ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, KEYSON

FIRST RACE

SIR EDDIE, runner-up twice recently on the downhill course at this Cal-bred MSW level, is obvious. RULE NUMBER EIGHT, meanwhile, is a 14-start maiden. However, his runner-up finish last out under similar circumstances makes him a contender. He has enough speed to be on or near the lead in a race that could unfold at a tepid pace. THERMOPOLIS is probably prepping, first start since last August. But he ran well fresh on this course last March (debut runner-up), and he will be finishing. YOUNG HENDRICK, a debut colt by Square Eddie, might be better than his modest works suggest. Check the betting action on this one. If he gets bet, he is “live” for sure.

SECOND RACE

KEYSON is quicker than it appears. In both starts this spring at Turf Paradise, he showed more speed than it looks on paper. He drops out of a Futurity, runs for a $50k claim tag against Calbred maidens, and seems to have acclimated to Southern California. If he pops the gate, color him gone as best bet on the card. BEA’S BOY produced a steady rally inside to get up for second in a slow race; he galloped out with run past the wire. Good debut by a colt that will appreciate this slightly longer distance. SILENT ALARM is a first-time starter owned by his breeders. This stable can pop with 2yo firsters. IRISH WARRIOR lost his chance at the break first out; he was gelded afterward. LUCKY GENERAL is a Lucky Pulpit firsttimer starter produced by a veteran stakes winner (Gn. Group Meeting) who produced four multiple winners.

THIRD RACE

RIVER BOYNE is the class of this $100k stakes field, despite his recent misfire at Churchill Downs. Favored in a G2, he finished fifth over a course labelled “yielding.” Assuming he returns to the form of his $200k stakes win on this course March, look for ‘BOYNE to bounce back with a win. He must catch ikely pacesetter BLAME THE RIDER. The latter wired a $100k stakes last out, and is expected to try the same tactics in this nine-- furlong stakes race. He looks like the controlling speed. He might not stop. Only one of the first 16 turf races at this nine-furlong distance was won by the pacesetter, however. ARAWAK was 34-1 last out when he finished in front of the top choice at CD. Wonder if he moved up on “yielding.” MOVE OVER stretches back to two turns. His best U.S. races were sprints; he misfired both routes. Two of the rivals he beat last out (Calexman, Heart Full of Stars) were scheduled to start as contenders Friday in race 7.

FOURTH RACE

In a competitive N1X for filly-mare sprinters, rail-drawn CONQUEST FLATTERME gets the call. She returned from a short layoff last time and ran the race of her career. That was a runner-up finish at this condition. Back at the same level, she must overcome the rail draw. ANONYMITY will crush this field if she runs back to her debut smasher last summer, a 94 Beyer romp by open lengths. But she subsequently misfired and went to the sidelines. This is her first start since last fall, her workouts suggest she will fire first start back as the favorite. POWDER finished in the money twice early this year vs. similar. MIZ TIANJIN looks like she is in the race to help it fill, yet she won both recent starts. Look for her late.

FIFTH RACE

Last-out Calbred MSW winner HELEN’S TIGER gets the call in this starter allowance turf sprint

for non-winners of two races. Her maiden win was impressive, over this course. The pace of this race looks soft, but ‘TIGER might have just enough speed to stay in contention. OPERANDI is a threat to steal it. The likely pacesetter, in sharp form, she could be gone. WISHFUL pressed slow fractions last time and still backed up. She has squandered softer opportunities, and yet figures as a marginal contender. MISS UNUSUAL crushed maiden-20s six days ago. Turf should be okay, she will rally late.

SIXTH RACE

Although two turns is a reach for THIRTEEN SQUARED, she just might upset likely favorite CHOCOLATE MARTINI in this G2. No match for former division leader Midnight Bisou during winter, ‘SQUARED is facing an easier pace situation than recent starts. She placed in two previous graded routes, and can win this stakes if she can somehow avoid a duel with the 2-for-2 sprinter on the outside. G2-winning filly CHOCOLATE MARTINI ships from the Midwest after finishing a creditable fifth in the Kentucky Oaks. Her win two back in the Fair Grounds Oaks would be tough to beat. Good filly from a top stable shipping in with a big chance. OLLIE’S CANDY is the aforementioned stretch-out sprinter. She won her first two starts by more than 14 lengths combined. What about two turns? We’ll see. She’ll take them as far as she can. If ‘CANDY and the top choice hook up, then this race has ‘CHOCOLATE all over it.

SEVENTH RACE

In a difficult race, the inconsistent BARGAINING gets the call. He drops a notch after splitting the field in a slightly tougher claiming sprint, he often starts at generous odds, and often outruns his price. Live trainer-jockey combo. EIGHTY THREE goes first off the claim while adding blinkers. The drop off the claim makes sense in this case due to finishing a distant third last out. Blinkers on, outside post, well-spotted. PAPA PAPA PAPA flashed speed and faded in his comeback. He ran as if he needed a prep. This is his second start back, his grass form last summer would make him a serious candidate in this dirt race. GENTRIFIED will roll late.

EIGHTH RACE

RED LIVY is tough to trust on the front end after losing two straight as the heavy favorite. But she is still the one to beat. She does like the hill (3 wins), she has run well against stronger than this $20k claiming field. SALSITA is a stretch-running veteran with a big kick. She shortens to a turf sprint after a series of in-the-money finishes in turf routes. She will be the fastest finisher.

MADAME MOUSSE was once better than either of her last two starts. HOLY MOSEY finished second at 54-1 last out at a higher class level. Good effort by ‘MOSEY, who has a big look from off the pace.

NINTH RACE

OLD INDIAN TRICK drops from Cal-bred MSW to Cal-bred maiden-50, he has the best figures already, and gets in light with the seven-pound apprentice rider. Seems like a standout. GIT ON YOUR PULPIT might have been too close to the pace last time with blinkers on. They are back off for this; the runner-up finishes by ‘PULPIT in two previous starts fit here. PERFECT WAGER waved through traffic and finished an okay third last out. He learned a new style of running, after showing speed two previous starts.

TENTH RACE

This turf mile for N1X fillies and mares is a good spot to take a shot with nd a stretch-out miss going dirt to turf. LIBBY’S TAIL should be able to make the lead in ths murky-pace affair, and if she relaxes out front she can be long gone. She ran okay her only previous start on turf. Sprint to route, come and catch her. SPEAKERS is an in-and-out closer whose best races are good enough. She has a running style opposite the top choice and will roll late. LIGHTNING DOVE stretches out off two sprints including a win at this N1X/$40k claiming level two back.

ELEVENTH RACE

GUTSY EFFORT returns from a four-month layoff at the rock-bottom maiden-20 level, with speed to lead gate to wire. MASTERPIECE DAY drops from Calbred MSW, goes turf to dirt and adds bllinkers. Improved effort second time out? BLAME JOE is another long-layoff comebacker returning at rock bottom. He ran races prior to his layoff that are fast enough.