ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

Belmont Stakes day, Santa Anita first post 12 noon, and the most probable winner on the card in the first race. KRISTI’S COPILOT found a mile and one-quarter too far last out in a tougher N1X/ optional $40k claiming race. He ran well, setting the pace to deep stretch before he faded. He shortens to a turf sprint, drops to Calbred N1X/optional $16k claiming and looks tough to beat with a pressing trip. CALVERT STREET was similarly compromised last out at a mile and one-eighth. He pressed fast fractions and faded. He returns to the downhill course on which he finished second two back and will be forwardly placed. Lightly raced LEROY finished a creditable second vs. similar state-bred turf sprinters last out in just the second start of his career; PREACHER ROE finished only a neck behind him.

SECOND RACE

BLAZE OF GLORY might be an underlay, but the MSW-to-MCL dropper also is the most likely winner. His figures are the top dirt figures in the field, he shortens from a route to seven furlongs, adds blinkers and is in light with a seven-pound apprentice. The one to beat, but possibly low odds. JOHNNY RAY ran a winning race last out when dropped to this maiden-20 level for the first time. He finished second, more than four lengths clear of third, and will give the top choice all he can handle. RAK CITY will roll late as he shows up at the bottom level for the first time. Turf-to-dirt maiden-claiming sprinters is a profitable category for trainer Phil D’Amato (8-for-26, flat-bet profit past five years). SATORI showed speed and tired in his debut. Improvement likely second time out, at a price.

THIRD RACE

The 2yo maiden colt SPARKY VILLE made the Daily Racing Form “horses-to-watch” list following his better-than-looked third-place debut. He lacked speed while not asked, angled out in the lane, finished big and galloped out super past the wire. With two easy works since, and a start under his belt, he should move up a ton. PARSIMONY was purchased for $400k at a 2yo sale, which is a big ticket for a colt by a $10k stallion. Sharp works for trainer Doug O’Neill, who already won five 2yo races this meet including four with firsttime starters. Expect this colt can run more than a little bit. HONCHO adds blinkers after splitting the field in his debut. It was a solid educational run. Like the top choice, HONCHO should improve. MAYAN WARRIOR, O’Neill-trained stablemate of the second choice, has worked fast for his debut.

FOURTH RACE

Two turns and turf are new for BOBBY AXELROD, but the speedy maiden does figure as the one to catch in this MSW grass mile. His runner-up debut in a dirt sprint was super, he was chewed up in a pace duel second out. The fractions will be easier in this turf route; his pedigree is fine for the footing and distance. He is quick enough to make the lead if he wants. Come and catch him. CAJUN TREASURE is experienced at turf routes; he ran well both starts in productive races. Fourth in his debut behind two next-start winners, he finished second his next start behind another next-out winner. He will not be a maiden for long. SOLTERO finished a neck behind ‘TREASURE while making his first start in more than two months. He can improve. Stakes-placed KAZAN returns in a maiden race as a first-time gelding; NOIVO finished an okay third in his U.S. debut and is another that can improve. Deep maiden race.

FIFTH RACE

SUMMER DOWN NOW stretches out and meets winners after a sharp maiden-50 win in which she finished like a filly that will appreciate two turns. Bred to run long (dam a sibling to G1 winner Dream of Summer), ‘DOWN NOW is eligible to this maiden-30 starter allowance because she ran for a $30k tag her first three starts. MONGOLIAN HUMOR also won a maiden-50 last out, on turf. She showed she can get two turns in her maiden win; she showed she can handle dirt in her maiden-30 runner-up debut. ‘HUMOR will roll late. Last-out maiden-30 winner BROOME is the only starter that has won a dirt route.

SIXTH RACE

The pick six starts here; it’s an 11-race card. FRIENDLY OUTTHEDOR and BIG SKY LOGAN are tough to separate in this maiden-40/50 turf route; the call is ‘OUTTHEDOR. His speed-figure array tops the field; this is the first time he has raced for a tag. BIG SKY LOGAN misfired last time on dirt, but runner-up finishes in two of four previous turf routes were solid. Trainer Vladimir Cerin and jockey Edwin Maldonado entered the week having won four straight together; 7 of their last 11. PAPA JOE broke slowly and merely ran around the track his first local start. He finished more than five lengths behind the top choice, but certainly can improve with a local start under his belt. Troubleprone HOOVER TOWER will put it all together one of these days. Price play?

