2018 Belmont

How does the Projector

work? The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow.

What is the Pace Projector saying about the Belmont

Stakes? This race is not identified as likely to have an extreme pace, either fast or slow. Morning-line favorite Justify (No. 1) is attempting to complete the Triple Crown and is shown on a clear early lead. His nearest pursuer, Restoring Hope (No. 5), is from the same stable. It is unlikely those two would engage in a battle for the front. Bravazo (No. 3) tracked a few lengths off the pace in the Preakness and finished well for the place. He is projected to be in a similar position this time, and that would seem to give him his best chance. Gronkowski (No. 6) has run only in England and does not have any pace data. Thus, he is not included in the Pace Projector. Gronkowski does not appear to have the speed to be a pace factor in this spot.

Are there any quirks to this particular distance, surface, or field size that the

algorithm adjusts for? Similar to the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby, the “Favors Horses On/ Near Early Lead” designation is not available as an option for the Belmont Stakes due to the sheer distance of the race. Horses don’t steal the Belmont. There is enough speed in this race that the label would not have been displayed for this race, even if it were an option.

Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the past performances, from watching the races, knowing the jockeys and trainers tendencies,

etc., which horse do you think is likely to show more early speed than in this

Projector? Noble Indy (No. 9) has shown high speed in his last two races and is the most likely horse in the field to press Justify for the lead, though he shares common ownership with Justify. He was wide on the first turn in the Kentucky Derby, and the TimeformUS Pace Figures were very fast. Despite the trip, he was less than five lengths behind for the first six furlongs. His prior start, a win in the Louisiana Derby, also was coded red for a fast pace and he was on or near the lead throughout. He does remove blinkers for this start.

Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TFUS Late Pace Figures if the pace

turns out to be hot? Four horses are tightly grouped with the best TimeformUS Late Pace Figures. Blended Citizen (No. 10) leads the way with a 109. Vino Rosso (No. 8), Hofburg (No. 4), and Free Drop Billy (No. 2) follow, and all are within six points of the top. At this extended distance, it is important to analyze pedigree to determine which horses are likely to appreciate 12 furlongs. How have recent editions of the Belmont Stakes developed from a pace standpoint? The last five Belmont Stakes have had every fraction coded as either fast (red) or average. Not a single segment of a race was identified as slow (blue). The key appears to be the opening halfmile. In four of the prior five editions, the fraction is not identified as fast, and in each of those the eventual winner was either on or near the lead at that point. The lone exception came in 2016 when the race was coded fast early. In that edition, Creator closed from well back early to get up in the final strides.