ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, OFF LIMITS

FIRST RACE

LA MONEDA looked good last after getting a belated start to her career, posting two impressive wins over Belmont turf before finishing a good 2nd to the talented Tizzelle in her final start of the year; back to grass after staying in an off-the-turfer and showing speed in her first start back. WAR CANOE kept improving throughout 2017 before eventually working her way up to an allowance try at the end of the year, a race in which she was badly compromised by an Aqueduct inner turf course that was favoring speed; has picked up where she left off this year, clearing that 1x condition with a late run sprinting, and then finishing a very good 3rd in the Mt. Vernon. TABLE FOR SIX has trouble getting there first, but she tends to make a run every time and that was a tough spot for her off the layoff.

SECOND RACE

HIGH NORTH facing a couple of 3yos with upside in the Easy Goer but he has run some nice races in his own right and like him going this slightly shorter distance after contesting a solid pace from a wide position and tiring in the Peter Pan; good effort two back with some class relief, and he should be able to take up a tracking position from his outside draw in this spot. MASK made an impressive debut late last year despite failing to break sharply from the gate in that race, and he returned to bury a field on an easy pace when stretched out in stakes company for his next start; caught slop and raced wide in a Pat Day Mile that was more notable for its no-shows than it was for anything else. RUGBYMAN stepping up to face tougher competition after drilling maidens impressively in his second career start over a muddy track; this is tougher, but he’s very well-bred and could easily be this good.

THIRD RACE

ABEL TASMAN locked up 3yo filly honors while ripping off three straight Grade 1 wins last summer, including a pair in NY, but just for good measure she returned to California in November to finish an excellent 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff; returned from the layoff with a subpar effort at Churchill in a race where she looked a little fresh early and then just stopped finding after gaining contention in the stretch, but she’s better than that

and likely too good for this field, assuming she just needed one off the bench. UNCHAINED MELODY made a disappointing 2018 debut of her own when chasing without enough and tiring in the stretch of the Grade 2 Ruffian; isn’t as good as the top one, but she has speed in a race lacking much of same, and she did win big over this course and distance - also with an easy lead - in the Mother Goose.

BERNED stepping up to try tougher after easily disposing of listed rivals in the slop at Monmouth last time; finds the top fillies a bit too tough but she is a better one-turn horse and can make a run into this race at a price. PACIFIC WIND has made few mistakes on dirt since switching over and is 2-for-2 since joining the powerful Chad Brown operation; was more game than anything else to get by HIGHWAY STAR in the Ruffian last time.

FOURTH RACE

CALEDONIA ROAD has her hands full with the streaking MONOMOY GIRL in the Grade 1 Acorn, and simply isn’t going to get it done if she doesn’t move forward in her second start of the year - though she was clearly using that race for conditioning last time. What she has going for her is some real talent to go along with a strong finishing kick, and a prep under her belt where she didn’t have to get down to serious business, while MONOMOY GIRL had to get all in to prevail in a hard-fought Kentucky Oaks; will give her the chance to step forward as the likely second choice. MONOMOY GIRL way the horse to beat looking for her third straight Grade 1, and this turnback may really work for her; has to dig down deep to prevail in the Oaks, but never really thought she was going to be better going longer. SPECTATOR earned a new top figure in her 3yo debut for her very sharp trainer, and she stretched out in the Santa Anita Oaks to finish a fine 2nd to the talented Midnight Bisou; should be forwardly-placed in this race. TALK VEUVE TO ME owns a pair of figures which suggest that she fits here but she remains a little hard to place with only a blowout over maidens and a soft-paced runner-up effort in the Eight Belles to judge her off.

FIFTH RACE

HOPPERTUNITY as classy as they come at seven with almost $4.5 million in the bank, and races like the Brooklyn seem to be more his speed these days, not that he ran terribly in the Alysheba last month; looked plenty good enough while easily taking care of business over this distance two back. WAR STORY prevailed in the Brooklyn last year in a race that seemed to come back to him a bit in the stretch, and he went on from there to hold his own vs. some of the top horses in training right up through the Breeders’ Cup; he’s the one to beat but didn’t love the Charles Town Classic as a race overall, and didn’t see his excuse there.

TAKE YOUR GUNS stepping up for this following easy allowance win where he had a fast pace to close into; heading the right way for a top trainer and he is a half to the underrated Last Gunfighter, who could go all day. HARD STUDY keeps improving for Pletcher and has no distance limitations; steps up again.

SIXTH RACE

HOLDING GOLD has struggled to get there first vs. this kind of competition but he always holds his own, and do think that he is far better off over this kind of distance than he is at five furlongs, which many of the better races in this division are contested over; career-best effort came in this race last year while edging out to the clear in the stretch as the winner stayed in and worked a run through the inside, and he ran well while in some traffic in the BC Turf Sprint. STORMY LIBERAL faded in this race last year, but only after breaking poorly and rushing up to duel a fast pace, which set the table for DISCO PARTNER’s world-record performance from the back; used a perfect trip to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last year, but that was over a distance short of his best and he prepped well in the paceless Daytona before running bang-up in Dubai last time. DISCO PARTNER may very well be the one to beat as he defends his title following a prep over soft turf at Keeneland, where he steadied on the turn before finishing evenly; prefers it firm and kicks hard every time. PURE SENSATION a contender at a fair price, and more dangerous if the pace doesn’t develop, which was the case when he won this race two years ago.

