ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, OUR INDEPENDENCE

FIRST RACE

Turf was an odd choice off the claim for an in-form AREWEHAVINGFUNYET and she couldn’t make an impact in that race despite having a fast pace to close into; back to dirt over her preferred trip as she tries to get a third straight main track win for struggling barn. RITZY LASS cut a solid pace over a muddy track off the claim and couldn’t hold a surprising favorite at the end; they likely have her to catch once again. TIMELY TRADITION won her first two career starts on dirt, both sprinting over wet tracks, then went on to try some tougher spots while having trouble staying on the track; second off the layoff taking the drop.

SECOND RACE

CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD isn’t easy to trust as an in-and-out type, but his good race makes him tough in here and he is likely to be on the lead as he turns back out of fast-paced try here two weeks ago; can run his race over this distance. MANOFFIRE races infrequently these days but he has the right running style for this race and he has run well off the layoff each of the past two years. DR. SHANE just missed in his first start for this trainer off the layoff then paired his number when second-best in a race that was rained off to the main track in his next start; not sure this is his best distance, and he hasn’t won a race in nearly three years, but he fits well in this field.

THIRD RACE

REATA’S REWARD ran well enough for 2nd in her career debut for a tag, then went on to contest the pace in a pair of tougher spots for this trainer off the claim; drops back down looking like a short price. WILD WITH STYLE has been away for over a year since getting outrun by MSW dropper Easy Way Out last May; ran well a couple of times early on with some excuses and it’s not like there is much in this spot if she’s close to ready off the bench. A SONG FOR SUE drops in to face maiden claimers for the first time while turning back out of sloppy track mile that featured a solid pace last month; .

FOURTH RACE

DANCELAND was developing nicely as a 3yo and has a chance to turn out okay as an older horse, she just needs a trip with her off-the-pace running style, which is something she didn’t necessarily get off the layoff at Keeneland, though she wan’t sharp in that race either; can save ground from her inside post as she looks to continue making progress her patient trainer. TIZZELLE was impressive disposing of allowance rivals off the layoff, and she can have a pass for the Mt. Vernon last time as she steadied on the far-turn in a paceless race, before being eased off by Bravo when it was apparent that she wasn’t going to run. CHUBBY STAR ran some nice races in stakes company as a 3yo even while finding those horses just a bit too tough at the time; makes her second start back after getting wired in her return, and she has the kind of versatile running style that could lead to a good trip for her in this race.

FIFTH RACE

LETTERMAN making a belated debut in June of his 4yo year but he has a nice pedigree as a Hard Spun half to a pair of turf stakes winners, including the speedy Isabella Sings, and his trainer is underrated first-time out. Thought HONEY DONT ran well in his Saratoga debut last summer, and while he failed as the favorite in his final three starts of the year, none of those races were disasters; the yielding ground over a longer trip might have done him in last November at Churchill,though he had no excuse there after a good trip. END OF SPIRITS has improved without winning since switched to turf for his last two starts; likely faced a better field last time when keeping close to the pace and proving to be no match at the end. KING ORB has a nice pedigree for top connections and he can easily improve enough to win this, but he had no excuse at Gulfstream last time.

SIXTH RACE

HOLDING ACES has been holding good form since pulling of a surprisingly easy win with a new top figure at a big price first off the claim back in March, and he gets a pass for that last one over the kind of wet track he has never handled in the past; tough with something like that effort two back at this level when keeping the pace in range before taking over, and then holding the closer. BREEZE BURNER back to the right level after three straight poor efforts, all of them with legit excuses (in way too tough three back before trying turf, and he broke through the gate and ran off prior to that last one, then ran for about two furlongs before throwing it in); dangerous speed when he’s right. MISSLE BOMB is 4-for-4 sprinting for this trainer and earned a new top figure when clearing and then staying off the deeper inside paths in the slop last time; likely to face more speed in this spot, but he doesn’t need the lead to be effective.

SEVENTH RACE

OUR INDEPENDENCE has never been six furlongs on turf but he has been facing some strong competition and running well in Florida over a long series of races, and he has a versatile running style; broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga a few years back so you know he can run his race in NY, and his new trainer does good work off the claim. DANCETRACK the one to beat right back after easily taking care of a similar field over this course and distance on opening weekend of the meet; has turned back effectively in his last two starts. ANYTIME ANYPLACE dropping off the layoff but he is going to be tough here if ready to run close to his best race. FRANCIS FREUD didn’t make any kind of run off the layoff at Aqueduct, but he’s better than that and he fits this race well with his closing style and will be a price; closed into a fast pace before just getting outfinished late vs. better in his 2017 finale.

EIGHTH RACE

KULIN ROCK was flat in his return to NY at Aqueduct when last seen but that is really the first time he has failed to show up, and he appears to be one who may really benefit from the return to Belmont’s Widener turf considering his running style; needs a trip, but not ready to give up on him yet. THE J Y out of NY-bred conditions following that perfect trip win last month off the layoff; tough post on the outside this time, but he is tractable and has won three straight over this turf course. LUNAIRE a closer who requires a perfectly-timed ride with his short run; had no chance trying to close from last in sprint that was dominated up front last time, and he was a bit unlucky two back while getting bounced around in traffic in the stretch.

NINTH RACE

HOLIDAY DISGUISE was just up over that one-turn mile on Memorial Day, but that was another solid effort for filly who has come to hand quickly after missing time following three straight impressive wins as a 3yo; like her over these shorter distances, and there is pace in this race. COZZY SPRING won four straight sprints right on the front end last summer before proving to be no match for stakes horses in October; was a little rank off the layoff, and may have received something of an overconfident ride before coming up short at the end. STILL THERE lightly-raced with a nice running style and she earned a solid figure while making it two-for-two after perfect trip in the slop last time; steps up. BLUEGRASS FLAG has yet to come back to form as a 4yo but she was good last year and she owns dangerous speed turning back in this spot.

TENTH RACE

MOSES SUPPOSES took some money and had a bit of a trip sprinting on dirt first-time out; drops while moving to turf and he has enough pedigree to handle the switch as a half to three-time turf sprint winner My Bella Beauty. FERRAD’S PARTY earned a 77 Beyer when just missing to the filly Louisiana Lady last November vs. MSW company; tough with a race like that as he drops back down. PERFECTEXPECTATION making his 3yo debut off the layoff with a class drop and a turn back for an excellent trainer; starting back for the price not a great sign for horse who ran pretty well more than once last year, but he is still one of the horses to beat in this spot.