Ax Man should put speed to good use in Matt Winn

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – On an evening when Triple Crown winner Justify will be paraded at Churchill Downs, bettors will be expecting another exhibition of sorts from his stablemate Ax Man, who will start as an odds-on favorite in the Grade 3, $100,000 Matt Winn on the Stephen Foster undercard.

One of the elite 3-year-olds in Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s stable, Ax Man appears to have six rivals at his mercy in terms of his ability and the projected race shape. A speedy winner of three of four starts, all by commanding margins, he has caught a field with limited pace.

If the May 19 Sir Barton from Pimlico is an indication, that could lead to a dominant performance under Mike Smith, Justify’s regular rider. In the Sir Barton, on the Preakness undercard, Ax Man shot out to the lead and splashed his way to a 6 3/4-length victory, earning a 99 Beyer Speed Figure, a number none of his rivals has come close to matching.

“He ran incredible in the Sir Barton,” said assistant trainer Jim Barnes, who oversees the Churchill string for Baffert. “It looks like he’s going to be a nice 3-year-old to have this summer.”

Even if a horse goes after him early, Ax Man figures to be in fine shape from his outside post. He demonstrated by winning an allowance at Santa Anita on April 8 that he can sit patiently in second and pounce, drawing away by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 101 Beyer.

A son of Misremembered

owned by Hal and Patti Earnhardt, he will be racing over the Churchill Downs strip for the first time, though he has breezed three times over the surface since the Sir Barton.

Among Ax Man’s challengers are three horses who raced on Kentucky Derby Day under wet conditions – Combatant, Funny Duck, and Tiz Mischief. Combatant ran 18th in the Derby itself, while Funny Duck won the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile, and Tiz Mischief finished 14th in the American Turf.

Funny Duck has an opportunity to prove his Pat Day Mile victory, which came at 39-1 odds, was not merely the result of catching a sloppy track. With dry weather forecast for Saturday, a fast surface is expected.

Combatant never was a threat in the Derby after breaking from the outside post in the field of 20, and appears capable of a more competitive performance with a return to the form he exhibited at Oaklawn over the winter and spring. There, he challenged in the track’s stakes series for 3-year-olds, running second in the Smarty Jones and Southwest, third in the Rebel, and fourth in the Arkansas Derby.

The Matt Winn, at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, is the first of five stakes Saturday night at Churchill and goes as the fifth race at 7:57 Eastern.