ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, ZORALLY

FIRST RACE

Seventh, beaten 6.25 lengths, doesn’t seem so great, but PENDRELL MOON clocked a final quarter-mile of 23.43 seconds, second-best in his $35K 3yo maiden-claimer, when he attained that finishing position last out making just second career start and first on turf. Showing up as first time gelding and blinkers could get him into the race quicker. The high-percentage C Gonzalez barn been blanked with most recent sample of +180 days comebackers but the sample is quite limited (there have been 7 the last two years if you query 150-220 days) and it’s not like these are favorites going down. Main-track-only CHARMING MORTY despite the layoff will look pretty salty here if this is rained off. CONQUEST FALCON got too far back April 22 in most recent turf try and after a higherpriced dirt-sprint claimer last out off the Leatherbury claim he’s right back where he belongs.

SECOND RACE

When they run MAX CROWN for a claiming price, like here, he fires, and the allowance races, like his last start, seem to function more as bridge races. 6yo is but one start removed from a performance that would almost certainly win this. Won’t be much on the price end, and if he is, something is probably amiss. DANNY MY BOY has come back from a long layoff only a fraction of the horse he became last year, but he gets third-after-break class relief and can bounce back sufficiently to get into the exotics. I’M MR. BLUE isn’t a turf horse and one has to suspect that last-out turf try was meant to get him pointed in right direction for this return to dirt.

THIRD RACE

GOOD GENES not only has an against-the-bias trip from his most recent start (he won a three-way pace duel before being passed by two wider closers, the winning trip for most of that PIM card), there’s a chance he winds up the controlling speed in what looks like a paceless sprint. DRIVE AT NITE comes out of same race as top pick and though well off the pace was kept to the inside there (bad idea). He’s set to improve but needs 6f for his best chance to actually get up. TAKE WARNING probably making a lateral class move out of higherpriced age-restricted claimers. Low-percentage connections help your price. Will kate PROPER FREUD, who was re-claimed for twice this price last time and quickly spirited out of NY, beat me at a short price.

FOURTH RACE

Main-track-only SELF START will get a one-turn mile should this $16K N2L claimer be rained off turf (decent chance of that, too). Just dropped down to this level last out, and it’s probably the right one. Stayed well enough in a two-turn 8.5f race to suggest he can make this mile. DETERMINED was awful in his April 28 long-layoff comeback run but is only dropped down to the last claim price paid and could get a favorable forward placement with an alert break. GIN FUZZ was out of his natural conditions in an N3L claimer last time and ran competitively. Now back in with N2L rivals but that gets one back to the fact he’s a 6yo with one career win from 24 starts.

FIFTH RACE

ZORALLY to me was slightly disappointing though she was beaten less than a length last out at PIM stepping into open N1X allowance company off a debut win vs. lesser. Her debut was very robust and perhaps she didn’t really enjoy slop last time. In any case she’s down in class to an MD-bred race and returns to LRL, where she scored that sharp debut win. Offered some value last time but not now. DEEP RED has been going steadily for a year and lacks short-term upside but just holding form gets her into the conversation in this short field.

PEARL GEM unstarted since an encouraging twostart campaign in October. Sits back and picks off the pace rivals Zorally puts away.

SIXTH RACE

Main-track-only IREDELL would be back on somewhat short rest but his dirt form just looks too strong for these with anything close to his recent standard. BLUEGRASS BALL returned from sevenmonth break last out with a decent-finishing, close fourth, and typical second-after-layoff forward move back toward his 2017 best makes him viable in a very tough race. POISED FOR ACTION has only three turf-sprint races among his 24 starts, and he might actually be best at that! Pipped by Bluegrass Ball last time he raced on grass.

SEVENTH RACE

Be this turf or dirt - she gets over both adequately - AMAPOLA gets the short-sprint trip she needs to be most effective. Might be better on grass note the long gap back to third in her runner-up showing two back at TAM. SKYLAR STREET debuts for a barn with a really lousy first-time starter record, and their MSW firsters the last several years have done little running. That said, all those horses went off at long prices while this filly has a legitimately flashy work pattern for debut. 4yo was breezing at 2 and 3 and had to stop both times, but she appears to be set now, and love the pedigree for turf. DEARBORN has plenty of first-time-starter appeal on pedigree and work pattern, but trainer T Proctor’s decent sized sample of first-timers at LRL strongly suggests swerving them at shorter prices.

EIGHTH RACE

MOONSPELL might have to be coaxed into winning but their ought to be ample pace to set up his standard late run, and he wound up down on the worst part of the PIM surface last time. TOTALLY UNEXPECTED freshened up since April 2 race, is quick enough for 5.5 furlongs, and has a few runs last form cycle that would fit this spot. ARIZONA BABY was in one class level higher than this off the claim last out and ran against the race flow when a mildly competitive fourth in similar spot two back. Seems to have some latitude for improvement right now.

NINTH RACE

BIDDING CIRCLE is on the one hand pace-dependent but on the other progressive with just three career starts only two of which were turf routes. CONTRARIAN, the pick for dirt, stopped badly last out at KEE while facing stronger competition than she’d meet here on the main track, and might in any case be a need-the-lead sort. GOING OUT has the pedigree to be an absolute star. Alas. First Lasix, first blinkers, and perhaps a return to turf could bring out something better.

TENTH RACE

GNARLY is entered main-track-only for career debut and homebred by sire with published $15K stud fee has been posting steady enough works for this $40K MCL debut. IF ONLY I COULD looks very live first time out should this stay on turf. Full brother to Do What I Say, who won easily in turf sprint debut and went on to be stakes-caliber in such races. ME DARLIN KARA looks best - turf or dirt - among those with established form.