ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, GROTON ST SCOUT

FIRST RACE

GROTON ST SCOUT back in with claiming company for the first time since posting new tog figure winning her first start for this trainer in her first start of the year; needs a trip from the rail, but this is the right kind of race and the favorites aren’t that strong. MOMENT OF TRIUMPH shipped in off the claim for Diodoro and easily handled a weak field over a mile while failing to finish that race off at the end; like this cut back for her, and Diodoro is strong coming right back after winning first off the claim (past five years, 2nd after claimed by, winner last: 29 for 70, 41%, $2.85 ROI). SATIN SHEETS finally broke through her NY-bred 1x condition in her eighth try while earning the same 68 Beyer she received for winning her career debut; good move dropping in to this spot rather than trying for the much tougher 2x.

SECOND RACE

TRUTH IN THE LIES buried a field of $40k claimers first off the Servis claim last summer, and has since been facing much tougher competition without success; supposed to be tough dropping to this level second off the layoff. ZEVEN hasn’t been up to her best in her last few starts but she has an excuse for that last one when getting hooked into a fast duel and giving way; threat to bounce back if she can get more comfortable up front. FREE N CLEAR also bombed in that race when finishing ahead of only the stopping ZEVEN, but that wasn’t exactly an ideal scenario for her in the first start off the layoff; hasn’t won in awhile but she fits at this level.

THIRD RACE

CAVARADOSSI chased and tired as a heavy-favorite in his career debut, then stretched out and ran a much better race when taking pressure on the lead all the way before failing to stop the talented Just Whistle coming to challenge from a perfect trip; facing some upwardly mobile 3yos here, but he’s not going to be easy to beat if reproducing that last one. CONSENSUS THINKING went favored in his debut but could only chase a good-looking winner there before racing on to get 3rd; half to Grade 2 winner Backyard Heaven can do better with that one behind him. DOMAIN debuted on turf made no impact after getting outrun early; bred to do better on this surface as a son of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Pleasant Home.

FOURTH RACE

INALIENABLE RIGHTS won his career debut with a late run into a contested pace and then spent the rest of his 2yo campaign picking up pieces with late runs in stakes company; has the right running style for this surface and he should handle the switch being a half to a three-time winner on grass. HOKULEA back quickly after taking an inside trip and failing to make an impact after getting held up just a bit vs. two-life claimers last time; prevailed after a good trip when placed back on turf over this distance two back, and this race didn’t come up nearly as strong as it could have for the level. MO DIDDLEY shipping up and stretching out a quarter of a mile for his second start off the layoff; made his turf debut in open company at Churchill and went evenly for 3rd after rating into an outside trip.

FIFTH RACE

Hard to have too much confidence in DAB as he starts back from the rail after losing four straight starts as the favorite last summer, but he did concede the lead and the inside to the eventual winner over that gold rail track on July 31st, and the was once again chasing over a speed favoring track in his next start; looks like a good spot if he is ready off the layoff. BAD TO DAH BONE another new face in this field, he a first-time starter from a dam who could run and whose first four foals are all minor winners; trainer is having a good meet, and he can occasionally pop with a firster at a price. BAREFOOT ANGEL a contender for a good trainer, but he is just about out of chances after 11 starts with seven 2nd-or-3rd-place finishes; no excuse two back when keeping the winner pinned

in behind the leaders in the stretch and then surging to the lead, only to get nailed again.

SIXTH RACE

EPPING FOREST disappointed off the layoff when not looking sharp and failing to produce her late run in a race that was wired by a longshot over Aqueduct turf; better than that and tough to handle if she can rebound getting back to Belmont. OKINAWA shaped with some promise early on before missing time, but she looked no worse for wear when sprinting off the layoff and dominating next-out winner Mominou with a solid figure; be interesting to see how she handles this next step, especially if EPPING FOREST fires this time. FLY coming along nicely for an underrated trainer, but she has to get six for the first time on turf while facing a couple of tough rivals; tipped her hand early on while running an excellent race despite a tough trip in second career start.

SEVENTH RACE

NEWS ANCHOR burned a little money as a 2yo before breaking through in his final start of the year, but not without some excuses along the way, and he has a chance to be a pretty good NY-bred turf horse as time goes on; think he’s better than he looks and like this spot for him if he can step forward in his 3yo debut. NUTZFORBOLTZ has improved on turf and this is the kind of field he fits well in, despite not really being an allowance horse; raced a little closer to the pace than is usual for him last time, but he ran well to just miss at this level two back. PECULIAR SENSATION another who fits better at lower levels, but his good race gives him a look in here and he didn’t exactly have a great trip when stuck four-wide chasing the pace every yard off the layoff. ELENZEE has speed and he can win here, but he’s not one I want at a shorter price.

EIGHTH RACE

TIMELINE looked quite good early on before failing to show up with his best in pair of Grade 1’s to end his 3yo campaign, and he disappointed off the layoff when just not appearing to be all that sharp and then failing to find enough after chasing a longshot winner on the lead all the way; has to do better in this field, but want to give him one more chance, and would like to see them sending for the lead this time from the rail. TAPWRIT almost a full year removed from his career-defining win in the Belmont Stakes last June, after which he managed just one more start; this is likely just a jumping off point for him, but he appears to be training forwardly, and Pletcher has great numbers in this situation (past two years, 180+ day layoff, dirt, route: 16 for 37, 43%, $3.16 ROI). YOU’RE TO BLAME has a tendency to do his best running too late, but he is better off in shorter races around one-turn, which he finally gets here after four straight starts around two-turns; closer will likely have a couple of good horses to run down late in this spot.

NINTH RACE

TOM’S MUSIC may have just found a field here that is too tough for the level, but he did well off the layoff with a surprising show of speed sprinting on dirt, and the best race he has run so far came in lone turf route last November, where he was behind horses and unable to get any momentum for most of the stretch run, before lengthening gamely late once clear. UNFORESEEABLE took a wide trip when dropped to this level off the layoff, and he couldn’t kick with an impressive debut winner in the stretch; drawn out again, but he fits at this level. TEXICAN was no match for Sentry after a good trip when dropped to this level for his turf debut last time; likely contends with a similar effort but don’t expect much price. INEVITABLE bred for turf and he did his best with a good trip before failing to get to a loose VICTOR LOUNGE and then getting out-finished at this level when switched over last time; can do better second off the layoff. Somewhat surprised to see the wellbred MY DREAM dropping in right away for Shug, though he hasn’t done all that much running in his two starts after some trouble at the start both times; he would be no surprise in this field.