ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, RISKY PROPOSITION

FIRST RACE

The field for this starter-allowance turf sprint looks evenly matched. However, RISKY PROPOSITION can win if he reproduces his fourth on this course vs. allowance company two back. He missed by only a length and a half after chasing a fast pace. He subsequently bombed at two turns; that race is a toss. He is working well for his first in nearly three months, he does run fresh (debut win January). First start back, returning to a sprint, ‘PROPOSITION can win with a frontrunning/pressing trip. SARATOGA MORNING won his only start on the hill, a maiden-50 two back. Like the top choice, ‘MORNING subsequently misfired his first try against winners, but that race turned out “live” with two next-out winners and two next-out thirds. ‘MORNING has been gelded since he last raced, and figures as a contender off his maiden win. His work pattern looks light; only two recorded works since his last start April 20. HONEYMOONZ OVER finished a creditable fourth last out in a claiming turf mile; he benefits by the cutback to a sprint.

SECOND RACE

The cupboard is almost bare in the low claiming ranks. Only five entered this $8k claiming sprint including two outsiders from Los Alamitos. BLAZE’N PROSPECTOR pressed his way to a neck victory last out vs. similar; he figures for another pressing trip from an outside post. LOUDEN’S GRAY won this race one month ago, at the same level and same five and a half-furlong distance. The inside post is a challenge, but he won from the rail here last winter. FOUR GAELS finished a neck behind the top choice last time; he was more than four lengths behind the second choice two back. Los Al-based LOVE YOUR LIFE crushed easier by six lengths his last start.

THIRD RACE

PULPACHEEKS is spotted for an upset in this maiden turf route, following a better-than-looked seventh. She was rank early, took up, lost position, and dropped to last. It was a strange trip. But she finished with run and actually galloped out in front after the wire. ‘CHEEKS is a sibling to G2 winner Cheekaboo (maiden winner third out), she has more tactical speed than she showed last out and meets an apparently modest field of Cal-bred fillies and mares. Price play on top. Blinkers on, because she tends to be easily distracted while she looks around. VENUE showed ability in her debut, rallying from last to fifth in a slow-pace turf sprint. It is difficult to win a maiden route off just a single sprint, but VENUE may have more ability than her low speed figure suggests. Improvement likely. ZILLINDA is an 11-start maiden that finished second last out; RADISH is a 17-start maiden with 10 in-the-money finishes. NOTHING BUT HEAT, a stablemate of the top choice, might be ranked too low by this handicapper. She will figure it out, one of these days.

FOURTH RACE

STREET TO INDY returned to dirt and ran the fastest race of his career (77 Beyer) last out. He finished four lengths clear of third, at this maiden40 level, and will be tough to beat if able to run two alike. Though he is a 14-start maiden, this would be his first start as the favorite. ROARING FORK set a fast pace and finished a clear second last out, although that that was a small-field off-turf race. Win or lose, he will be forwardly placed. MOMMA’S BABY BOY will grind late; TIDAL EFFECT is back with maidens after finishing sixth as the favorite in a starter-allowance sprint for winners. His runnerup finish two back on a “good” track earned an 84 Beyer, tops in this field.

FIFTH RACE

A respectable runner-up effort last out in an unre-

stricted $6,250 claiming route stamps BONNEVILLE FLATS the one to beat. She might be dropping in class to non-winners of two $12.5k claiming.

MISTY SLEW needed 12 starts to finally break her maiden, but these N2L races are often won by lastout maiden-claiming winners. Her recent figures make her a contender. REINAHERMOSA is not a logical win candidate, but she has a reasonable shot to hit the board. Her grinding style is often good for a piece. Since her maiden win in January 2016, she has lost 24 races. Longshot to complete the trifecta?

SIXTH RACE

AIR VICE MARSHAL shortens to a sprint as the tepid choice in a competitive N2X. His recent form at this level is solid; in the money three straight. And, the forwardly placed running style he typically employs around two turns suggests this downhill turf sprint might be just right. CIMPL MAN won this condition, on this course, in October. He adds blinkers first off the claim by John Sadler while running back for the same optional $62.5k claim price. He finished third last out at this level. SIGUR ROS wired N1X foes in his first try on the hill; the improving gelding could be the one to catch. TEXAS WEDGE is 3-for-3 in sprints; this is his first start since November. LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN has upset potential. HIs best races are fast enough for this level, he had an undisclosed alibi for his last-start misfire, and he returns to the downhill course on which he scored his mostrecent win. ‘CITIZEN is one of several with a fighting chance in a wide-open race.

SEVENTH RACE

I’M SASSY returns from a layoff of more than 10 months, with fast works at San Luis Rey Downs, and dropping to maiden-50 Cal-bred for the first time. She showed ability finishing fourth here last spring and gets the call in a race that could a number of ways. First-time starter SISTER NELA, sibling to eight winners (six multiple winners) debuts with sharp works and a 12-pound weight break over the top choice. Trainer Dean Pederson is 5-for-22 with firsters the past five years. CHAMPAGNE HONEY will be among the favorites based on in-the-money finishes all three starts at this level. FIGHT LIKA GIRL flashed brief speed and cracked in her debut. That Calbred MSW raced already produced three next-out winners; ‘GIRL should improve with racing.

EIGHTH RACE

CLEARLY GONE, who put it all together with a sharp maiden tally last out, might be the fastest finisher in this Cal-bred N1X turf mile. She probably benefitted by easy company last time (runnerup Zillinda and placed-third Radish are entered in race 3), but ‘GONE clearly is on her way up. SEA SMOKE, unraced since August, ran races last summer that are “faster” than the top choice. She runs well fresh. ALMOST REALITY made an early move into a fast pace and was unable to sustain her rally last time. She seems like a difficult mare to pilot, but she has run well multiple times at this level and will rally late. Another tough race on a fairly interesting Friday card.