ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, BENGALA

FIRST RACE

SAWYER’S HILL has finished last in both starts since claimed by David Jacobson, but both of those races have come in stakes company and he was forced to contest the pace with those better horses both times; should be more comfortable here with his speed, and he has won 6 of his 8 career turf starts in non-stakes races. GLORY TO KITTEN also dropping out of a pair of stakes races, and she had early trouble in that last one before racing on through the stretch; good effort off the claim for these connections when overcoming a slow pace. WEEKEND EXPRESS hasn’t won a race in nearly two years, but he is a better fit here, after racing wide vs. a rejuvenated Slim Shadey last time.

SECOND RACE

BRASS RING by a capable sire in Shackleford, and she is out of a dam whose seven prior foals have all won at least once (one stakes winner); trainer underrated with 2yo first-time starters from a small sample (past five years, 2yo firsttime starter; dirt sprint: 6 for 24, 25%, $5.57 ROI). SHE’S A BLACK BELT by a sire in Jimmy Creed who is off to a good start, and she is a half to two-time turf stakes winner Sully’s Dream; only other foal from this dam won his debut late last year with an 85 Beyer. SOUTH OF FRANCE debuted in short sprint for Pletcher at Gulfstream and chased all the way before settling for 3rd; experience counts.

THIRD RACE

BENGALA was fast-tracked into some major races after winning her career debut over this distance last year in Ireland; came wide from the back over yielding ground and finished gamely before settling for 2nd in her stateside debut behind Creative Thinking, who returned to win the Keertana Stakes with a 92 Beyer in her next start. DOUBLE CAST prepped in shorter route off the layoff and finished gamely to just miss 2nd while down on the rail for late; improves with added distance. SECEDE cut the pace in front of stablemate BENGALA in that Keeneland route last time, and she was game down to midstretch before letting it go; shorter distance of this race suite her better.

FOURTH RACE

GOLDTOWN switched back to turf at this level off the layoff and found trouble early, before going wide on the turn and racing on late without threat in a race that was dominated up front; one more chance. SPONTANEOUS flashed speed going longer in her turf debut last time and was no match for some better horses when it counted; class drop makes her early speed more dangerous. HIT A PROVISIONAL doesn’t have much turf of the dam-side of her pedigree, but she is by an underrated sire and debuts for a dangerous first-out trainer (Abreu 5 for his first 18 with first-time starters, $3.57 ROI).

FIFTH RACE

Don’t love the field LOCAL COUNSEL debuted in, but this one doesn’t appear to be much better and he was off slowly over that sloppy track before racing on evenly without threat; well-bred colt can improve with that race out of the way. ONE MORE TOM ships in to face NY-breds for the first time after making four starts in open company to begin his career; faced a very strong field two back at Keeneland, then caught a sloppy track in his next start. SURFACE STRIKE debuted going long on turf as a 2yo but has sprinted twice on dirt since starting back this year, and he chased the pace in a race that went to closers last time; bred to be better over this trip as a Smart Strike out of a dam who was at her best routing on dirt.