SEVENTH RACE

Could argue both sides of the for-against case for PROMISES FULFILLED but do think he is much better off over this kind of distance, and he really is dirtied up off back-to-back no chance trips in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies. Realize that his big win came with all the best of it on a controlled pace, but he did some good things in that race, was likely unlucky not to win the KJC at the end of last year, and was impressive winning each of his two starts sprinting; needs a trip but he’s likely to be a price. KANTHAKA makes plenty of sense as the ML favorite with his 3-for-3 record at the distance and his impressive win closing down a fast pace in the San Vicente showing; his figure declined last time, but that race was run at a moderate tempo, which he dealt with fine en route to a measured score. Interested to see what WORLD OF TROUBLE can do as he faces a likely fast pace on the turnback; has yet to face competition like this sprinting, but he has been very impressive going shorter.

EIGHTH RACE

OFF LIMITS could hardly have been more impressive than she was in winning five of six last year, culminating with her Grade 1 score in the Matriarch, where she received a beautiful trip and ride, but also really ran in the stretch; has so far come up short this year, but she appeared to be prepping while not going out for a run when she had the chance at Tampa, and she got into a tight spot in the stretch behind her impressive stablemate in that last one. It wasn’t surprising to see A RAVING BEAUTY finding a way to win a graded stakes in her first start for Chad Brown last month, what was surprising was the way she did it, as she showed surprising early speed to get forward in that race, before just powering right over that field in the stretch; goes shorter against a better field this time, but don’t be surprised in she’s up for it. PROCTOR’S LEDGE got good to win a pair of graded stakes at Saratoga last summer, and she’s come right back to form as a 4yo while taking a tough beat after a bit of an early move at Tampa, and then sitting a better trip and closing down ON LEAVE over this distance last time.

NINTH RACE

If you like AWESOME SLEW in this race you have to believe that the wet track did him in at Churchill last time, as he took dead aim on that field in the stretch, and even appeared to have a head in front late, before failing to seal the deal; giving him one more chance here as he has continued to run well in the top one-turn races in this division over the past year-plus, while often being compromised by trips and/or dynamics, but will not likely be coming back for more if he can’t get it done this time. Understand what the plan was with BOLT D’ORO in the Derby, but going with Justify from the start of that race blew up on them and he was finished early on; like him cutting back to this shorter distance in Met Mile field that is not loaded with speed, and he doesn’t have that much improving to do to get himself into the mix. MIND YOUR BISCUITS has concentrated on shorter races for most of his career with good reason, as he is one of the best dirt sprinters in the world at this point, something he drove home with that impressive late-running win in Dubai last time; finished a very good 2nd in the Cigar Mile last November, though that race was run at a modest pace which left him with plenty to kick on with through the stretch. BEE JERSEY keeps improving for a top trainer and now gets the test in a major way in the Met Mile; appears to be at his best on the lead, and see no reason why he wouldn’t get it in this spot.

TENTH RACE

SADLER’S JOY may be a bit better going longer than the 10 furlongs of this race, but he has continued in good form since returning from the layoff, even while being pace-compromised in his last two races, both of which were dominated up close; pace is unlikely to be an issue for him in this race, and he is clearly most likely to take advantage with his strong closing kick. BEACH PATROL has done his share of settling but there is no character flaw with this horse, who battles hard every time while keeping topclass company; can come forward with his 5yo debut out of the way, and he is a handful here if returning to his 2017 form. SPRING QUALITY a lightly-raced 6yo who has only recently been moved over to the surface he is bred for, and he has made the transition with success; good effort off the layoff while carrying the ground and just missing to the undefeated ROBERT BRUCE, who was given a perfect trip toward the inside. ROBERT BRUCE can apparently do anything after winning races from six-to-12 furlongs without a loss, and he classed up very well to win the Fort Marcy in his stateside debut; was more of a closer in his native Chile, so the expected pace of this race shouldn’t bother him.

ELEVENTH RACE

JUSTIFY takes on his toughest test yet having to go all the way around the big track as he tries for the Triple Crown, and he is clearly going to have to run better here than he did in the Preakness in order to complete the sweep. Thought his Preakness was a bit underrated, as he dueled down his main rival in that spot, and was always holding on to the finish vs. the leftovers, and, of course, his Derby pointed him out as the best of these; clearly handes a wet track, but his two best races to date have come in his only two starts over fast dirt, which he has yet to catch on the Triple Crown trail. HOFBURG seems the most likely upsetter, as he has the talent to go along with the upside, and he ran a very good race in Kentucky through a troubled trip; liked the way he was racing on late in that race once finally coming clear, though he did have the right kind of setup. VINO ROSSO went evenly with a wide trip in the Derby and was never a factor, but he can make some noise if getting back to an effort like his Wood Memorial, where he closed strongly into a fast pace; Pletcher has had an amazing run of success in this race in recent years. BLENDED CITIZEN should see out the distance, but he needs to improve by quite a bit to win this, even upon his perfect-trip win in the Peter Pan.

TWELFTH RACE

Am not SNAP DECISION’s biggest fan, but he had enough of an excuse last time while trying to get a run through traffic after being dragged back off the pace for me to give him another chance here. Didn’t like that cut back in distance for MACAGONE last time, and he failed to fire after a good trip; like him much better over this trip, and he has the speed to take advantage of this inside draw. SLIM SHADEY has won each of his last two starts in NY impressively, including that last one where he flat overpowered the field with a strong finish; stretches out for this, but he’s gone long in the past with plenty of success.

THIRTEENTH RACE

PROVEN RESERVES had the benefit of debuting in a race where the odds-on favorite was a complete no-show, but that doesn’t take away from the race this horse showed up with en route to a 90 Beyer; lands in a tough 1x field, but he looks pretty good. JUST WHISTLE an improving 3yo steeping back out of graded stakes company; thought he got the wrong ride while contesting that pace in the Peter Pan. MYAKKA RIVER was stuck on a dead rail in his first route attempt last April, but he jumped up out of that race to earn a solid figure winning his next start; second off the layoff with forward to go.