ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

GLENVILLE GARDENS wasn’t at his best on a quick turnaround off the claim when last seen, but 11-time winner is quite a bit better than that and his tactical speed should allow for a comfortable trip here, assuming he is ready off the bench for his new trainer; multiple stakes winner has run well fresh in the past, and he has won 7 of his last 8 starts vs. allowance or claiming company. TICONDEROGA steps back after doing his best and landing a piece after having to alter course late in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy last time; have always thought there was potential for better for this horse, but he is probably at the right level, for now. ALMANAAR was last seen winning a Grade 1 over Beach Patrol at Gulfstream for Chad Brown, but that was over 480 days ago, and he has been sidelined by an injury since; likely too much for these if he can still run, but it’s not like he just show up and win vs. this field. AQUAPHOBIA has held good form for his underrated trainer since the claim last September and he owns a handy running-style; don’t think he was winning last time but he was held up behind horses in the upper-stretch, while the 1-2 finishers were closing down the outside with momentum.

SECOND RACE

CARRERA CAT debuted in a good race for the level last summer and chased on gamely after getting held up briefly in the stretch, and she did well to get 3rd after coming around widest behind an impressive winner when stretched out for her second start; sprints off the layoff for an underrated trainer. BARREL OF DESTINY is bred to be a turf horse and she ran well at a big price in her lone start on this surface as a 2yo; threat if she can improve a bit while picking up a top rider. SHANGHAI DREAMS makes her career debut from a difficult outside post but she has some pedigree as a half-sister to a very good turf sprinter in Ave’s Halo, and her trainer is solid debuting in turf sprints in NY (past five years: 6 for 33, 18%, $3.04 ROI). DREAM PASSAGE needs a scratch to get in but she is the horse to beat if she gets to run after making a strong run to the lead in her seasonal debut, only to get closed down late by Kreesie, who returned to run well in a tougher spot out of that race; don’t mind her cutting back to six.

THIRD RACE

UNION STRIKE a bit of an all-or-nothing play starting back in Grade 3 Bed O’ Roses field that is still in flux as of this writing, but she has been at her best sprinting right from the start and it’s not like her effort winning the Santa Paula in her 3yo debut last April even leaves her all that much to find in this field; fact that she has managed only one start since breaking on her face in the Grade 1 Acorn at this time last year is a concern, but she is starting back in the right kind of race, and it’s not like the favorites, while good, are so scary in this field. AMERICAN GAL is the horse to beat right back after picking up her second career Grade 1 on Derby weekend while encountering a wet track for the first time; 5-for-6 sprinting in her career and she cannot be compromised by pace. LEWIS BAY fits well here with her best effort, and she was perhaps the one to take out of the Humana after getting pinched back to last at the start and then making a strong run to contention, before flattening late; appeared to have her shot at the Madison two back while sitting a trip and looming at the top of the stretch, but she couldn’t find enough and came up short. IVY BELL is pretty good and deserves another shot at AMERICAN GAL on a fast track, but she may opt to stretch out in the Grade

1 Phipps on Saturday.

FOURTH RACE

Struggled with this race and ultimately sided with BLESSED HALO’s upside. He began with some promise as a 2yo and improved from start-to-start last year before taking a big-priced shot in the Woody Stephens, and he stepped up on turf off the layoff to ring up a new top figure while in control of that race throughout; this is tougher but he should be a fair price. DOWSE’S BEACH was always good, but he upped his game off the claim for this trainer to go back-to-back last summer, and then just missed in a Grade 2; saw him form tail off at the end of the year, and while he was easily handled by that good field off the layoff, he can benefit from this turn back. SALMANAZAR sped to the front and easily won his turf debut off the layoff, and he ran another good one on the cut back last time despite being no match for an impressive winner in the stretch; has to get the six here but he’s fast and, like the top one, has upside. Not sure I’d want SANDY’Z SLEW as the favorite in this field, but he has been in good form for sharp connections and he has plenty of back races to make himself tough with the right trip.

FIFTH RACE

SIR TRUEBADOUR caught a wet track on debut but he showed good speed in that race after jumping well and was never in any danger before kicking clear in the stretch; full-brother Regally Ready raced for this trainer and was a crack turf sprinter for a time, but he also went 5 for 7 in his career on dirt. OUTSHINE wound up off the pace in his sloppy-track debut for Pletcher, but he had little trouble closing that race down after floating wide to the stretch; expensive purchase may have more to give down the line, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him find more speed through racing. GIRLS LOVE ME moves into a tougher race after winning his debut for a protected $40k tag, but he made a nice appearance in that race and did some good things there after breaking awkwardly and then attacking the pace; we’ll see. MAE NEVER NO a filly tackling the boys after handling stablemate Abyssinian (who came right back to post an easy win of her own with a 71 Beyer) under confident handling first time out; drew well on the outside.

