ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MEGSTONE

FIRST RACE

The first race is tricky in that it is loaded with speed, but without a clear off-the-pace horse that stands to benefit... giving the nod to OCALA CHROME, who is a speed horse, but one who has recorded two of her three victories from a tracking position. THE CAKE IS A LIE, on the other hand, has been more of a need-the-lead type. She is fastest of these when at her best, but her last was disappointing and she is now being rather aggressively spotted. MERRIL’S BANK figures to throw down early given that she has used that strategy with success. She opened up a 15-length lead here last out in the slop, and lasted, though she was a tired mare at the wire.

SECOND RACE

Uncoupled stablemates HIGH FIVE COTTON and SCOBEYVILLE are the preferred runners in this $12,500 conditioned claimer. Both have run quickly at times and seem to fit against this level of competition. Perhaps a slight edge goes to HIGH FIVE COTTON, who has move-forward potential with a cutback in distance from routes to go six furlongs. DUKE OF DENVER has the best ratio of wins to starts (3 for 14) of any of these N4L runners, and he also performed well to be third against what seemed a superior $12,500 claiming field when third in the mud at Monmouth Mar 13; just as capable on fast dirt tracks; versatile running style is a plus.

THIRD RACE

OOZLE proved a cut below what was required within the straight maiden ranks in New York and is now given class relief by trainer Chad Brown, who sets him to New Jersey; shorter trip may also suit this one, though to date he has come up empty in the stretch, no matter the distance. ALTER RHYTHM has twice been second in as many starts, though one came for a tag and the other in a maiden race at Gulf that fell apart late; rates behind the OOZLE due to having no early speed. TRAJAN’S ARCH is a Brian Lynch-trained first timer that has been a long foundation of works; recent drills have been slow, but this one did work a quick half-mile from the gate at Keeneland in April.

FOURTH RACE

DOUBLE DOWN DONNA just outran TYBEE in finishing second in a May 13 race in the slop in which TYBEE ran fourth; difficult to tell if the slop was the reason for the outcome, or if ‘DONNA is simply superior, but expecting ‘DONNA will be the better price in here and therefore giving her the benefit of the doubt. TYBEE appears to have more early speed, enough to put her in an up-close position, likely close to a slow pace; already 10 cracks in the post-maiden ranks, though. Turnbacker MARKET HIGH is another that figures to be prominent early, though her history of fading results in her being placed behind the top two; beaten double-digit lengths in six of eight starts since breaking her maiden, though most were against superior opposition.

FIFTH RACE

Hoping JERSEY MOOSE IS LOOSE has upside in her second start after being outrun when sixth of eight in an open maiden $30,000 claimer May 15 at Parx; improvement expected following that debut, plus now she faces restricted Jersey-bred opposition; speed to be involved early. PRINCESS GEORGIA is another secondtime starter that also gets to face state-bred foes for the first time, though she has not run since October and is now going from a turf route to a dirt sprint after closing late to be fourth at Meadowlands last year. MISSION GOOD KARMA bombed in the slop May 13 in a comeback race but seems capable of much better; had a third

and a couple fourths against Jersey-breds last summer at Monmouth.

SIXTH RACE

BONITA BIANCA prefers longer distances and is returning from a layoff, but she holds such a class advantage in this six-furlong race that it may not matter. She is a three-time stakes winner vs. New York-breds, and yet gets to go in this first-level allowance because state-bred victories are exempted under the “other than” conditions here. STARSHIP REINA has two big pluses: speed and Navarro. On the other hand, she also has a history of fading and settling for pieces when she is now running for low tags. SPECIAL DIVIDEND has been first or second in three straight races in New York, though in $10,000 - $12,500 claiming races; doubtful she has the speed to outrun STARSHIP REINA early to get a confidence boost - which should leave her vulnerable to the rally coming from BONITA BIANCA.

SEVENTH RACE

Trainer Jorge Navarro has done little wrong at the meet - winning with 50 percent of his starters - and therefore comebacking GOLDEN RAY rates as the choice despite a hiatus going back to September; speedy and honest, though a pretty limited worktab leading into this. R JOLLEY DREAMER is another Navarro returnee that hasn’t been seen since last year. She, too, fits in this $12,500 claimer, though just 1 for 9 locally and a late runner that usually comes from the middle or rear of the pack. SAMMY’S MINESHAFT at least has raced in 2018, though he still has been away for a couple months leading into this; had everything his own way on the lead last out at Tampa in $10,000 claiming company and faded to second in a six-horse field.

EIGHTH RACE

MEGSTONE drew well in post one in this mile turf race, which should allow this closing filly to sit closer to the pace than usual and at least save ground into the first turn; solid form within the conditioned claiming ranks and going second after a claim. DANGEROUS WOMAN hit the brakes when returning from a layoff May 13 and racing in the slop; must more dependable on turf, a surface on which she is 6-2-1-2. THRICE has underachieved since winning a $40,000 conditioned claimer last summer at Saratoga, going unplaced in four straight starts. Perhaps two failures this year can be excused with one race coming in the slop and another on a synthetic surface at Presque Isle, both when sprinting. Her best races have come in turf routes.

NINTH RACE

BLINDING has been inconsistent since last summer, but did run second last out in the slop when matched against $7,500 conditioned claimers like these; tactical speed and not merely a wet-track horse. SECURED POSITION owns solid Beyers and is dropped in class, but could be disadvantaged by not having raced since last summer, particularly with mostly three-furlong moves on his worktab. NOBLE AND TRUE is a deep closer that is fond of settling for minor awards, which is typical of a horse that comes from well off the pace; managed a second last out, but in merely a four-race field.

TENTH RACE

CHANNEL SURFING gets the nod in this claiming race on the grass due to being trained by Navarro, whose runners have performing at a high level this meet. Less enthusiastically, this mare is 3 for 32 and hasn’t been in action since Dec. 31. TEARLESS comes into this $12,500 by way of Tampa, where he she was second most recently on Apr. 27. The quality of racing there seemed to decline as we progressed later into spring and some stables ventured north; must deal with other speed, which may compromise her finish. STREET HEIRESS just defeated $16,000 N3L claimers at Tampa, though with a ground-saving trip; three wins from six starts for current trainer Kathleen O’Connell.

ELEVENTH RACE

ALL EVEN outran some of these when second May 19 in the slop, but it did not appear the wet surface moved her up. She has been third four times from nine races on fast tracks. REINA LA KELSY was three quarters of a length behind the top choice when third May 19; has a fourth, a second and a third in three starts on dirt this year, but rates behind the top choice due to a lack of early speed. MAMA’S RED HAT, another deep closer, has rallied for some minor awards on dirt this year in New York, but a 44-0-7-5 record suggests this one is best played underneath in the gimmicks rather than on top.