ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, TOUCHING RAINBOWS

FIRST RACE

GRAYCASTER returns to preferred dirt footing, drops from N1X to $50k claiming 3yos and figures for a great trip pressing the pace in the clear. His third-place dirt finish two back would be good enough. MASTER RULER also returns to dirt, drops in class and draws an outside post after drawing the rail both recent starts against much tougher. The top pair, in the two outside posts, benefit from a post-position profile. Nine of the 20 races this meet at six and one-half furlongs were won by a horse breaking from one of the two outside posts (irrespective of field size). SIR VALENTINE, who changed trainers since raced, will be forwardly placed, along with CANDY CREW. Route-to-sprint dropper PLATINUM EQUITY has faced better. Not sure if sprinting on the main track is his deal, however.

SECOND RACE

Runner-up last out in a $100k stakes, LA LA LAND drops to an entry-level allowance as the logical choice. His last start was somewhat validated when the horse he outfinished for second (Move Over) returned to win a N1X sprint. LA LA LAND will use this race as a potential prep for the Oceanside Stakes on opening day of the Del Mar summer meet July 18. ‘LAND is one of four “live” Phil D’Amato trainees on this card. PEPE TONO is interesting, first-time turf and first-time Flavien Prat. He faced good company (including Justify) much of winter and spring on the Santa Anita main track, but he was compromised due to his closing style. Late-runners can have more success on turf than dirt. If he takes to the footing, he could be along in time. KYLEMORE has been gelded since his most recent start, fourth at a longer distance. He benefits by the cutback to one mile, and a pressing style that could play well in a field without much true speed. Like the top pair, KYLEMORE has faced good company.

THIRD RACE

TOUCHING RAINBOWS looks tough to beat in this N3X sprint. His visually impressive comeback was super. He won by more than four lengths, “ridden out” with a 99 Beyer. He worked well since, is drawn outside where he can set or press the pace in the clear, and enters as the most probable winner on the card at corresponding low odds. If this race unfolds as expected and he wins his fourth straight, the next race for TOUCHING RAINBOWS will be a graded stakes. BLAMEITONTHELAW drops slightly after a pair of creditable efforts in stakes. Runner-up in a $100k race at Sunland with a compromising trip (wide), he followed with an okay third in a G2 that did not unfold quick enough to flatter his rally. Problem is, he might be compromised by pace in this race also, but at least he is in form. He will pick them up late. CONQUEROR returns to the dirt surface on which he finished one-two all five starts. Graded stakes-placed MOE CANDY is making his first start since August. He fits on speed figures, but it is uncertain if he his cranked first start back.

FOURTH RACE

It is a significant class hike from maiden-20 to restricted (N2L) $25k claiming, but IB PROSPECTING gets the call based on her runaway win last out in her return to dirt. She sat behind the pace and ran away late to win by more than four lengths. The filly’s two best races were on dirt, that is the surface she is on again. She can win right back with a similar off-the-pace trip. GET YOURSELF HOME pressed a qjuick pace, opened up and won a Calbred maiden-40 last out. The runner-up finished 10 lengths clear of third. ‘HOME is realistically spotted for her first against winners. BOBBIE LINCOLN has not been seen since her debut victory nearly 15 months ago. She overcame a slow start, won going away, but was vanned off afterward. Good win, she obviously runs well fresh. KENTAN ROAD is a speedster who has been fading on synthetic at Golden Gate. This is an easier group, on dirt.