 1 winner on turf, over $2.6 million in earnings); Clement’s barn seems to be starting to come alive, and he is very good with first-time starters in turf sprints, especially in NY (past five years: 8 for 31, 26%, $3.20 ROI). TOONIE LOONIE closed late and got up for 2nd behind a Wesley Ward firster who had fought off a couple of challenges on the lead in her debut earlier this month; trainer tends to improve them through racing. MOONLIGHT ROMANCE debuted on dirt at Keeneland for Ward and could only chase her faster stablemate to no avail, while finishing clear in 2nd; new sire off to an okay start at stud, and he has gotten a few turf winners, so far. NO LIMIT BABE tried that Ward firster on the lead in her turf debut as the favorite, but was turned away and then out-finished by TOONIE LOONIE late, and she was a huge price when running okay first-time out. ATCHATA is a sister to five turf winners from this dam, but Asmussen does not have a strong history with first-time starters in turf sprints: past five years, 4 for 57, 7%, $0.82 ROI.

THIRD RACE

This race is likely to have a different look come post time having three coupled-entries, with two of those having the same rider named on both halves, and another horse entered back after running here on Saturday. TOP OF THE PAGE goes it alone making his NY debut for top connections after winning two of his last three starts on dirt at Gulfstream, both wins coming with off-the-pace runs in races that featured ordinary paces. Looks like a good fit at this level and his new trainer has a strong record second off the claim on dirt (past five years, 26 for 87, 30%, $2.44 ROI). IMPERATORE part of an entry for Diodoro and only one will run with Choen named on both; just missed two back off the Diodoro re-claim after taking the race to an odds-on favorite and getting a stretch lead, only to be closed down late. WAR EAGLE’S RETURN cutting in half after turning back and failing to make any kind of a run in disappointing effort for $25k last month; was in good form over the winter for different trainers, and he ran well over this distance a couple of times.

FOURTH RACE

DYNATAIL has not run particularly well in her first two starts of the year, though she was in way over

her head in the first of those and she couldn’t get to the lead at Keeneland last time. Has the back races to be tough in a spot like this, especially if she can get to the front as is predicted by the TimeformUS Pace Projector. PAS DE SOUCIS arrived stateside last summer with stakes credentials from France, and she looked good defeating allowance horses at Saratoga after a good trip, in what would be her only start as a 4yo; starts back off a similar layoff to the one she was returning from into that Saratoga race, this time for a new trainer. IN THE LEE still lightly-raced and progressing for Shug as she makes her second start off the bench; no excuses last time after making her own pace, but she just ran into a better horse that day; tough if stepping forward, and she won’t be compromised by pace.

FIFTH RACE

MISS MONK showed speed in a pair of starts around two-turns at Gulfstream to begin and she looked like a horse who was still figuring things out in those races while late to engage when challenged; cuts back with blinkers on and her bottom can serve her well in this spot. KEOTA a firster for top connections with a turf pedigree, and she has been training right along leading up to this race; Kiaran has a good record from a limited sample debuting turf sprinters, and they don’t seem to get bet like his new dirt horses can (past five years, turf sprints between 5 and 7 furlongs: 4 for 19, 21%, $6.48 ROI). QUAFF was no factor in her lone start as a 2yo but she appeared to need that experience while looking a bit green and then having to steady on the far-turn; has some pedigree and gets Lasix for her 3yo debut. POCKET BOOK has speed for a hot trainer and is a big threat if she can get six-furlongs.

SIXTH RACE

SENTRY returned with class relief but he ran well several times without winning while spacing his races out last year, and he seems to be improving while finally putting races together as a 4yo; has little chance two back while chasing a loose winner who had plenty left in the stretch, and he won easily with a good finish last time, even though that was a weak field. FOLLOW THE SIGNS blew out a bad field of maidens on the drop at Saratoga last summer, and he ran well after getting caught up in a fast duel in his first start off the claim in December; big threat here if ready off the layoff, which hasn’t been a strong suit for this trainer (past five years, 120-180 day layoff, turf: 3 for 34, 9%, $1.37 ROI). KING OF SPADES one of four in here exiting the 6th race from April 28th for this condition, and he was unlucky there while getting squeezed out of contention late in a race that was coming down to a blanket finish.

SEVENTH RACE

Like this spot for firster ANTLEY’S COURAGE who is by a sire off to a very good start at stud, and is a half to four multiple winners from this dam, including two stakes winners; Rice tends to give then a race at the start, but she is capable of winning right away. FLIPPED had a good trip before coming up short behind an improved Buss the Bell two starts back while off the claim; back to dirt as a new gelding after failing to improve on grass. O SHEA CAN U SEE landed a good trip at this level last time and improve to just miss with a new top figure; layoff of over two months since that race is a concern and he has been scratched by the vet in the interim.

EIGHTH RACE

REVERSETHEDECISION made a favorable impression on debut despite appearing to really need that race, and she came back with an impressive win while flying late to run over stablemate Too Cool to Dance, who returned to post an easy win here last week. BOUNCY encountered nd some trouble at the start of her Keeneland debut but she always traveled well in that race while racing wide, and she was a clear-cut winner at the end with a solid figure; plenty of upside for top connections. INITIATE had a no chance trip in her 2017 finale behind a rated pace, but she kept blowing stretch leads prior to that race without excuse; blinkers on for her first start back, and her speed always makes her dangerous.

NINTH RACE

CAN DO ANYTHING only got in one start as a 2yo but he ran well there after breaking slowly and then rushing forward and then chasing a front-running winner through the stretch; starts back on turf with some pedigree out of a talented dam whose first four foals are all winners on grass. HEZA KITTEN hasn’t run fast yet, but he has shown some run along the way while encountering a troubled trip in his career debut, then mid-moving over yielding ground in his second start; second off the layoff for a trainer on a good run right now. HIGH PROMISE has run some of the better races in this field so far, but he has also had his chances and has failed to come through without many excuses; coupled with California shipper MONEIGH MOPROBLEMS, who has also run well enough on turf to be a big factor here.