SEVENTH RACE

Well-regarded maiden HE’S STYLISH makes his first start of the year with a series of solid works and high expectations. He finished a creditable second behind subsequent graded winner McKinzie in his debut last fall, then stumbled badly at the break next start, finished a distant third, and was sidelined. Based on sharp works, HE’S STYLISH should fire a top shot first start back. He might be a good one. First-time starter THERE AND BACK posted a series of bullet works for his debut, though the inside post presents a challenge. Firsttime starter GOREN, a $1.1 million 2yo, also has trained like a colt that could fire first out. BAHAMIAN ran super last summer in his most recent dirt sprint, runner-up to subsequent G1-placed Solomini. BAHAMIAN can be excused for two subsequent losses, because they were G1 races. A maiden race is supposed to be easier, right? But this maiden race came up tough.

EIGHTH RACE

FATALE BERE scored a flashy comeback victory two months ago in a G3, her first start of the season, and worked well since. A reliable filly with 4 wins from 7 starts, ‘BERE is proven at this mile and one-eighth distance and proven over a course that generally favors her closing style. If she gets covered up early, she can blast home late to win this G2 and earn a ticket to the G1 Belmont Oaks next month. PAVED is a better filly than she showed last time when she finished third as the favorite in the stakes race won by the top choice. PAVED was unable to find cover, got keen and pulled, and flattened out. She needs to settle. There is no doubt regarding her potential. She defeated males two back including Blended Citizen, a live longshot to hit the board behind Justify on Saturday in the Belmont Stakes. MS PEINTOUR looked good winning a N1X by open lengths in late April.

NINTH RACE

MCKALE, a lightly raced 3yo, should make the lead against this field of older N1X sprinters. If he gets comfortable, he can be long gone. If not, then SOLID WAGER could be along in time. A three-time stakes winner entered for the optional $40k claim tag at age 7, SOLID WAGER will roll late. KIDMON followed his highly rated maiden win with a solid runner-up finish in a N1X won by next-start N2X winner Stone Hands. MAKE IT A TRIPLE returns to his preferred surface, which is dirt. TALENT SCOUT won his only start last fall, defeating highly regarded next-out maiden winner Cool Bobby. This is the first start for ‘SCOUT since October.

TENTH RACE

A big field entered this low-level N2L claiming sprint, led by YELLOW BONNET. Unraced in nearly a year, this is her first start at the bottom level. If she fires her best shot first start back, which she is likely to do, she should be tough to beat. On the other hand, it might be tough to trust a lowlevel claiming mare that has not started in a year. ALL NET got fried chasing a fast pace in a claiming sprint won by Allie’s Love, a longshot contender Thursday in a Cal-bred allowance (race 1). ALL NET benefits by a possibly softer pace scenario in this spot. COW DOG is quick enough to make the lead; MYRCELLA will rally late.

ELEVENTH RACE

The vastly improved TULE FOG followed his daylight maiden victory with a big effort in a $100k stakes for Calbreds. He missed by less than a length after dueling for the lead all the way. This open N1X turf mile is probably an easier spot; TULE FOG gets the call to race gate to wire. Also- 285 West Huntington Drive Arcadia, CA 91066 (626) 574-7223 Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 feet. Turf course: About Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 15.43 % ■ Two-horse exotic wagering: 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6: 23.68% ■ Early pick 5: 14% ■ Late pick 5: 23.68% ■ Daily Double: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.

designates graduate of Keeneland Sale

eligible HOME RUN KITTEN would be breaking from a disadvantageous outside post, but the graded winner still has run at age 7. Notwithstanding a bad draw, he figures as a contender if his last-start main-track fiasco can be disregarded. OISEAU DE GUERRE has been favored seven straight, mostly sprints, finishing in the money five times. He missed by only a half-length last out in a turf sprint. CONQUEST TYPHOON might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He had a brutal trip last out, finishing third by less than a length in a similar N1X/optional claiming race that he probably would have won with a better trip. Claimed by Brian Koriner, jockey switch, contender with clear sailing.