ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MY GOOD MAN

FIRST RACE

Main-track-only WHATS THE QUESTION is rolling now and stays the distance more comfortably than some of the others here who appear to be hoping for a rain-off. BRICKYARD KITTEN chased home PRIME TIME MAN when they ran 1-2 on May 6 at LRL, but was gaining late and probably has greater upside on the day and at a better price than PT Man.

SECOND RACE

CONSIDER THIS plugged steadily away to come home second of six debuting in a one-turn Gulfstream Mile - a decent enough introduction to racing. Pedigree of a true route horse and could be set to take the needed forward move second time out. SLIM FIT almost certainly on lead in first two turn try, and if she makes it easily the race probably is for second. Not convinced that happens, though, and probably goes postward an underlay. RAIN ON THE DUNE is the rare offspring of Frankel to be racing in North America. Pedigree, form all turf, but must have shown someone at least a little something on dirt to get an entry here.

THIRD RACE

TRADE THE PICK was switched to turf last out and suddenly woke up. Finished fifth of 10 and most of the beaten lengths came to a runaway winner. Moreover, the trip was pretty lousy after breaking from an outside post, and he figures to get a much more favorable journey here at 15-1 on the morning line. ZAP CAT is the pick for dirt - and a very mild one at that given his long history of finishing close without winning. Best chance will come in a winnowed-down field if this is rained off. KIERLAND probably will be the favorite if the race stays on grass. Lost 11 and breaks from post 12 - don’t ever want short prices like this.

FOURTH RACE

SELLING STONES’s last four dirt races might well suffice to get her home in this $5K conditioned claimer, and even her turf try while racing for 2.5X the claiming price paid two back was encouraging. Can lead, press, or stalk and has coped with various dirt conditions. GIMME KIMMY on paper looks inferior to her coupled stable-mate LOST ON THE STAIRS but at least shows a recent published work where LOTS, unraced since early April, does not.

FIFTH RACE

Huge field for this $7.5K turf-sprint starter allowance, and there are quite a few that want to be on or near the lead. They just might go fast enough to create major inefficiencies for the leaders and pressers, and give a late-closing type like PROUD MAID MARIAN a chance to get up. She finished pretty fast to win her most recent turf sprint and has only eight turf tries in her career. Don’t mind the layoff given the distance of this race and her solid work pattern for comeback. LAST MINUTE LUCY made her first start after a February claim for a $20K tag on May 3 and now is entered under starter-allowance conditions - the connections are telling us they value the horse. She’s got Canadian turf-sprint form strong enough to win this or come close and seems likely to improve this start. EYE ON BERLIN might just be sharp enough to win her third race in a row following a layoff. Shes’ got a versatile style and is well drawn to deploy it.

SIXTH RACE

I JUST WANNA WIN won with speed to spare last May at PIM in only local start and has hit peak form in two starts since being claimed by current connections. Worked locally May 1 and on paper will get a very solid setup. QUEEN FRANCIS drops from allowance competition and in from PEN, but after a pair of peak performances there’s little room for improvement and more for regression. Ideal trip might be 5.5 furlongs rather than this six, and if pressure comes and the inside paths aren’t great, it’s going to be trouble for the possible chalk. OUR GABRIELLE appeared to move up on a wet track last time, but on the other hand has aging 2017 Fort Erie dirt form to support the

notion she might at least repeat that performance.

SEVENTH RACE

MY GOOD MAN was snapped up for $30K out of career debut this past January in a Gulfstream maiden-claiming route, and basically starts over now as a first-time gelding racing in blinkers and on the main track. Has been working (with verve, from the look of things) over the local surface and should be a price. RARE NOTION still a work in progress but showing signs and races in blinkers for the first time, a potential plus. TOE CURLIN’ KISS looks like he might want more distance than this, and wonder if the debut is a stepping-stone.

EIGHTH RACE

This is one of those races were the range of baseline performance level from top to bottom is very narrow. EVERLASTING SECRET exits one of the worst races of her career, but chased the pace in a $100K stakes with a race-flow favoring closers and lands here in a better spot. Worked back 5/11 and came within a neck of clearing this condition 5/19/17 in her lone previous PIM start. SHE ROLLS exits the same stakes race as Everlasting Secret and finished well in front of her, in great part because she sat back off the demanding pace. Interestingly, this is a filly who nearly always had gone to the front, and maybe she’s learning some new tricks at 5. Wondering if, after the inside paths improved Friday into Saturday, we might see another outside-favoring surface now that the PIM dirt has dried out. CHARITY STRIPE looks marginally competitive. The high-volume, high-percentage trainer Claudio Gonzalez has been quiet so far at this meeting.

NINTH RACE

Fifth career start last out was the first on turf for PERFECTNESS, and while she was far from perfect, she was far, far better than in any of her dirt races. Found the right surface and now gets blinkers to (hopefully) put her into the race more promptly than last time. PENSY MOLL just ran around there racing on dirt in her career debut but showed signs of late life last out when switched to turf. That was a sprint but on pedigree this route should be even more suitable. ANIMAL LADY is the tepid favorite and sure, she has a chance, but she’s taken four losses at this maiden-claiming class or lower, so we’ll sniff around for a little more value.