ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MAJESTIC REASON

FIRST RACE

If you haven’t noticed yet Street Boss is an awesome turf sire - in the circuits I follow, at least, his offspring nearly always seem to move up on turf if they can run at all, and CALLING MR. SPOCK fits into that category. Reasonable class drop off a couple solid enough MSW efforts. DORCAS CAREY the logical favorite after showing second-start turf affinity (no surprise given pedigree) last out. Not just second of nine there but more than five lengths clear of third. FLYING ON THE GROUND was “unruly” May 5 in second career run and turf debut but perhaps more important for our concerns is the wide turn position in a quickly run race a class level higher than this.

SECOND RACE

DA VINCI’S VISION got away slowly from the rail in career debut and might have more speed than this - and goodness knows this short-field $10K maiden-claimer is looking for a front-runner. Presence of 7-pound bug hints at speed mission. $2K sales buy in capable hands and turned in what might’ve been a decent gate work since last start. LOVE N KIMESTRY’s two best races came under these same conditions - $10K MCL, 5.5 furlongs at LRL. Don’t see much of the TuP to LRL move GOLD BRIDLE makes here. Theoretically down from $30K to $10K but rest assured that TUP maiden-claiming class has a lot more do do with protecting non-winning stock than representing real-world worth.

THIRD RACE

BAD ANGLE BURKE fits the level and has the right style for the apparent race flow. The question is whether he can produce his dirt form on turf, but we’ll note A) he was rained off grass in the maiden and B) is out of a mare whose brother is the excellent turf sprinter Undrafted. TOWNIE claimed out of a competitive GP performance at this class level last time by Cibelli, whose first-off-claim number is lower than I’d have guessed. Fits but is part of a pace brigade too large for my liking. YOU LIKE THAT is blinkers on here but could be a thousand miles behind early while cutting back from a slowpaced route. Right pace setup and he could be along for a share.

FOURTH RACE

Trainer C Gonzalez, DRF Formulator trainer filters reveals, the last five years at Laurel going turf-todirt in 7f or 1M races is 19-8-1-4 with a $3.72 ROI. HASHTAG SELFIE, who fits decently enough, gets a perfect pressing trip outside BALTIMORE STREET and won’t be the favorite. BALTIMORE STREET is down in class and not far removed from contending form but could be slipping right now and absolutely is no sure thing to stay the mile. CROOKIT is supposed to be better than the last two starts, but the drop to lowest level here makes one wonder if she’s going to produce one of those older, better races.

FIFTH RACE

Will bite on likely favorite A GREAT TIME, though there are no doubt other directions to turn in this large field of turf-sprint N1Xers. Good chance she gets cooked on a strong pace if tactics similar to last time are employed, but the pre-layoff form shows a rate-able horse who, through a combination of being keyed up for first start back from a long vacation and breaking from the rail, showed more speed than might need be the case. Should have plenty of upside on the day. WANTAGH QUEEN sucked a bunch of air on the turn while racing over

a ground with some give last time but the other turf sprints in her past performances make the 15-1 morning-line look like an overlay. WHAT THE

BEEP only beat $40K maiden-claimers / MD MSWs last out but drew off with enough gusto in turf debut and fifth career start to imagine her being a legitimate horse.

SIXTH RACE

None of those that’ve started have hit the 48 Beyer Speed Figure par for this class level at LRL, which bolsters the more general sense the race is open to a new face. So we’ll take them one-two. SECOND TIMES A CHARM shows an eye-catching half-mile gate work (at least in terms of times written on the page) and debuts for $1K more than published purchase price. DRF Formulator shows trainer A Farrior with a very strong 8-3-2-2-1 record the last three years with first-timers in maiden-claiming dirt sprints. Trainer R Bailes the last five years with first-timer in maiden-claiming dirt sprints is 6-0-0-0 but a closer look in DRF Formulator shows none of those starters had anything like the encouraging work pattern for debut that HONEST MISTAKE shows. Bargain auction buy debuts for 16X published purchase price. DOIT FOR SPITE didn’t do much for spite or otherwise on turf last out but the dirt debut two back is encouraging enough in this race. But drawn on rail and unappealing as a win proposition at a short price.

SEVENTH RACE

BELTWAY BOB’s last on dirt is a toss and if he comes close to his strong second two back at at a class level higher than this in a start over the LRL turf (there is past form to validate that performance) this should be his third career win. Two works since last and not in for the tag. NEW JERSEY JOHN must draw in from the AE list but that’s entirely plausible and he has the pace to get decent position from wide draw. Well entered for $16K starter after winning a $30K conditioned race last out at MTH. Not a lot of strong signals from quite a few of these or I’d have left GORSE out entirely. Hard to take a short price on a class drop this steep just two starts after a $40K claim.

EIGHTH RACE

HG Motion has a really strong record from a large sample of first-timers in Laurel dirt-sprint maiden-special-weights: 71-18-11-8 with a $2.27 ROI over the last two years. MAJESTIC REASON has a dirt-sprint pedigree and plenty of Fair Hill work for unveiling - perhaps at a fair price. SWIFT VENGEANCE down from NYC for Linda Rice, which is always a double-edged sword in that one figures the horses will fit better in LRL MSWs but presumably aren’t considered up to snuff for the bright lights. Looks at least mildly live and the record with Karamanos is bonkers. TIMELESS CURLS morning-line favorite off a near miss in career debut at PIM but that field was a little squishy, the track was wet, and the low purchase price considering pedigree still is out there.

NINTH RACE

Main-track-only PARADE OF NATIONS on a threerace win streak and would be encouragingly up in class off a claim should this race wind up on dirt. FEAR’s most recent turf sprint, last fall at BEL, came against considerably stronger competition (start with winner Next Shares) and his long-term turf sprint form would make the morning-line price an overlay in my book. MY ENIGMA has had trouble getting into his two races this year after a winter break but the high-percentage barn is keeping the faith in the form of holding steady for $25K tag, and return to 2017 performance level makes him a major factor.

TENTH RACE

Plenty of work, plenty of turf in pedigree for IF ONLY I COULD, who debuts for a capable first-out barn and looks quick enough for this short sprint. SIMPSON faded after early pace pressing debuting on PIM dirt but gets Lasix for second start and when the Bodemeisters can run at all (seemingly not all that common) it often seems to be with move to turf. CYCLOBOMB has shown good speed in a pair of dirt starts and is by the great and surface-versatile sire Into Mischief.