Justify looking vulnerable

When a shot for a Triple Crown sweep is alive into the Belmont Stakes, there is absolutely nothing in the game like it. As great as the Breeders’ Cup is, the electric atmosphere sure to be felt Saturday at Belmont Park will surpass anything else you can hope to experience in American racing.

My hope is every racing fan will at least once get to experience Belmont Park on a Belmont Stakes Day with a live Triple Crown opportunity.

We have Justify to thank for this latest thrill. Justify stands on the verge of becoming only the 13th horse to sweep the Triple Crown after becoming the first in 136 years to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old, and then finding a way to win the Preakness to extend his unbeaten streak to five.

Justify’s Derby performance was outstanding, as he scored by daylight despite disputing a scorching pace that would have fried many a high-class horse. His Preakness was less so. In fact, even though he won, by most measures his effort was the weakest of his otherwise sensational career.

That Justify can win a classic race with a “B” performance speaks volumes of what a horse he is. Justify is the best seen so far of his generation, and by a substantial margin.

Nevertheless, Justify showed in the Preakness that he, like every other racehorse who ever lived, is susceptible to variances of form, and thus is not invincible. Secretariat, the greatest horse of my racing lifetime, had his off days. Onion, anyone? So did Seattle Slew.

Citation, whom the late, great Daily Racing Form chartcaller Jack Wilson once told me only half-kiddingly could beat Secretariat “pulling a wagon,” lost 13 times. American Pharoah lost the Travers to Keen Ice.

Although those noted above threw in the occasional subpar performance, none did during their Triple Crown sweeps. At least none did to the point where it cost them their sweep.

If for whatever reason Justify is incapable Saturday of cycling back to the outstanding form he held before the Preakness, which I think is easier said than done, then it is up to him to at least avoid throwing in an effort subpar to the point that it might cost him the Belmont. He already dodged a big bullet by getting away with one in Baltimore. I don’t think he can get away with it twice.

Justify’s biggest fans would argue that, as he proved in the Preakness, even his “B” race is good enough, and he could win the Belmont with another such effort. Maybe. But what if the Preakness was a signal that Justify’s overall form is tailing off, even if just for the time being?

I was solidly behind Justify in the Derby. I didn’t care that he didn’t begin his career until Feb. 18. For me, his enormous talent trumped any lack of seasoning or 2-year-old racing foundation he might have had. And that’s how it worked out in Louisville. He won as miles the best.

But my fear after the Preakness was that Justify’s lack of foundation for not having raced at 2 could be starting to show and might really mani-

fest itself right as the Triple Crown concludes. There is zero doubt Justify is good enough to win these Triple Crown races. He is more than good enough. It’s just that while Justify’s lack of 2-yearold foundation meant nothing in the Derby, I’m worried it has become critically important in the cumulative sense of the Triple Crown.

In concert with Justify having to answer questions of form and foundation is the hardly inconsequential fact that he must do so while also having to negotiate the Belmont’s demanding 1 1/2-mile distance. At any other time, Justify probably would have no trouble negotiating 12 furlongs. But for him to have to do so now, under these circumstances, seems like yet another very big ask.

The good news here is if Justify wins the Belmont, there won’t be any question about his greatness. Not in my mind.

But when questions of this nature concern a heavy favorite in any race, I rarely think twice about picking and betting against him, Belmont Stakes included. I have immense respect for Justify, and I am a big, big fan. But I think Hofburg will win the Belmont.

I’ve been a fan of Hof burg from early on, too. I was impressed with his maiden victory at Gulfstream in his first start this year when he overcame the sort of wide trip that hardly ever wins 1 1/16-mile races there. I was impressed to the point where Hofburg was my pick in the subsequent Florida Derby, and an underneath pick behind Justify in the Kentucky Derby.

Hofburg ran perfectly fine when second in the Florida Derby, and his seventh in the Kentucky Derby was way better than it looks on paper. He was in tight between horses late on the first turn, was blocked and steadied for much of the far turn while having plenty of run, checked nearing the stretch, yet still finished well and galloped out very well past the wire.

Lots of folks think highly of Hofburg. He has become a darling of trip handicappers, so much so that I expect him to go off the second choice Saturday. But perhaps most tellingly, his Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott obviously thinks the world of him. It was highly uncharacteristic of Mott to run a last-out maiden winner in a race like the Florida Derby and a horse still eligible to the first-level allowance condition in, of all races, the Kentucky Derby.

Hofburg skipped the Preakness. He is fresh, and this is the time for him to take the measure of Justify.

BARBARA D. LIVINGSTON The Triple Crown grind may have Justify at less than his best.