SIXTH RACE

ENCINITAS steadied out to last at the start of his debut and was in no hurry while outrun to the top of the stretch, before finally setting down and putting in a good late run into 3rd behind a heavily-backed Pletcher firster; well-bred colt appeared to get an education there and can come forward with that experience behind him. BARAHIN got tired late and was ultimately out-finished for 2nd by a big longshot in his Keeneland debut, but only after gamely contesting the pace from the rail all the way; doesn’t appear to be much other speed in this field, unless one of the first-time starters is live. FALLSTAR has taken plenty of time between races so far, but he’s run pretty well in all of them, including his turf debut in his first start for this trainer; starts back on dirt, where he was last seen proving to be no match for eventual Travers winner West Coast early last year, though he didn’t just chuck it in that race when he certainly could have. ILLUDERE has more of a turf pedigree, but he has been training forwardly for an excellent trainer, while SUPPORT OUR CAUSE, who may want a little more distance than this, is a full-sister to Grade 1-placed Going for Broke, who also raced for these connections.

SEVENTH RACE

HAVE AT IT progressed nicely from start-to-start as a 2yo, culminating with an impressive win at Keeneland in his final start of the year; starts back for a good layoff trainer with Lasix on, but has to overcome the outside post. RAGING BULL way the horse to beat as he looks to follow up his impressive debut win, for which he earned a strong 87 Beyer, for Chad Brown; just takes the next logical step, and there didn’t appear to be anything lucky about that performance. PENALTY switched to turf last time after failing to get nine-furlongs on dirt at Keeneland, and he was gamely secondbest there behind a talented rival who got loose on the lead; threat to do a lot better in a more fairly run race. ALMITHMAAR had control in that most recent start on the stretch out, but he failed to put that race away in the stretch and was easily outfinished late; owns dangerous speed and a big turf pedigree as he makes the switch he has likely been looking for, but this is likely as far as he wants to go. THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN earned a solid figure of his own winning first time out, but he got loose on an easy pace there before kicking away, and that trip is not likely to be available to him in this field.

EIGHTH RACE

WESTWOOD stepping up following a career-best effort (his 105 Beyer win back in January came with some help from a strong rail) winning the Runhappy while conceding the lead to a talented horse, and he is one of the few in this True North still with some upside potential; slightly prefer him at a flat six furlongs, but he is 3 for 3 over this distance, and being able to track a bit from the outside may turn out to be an advantage in this race. IMPERIAL HINT ran a series of figures last year that would make him very tough to beat in this race, and he hasn’t necessarily had the chance to get to that level yet this year (he never had to get down to serious business in his 2018 debut vs. overmatched rivals, and he was setting a solid pace over that sloppy track he didn’t have to love before giving way on Derby Day); doesn’t need the lead to be effective, but he has so far been a bit of a bully vs. softer competition, and has never been particularly effective when facing a fast pace. BOBBY ABU DHABI shipping in for Peter Miller, who arrived to win this race impressively last year with Roy H; he has paired up 103 Beyers in his last two starts, and like the top one he still has some upside.

NINTH RACE

SISTERCHARLIE arrived from France with some pretty serious credentials, and she acquitted herself well while coming up short in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks in her only stateside start before hitting the sidelines; was given a perfect trip and ride in the Jenny Wiley off the layoff, but she was

there for her rider when he moved her clear and she finished strong to win that race impressively.

HOLY HELENA facing a taller order here in the face of SISTERCHARLIE, but she is undefeated on turf without distance limitations, and she fired a good one from off the pace to win that Grade 2 over this course last month. EMPRESSOF THE NILE will likely find this competition a bit tough but like her running style for this race, as she can move early and sustain her run, and she has run some good races along the way, albeit not vs. this kind of field. FOURSTAR CROOK is admirably consistent and likes to win races; do wonder whether she is quite as effective going this distance, however.

TENTH RACE

FUNNY KID has rarely run poorly from 18 career starts but he appears to be in the best form of his life since taking on more distance, and he has displayed a strong closing kick in his recent races; kicked hard to close down that Group 3 last time over a quality rival in Ice Breeze. CALL TO MIND the shipper with the best credentials, as he has faced the strongest competition overseas, and has held his own right along; like that he owns a forward running style and that they have reached out for a top local rider; think they may have him to beat even though he has never been quite this far. POSTULATION did his best in a tougher spit last time, now steps back a bit while taking on more distance, which he handled well last year; impressive winning the American St. Leger last year after a perfect trip, and he is handy enough to be in a good position throughout the running of this race. RUN TIME a stayer for a top trainer and is already a winner over this distance; form has been dirtied up a bit since winning the Jerkens.

ELEVENTH RACE

INTO THE BREACH needs to show that he can get there first after six 2nds from his first 9 starts, but he has improved since switched to turf, with that runner-up effort to Rocketry after taking a bit of a blindswitch at the top of the stretch last summer being the highlight; stumbled at the start of his return, and then raced on while down on the rail in the stretch in a race he may have needed. MATHEMATICIAN got held up just enough in the stretch of that last one while stretched out to make one think that he may have been a little unlucky there; owns fine tactical speed for this distance. HAMPTON POINT got in one start this winter down at Gulfstream before going back to the drawing board and he was racing on late after getting outrun in the early stages; well-connected colt has some pedigree and can easily improve enough to be a factor in this spot. MY DREAM bred to get this far from the family of distance-specialist Imagining, and he has had some trouble at the start of both races so far, but he was entered for a $40k tag here last Sunday before scratching; we’ll see.

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility.