Free Drop Billy

Trainer: Dale Romans Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC Jockey: Robby Albarado Record: 9-2-3-2

STRENGTHS: A colt bred to go the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont, he has been working swiftly at Churchill Downs leading into the race. Over the past three weeks, he has recorded three quick moves, registering two bullet works and a near-bullet on the other occasion. The most recent drill was particularly fast, five furlongs in 59.20 seconds last Sunday. Beyond his bloodlines and swift workouts, he brings some accomplishments into the race, notably from his 2-year-old season when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He rolled to a four-length victory in that race last fall, finishing four lengths clear of Bravazo, a colt that would come within a half-length of catching Justify when second in the Preakness.

WEAKNESSES: Unlike Bravazo, who has improved since the Breeders’ Futurity last fall, Free Drop Billy seems to have regressed. He has gone winless in five starts since that race – finishing ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, second in the Holy Bull, third in both the Gotham and Blue Grass, and 16th most recently in the Kentucky Derby. Even if one forgives his failure in the Derby, coming over a sloppy track he may have disliked, his form still pales in comparison to Justify and other leading Belmont contenders.

BETTING VALUE: Given his struggles over his past five starts, he seems likely to be dismissed in the Belmont. Odds at least 30-1 seem assured, and he could drift to 40-1 to higher. – Byron King

SIRE: Union Rags, by Dixie Union and from the family of longwinded Declaration of War, won the 2012 Belmont Stakes. His offspring have inherited his stamina. Free Drop Billy, already a Grade 1 winner around two turns, is from his second crop. His first crop included Kentucky Derby starter Patch, who went on to finish third in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.

DAM: Grade 3-placed stakes winner Trensa won at up to 1 1/16 miles on the turf. She is the dam of Hawkbill, winner of the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Dubai at 1 1/2 miles and the Group 1 CoralEclipse Stakes in England at 1 1/4 miles. Free Drop Billy’s second dam, Serape, was a Grade 1 winner, and this is the extended family of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner and champion Cozzene and Grade 1 winner Tiz Miz Sue.

OUTLOOK: Free Drop Billy has a distance-oriented closer’s pedigree. He is genuinely bred, on both sides, to handle 1 1/2 miles, but will need a closer’s pace and traffic luck. – Nicole Russo