Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
With more foundation, Justify may build on Triple Crown figs
Justify’s Beyer Speed Figures from the Triple Crown were a 103 in the Kentucky Derby, a 97 in the Preakness, and a 101 in the Belmont Stakes. Before we get into historical comparisons, including the 2015 Triple Crown run by American Pharoah, let’s discuss how figures are made in general and how Justify’s figures were made specifically.
We at Beyer Central do not assign figures for horses. We assign figures for races, and then the horses in those races earn figures depending on where they finished. We look at each race on a card in relation to all the other races. And we look at each horse in a race in relation to the other horses in that race. In the end, it is a math issue based on final times. It has nothing to do with the names of the horses and everything to do with how fast those horses ran.
“We don’t just look at one horse and say, `Well, what was he supposed to have run?’ ” Andrew Beyer said. “The figure is supposed to fit for many of the horses in the race.”
In a perfect Beyer world, every final time on a race card makes sense, and each horse in those races lines up like we anticipated. It is not a perfect world.
The Derby was the trickiest of the three races because of the changing nature of the Churchill Downs surface during that day-long downpour. The Preakness was the easiest since the times fit perfectly with the other races on the card and the other horses in the race. The Belmont required a subtle but fairly obvious adjustment.
The Churchill surface clearly slowed down as the day went on. A perfect example is Crosswalk’s seven-furlong time of 1:22.65 in the first race, a firstlevel allowance for 3-year-olds, and the 1:22.73 put up by Limousine Liberal in the eighth race, a $500,000 stakes.
Justify came into the Derby with Beyers of 104, 101, and 107. He attended some of the fastest fractions in Derby history on a surface that was getting slower. That he did not come flying home was not a great shock. Since the 1 1/4 miles was a one-off distance on a day when the surface was changing, the Derby Beyer was mostly computed off Justify’s history and that of Good Magic and Audible.
Good Magic was clearly back to his best 2-year-old form, when he earned a 100 in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Audible had gotten a 99 when he won the Florida Derby. So, giving Justify a 103 and Good Magic and Audible each a 99 made perfect sense.
The rain finally stopped in Baltimore for the Preakness card, but the surface remained a sloppy mess. Its speed, however, was consistent. The variant was minus-13 in Beyer terms, about 1.5 seconds fast at 1 3/16 miles. Justify’s 97 fit with the day and with the horses behind him in the Preakness. In fact, both Bravazo and Tenfold improved their lifetime-best Beyers. Good Magic regressed slightly, but given the speed duel with Justify, that was to be expected.
Whenever you see horses bunched at the finish of a dirt race, it’s unlikely there will be a big Beyer.
“For a giant figure, there’s got to be a big gap somewhere,” Beyer said.
Given how hard Justify had to run in the Derby to get position and how far out onto the track he was pushed by Good Magic in the Preakness, I was not shocked by the close margin or the Beyer in the Preakness.
I thought there was a chance Justify was going to put up a big Beyer in the Belmont. In fact, I kind of expected it given that I was certain he was lone speed. (Note to Mike Repole: There was a fatal flaw with your strategy of wanting Noble Indy on the lead. Justify has much more early speed.)
The Belmont Park surface was extremely fast, a minus32, in fact, the exact same variant as Belmont Day in 2015. When Justify went the first six furlongs in 1:13.21, there was no chance of a really fast time. And it was not really necessary. The race was already over. None of those horses was going to catch Justify, who can go really fast or just fast enough. The horse never looks stressed and never gets passed, even after the wire.
We broke out the two 1 1/2-mile races from the rest of the card because the paces were so slow (it was 1:15.11 for six furlongs in the Brooklyn), so that gave the tough older horse Hoppertunity a 98 and Justify the 101. Hofburg and Vino Rosso, as expected, got higher figures than in the Derby. Tenfold and Bravazo regressed from the Preakness.
So, what about American Pharoah? The 2015 Triple Crown winner got a 105 in the Derby, a 102 in the Preakness (a best estimate on a surface that took on buckets of water just before the race and had nothing to do with the rest of the card), and a 105 in the Belmont.
The best comparison is probably the Belmont because they got identical trips on a surface that was the same speed. After running slower early fractions, American Pharoah came home faster (24.32 seconds for the final quarter) and widened his margin. Justify came home in a very respectable 25.28 and maintained his margin.
So, which Triple Crown was better? The Beyers give a slight edge to American Pharoah in all three races, but he arrived on the scene with an edge, a threerace 2-year-old campaign that included a pair of 101 Beyers, and his Derby and Preakness trips were easier than Justify’s.
The other question is why Triple Crown Beyers are so much lower than they used to be.
Silver Charm went 115, 118, and 109 during his near-miss 1997 Triple Crown run. Real Quiet went 107, 111, 110 the next year. Charismatic’s Beyers were 108, 108, and 107 in 1999.
Point Given went 111 and 114 in the 2001 Preakness and Belmont. War Emblem got a
114 in the 2002 Derby and a 109 in the Preakness. Funny Cide went 109 and 114 in his 2003 Derby and Preakness wins. The next year, Smarty Jones went 107 and 118 in the first two legs. Afleet Alex got a 112 in the 2005 Preakness and a 106 in the Belmont.
Barbaro got a 111 in the 2006 Derby and Bernardini a 113 in the Preakness. Street Sense got a 110 in the 2007 Derby and a 111 in the Preakness when just beaten by Curlin. Big Brown topped out with a 109 in the 2008 Derby before regressing to a 100 in the Preakness.
In the last decade, the Beyers for the Triple Crown races have slipped generally. This year was no different. Why?
Beyer’s theory is that horses come into the series now with so few races and so little foundation that it is almost impossible for them to run big Beyers in May and June. The Belmont specifically is an anachronism. Horses are neither bred nor trained for the distance.
“Nobody really even cares about winning at a mile and half on the dirt unless it’s the third leg of the Triple Crown,” Beyer said.
It is also true that top horses are never asked to run three races in five weeks anymore except during the Triple Crown. It is also a fact, as Beyer points out, that 3-year-olds, including those who participated in the Triple Crown, can and do run big Beyers later in the year.
Bayern and California Chrome each got a 113 Beyer in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic. American Pharoah got a 120 in the 2015 BC Classic. Arrogate got a 122 in the 2016 Travers and a 120 in the BC Classic.
So, given the changing nature of the sport, it is very difficult to make historical comparisons. Whenever someone tries to compare Secretariat’s 2:24 in the Belmont to anything, I wave him off. That was simply another, unrecognizable realm.
Beyer was underwhelmed by this Triple Crown. I did not share his lack of enthusiasm.
His point about why these horses are not running that fast may very well be true. My point would be that in the context of the modern game with its lower Triple Crown numbers, Justify, with just 111 days between his first start and his Belmont win, did what only American Pharoah was able to do in the last 40 years and what only Seattle Slew had accomplished overall – winning the Tripe Crown while unbeaten.
The hope was that Justify’s 107 in the Santa Anita Derby was the start of a series of giant numbers. The unforgiving nature of the Triple Crown, however, likely prevented that now. But it won’t prevent it forever.
Now, with proper rest and a chance for Bob Baffert to point for specific races instead of being rushed into races, I expect Justify to start putting up some big numbers. Beyer agrees.
“In the fall, we’ll see the big figures,” Beyer said.
Greatness can be measured by what we see and by the numbers. American Pharoah was visually great all the way through his Triple Crown but did not become “numbers great” until that 120. Justify has been visually great in every start. Later this year, the moment is going to arrive when Justify too will become numbers great.