ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, WILD N READY

FIRST RACE

FLIPPED has settled for second-best in three of his five dirt starts, including both runs for this trainer since being claimed; had no real chance with that much-improved winner last time. THE I MAN improved from start to start and earned a figure for his final start as a 3yo that would make him very competitive in this race should he be able to repeat off the layoff. MERGER OF BANKS earned this field’s top figure when just failing to hold a stretch lead vs. MSW rivals two starts back, but he returned to one of his more typical efforts when dropped back down and proving to be no match for a troubled firster last time; has speed. RAGNAR LOTHBROK by a sire who is off to a slow start, but he is a half to a 10-time dirt sprint winner and his trainer excels with first-time starters (Gullo, past five years, first-time starter, dirt, sprint, maiden claiming: 9 for 31, 29%, $4.99 ROI).

SECOND RACE

BATTLE OF EVERMORE has won two of his three starts since dropped in class following that long layoff, and the lone loss came in a race where he moved wide in a race that featured a slow-todevelop pace; game effort to prevail at this level last time while defeating a rival who would fit well in this field. GOING STRONG has improved since stretched back out off the claim for this trainer and his figures for those two races suggest that he is tough here as he cuts in half, but he got there both times and failed to get by. CONQUEST BIGLUCK E had been holding good form before controlling a rated pace en route to 88 Beyer win two starts back, which makes the class drop for that last start all the more ominous, and he gave way there after contesting faster early fractions as a heavy favorite; tries to turn it back around off the claim.

THIRD RACE

WHITE FLAG three for three sprinting over Belmont turf, including Allied Forces win last year over a tailing-off Big Handsome; starts back with forward to go for a trainer who has been heating up lately. TOMBELAINE returned to a better distance last time and fell just short of a couple of talented rivals after engaging in a long duel; could turn out to be a nice claim for these connections, and this distance may suit him best of all. BIG ROCK third off the layoff after taking a step forward last time in a race that was wired over a shorter sprint distance; has been at his best in Saratoga over the past couple of seasons but he ran well in both sprints over this trip at Belmont last year.

FOURTH RACE

RUCKSACK turf to dirt after showing speed and giving way in his NY debut last month on grass; good effort dueling in the slop two back at Keeneland and he bumped into a better horse for the level prior to that at Gulfstream. GRAVITATING has the figures but he tends to run the same race whether on turf or dirt, and it usually leaves him short at the end without excuse; drops again. GO LASSIE GO was off slowly and working hard right from the start of his debut while outrun, before racing on through the stretch to get 2nd behind the only other first-time starter in that field; stretches out. GALATIANS has yet to do much running in his first three starts, including that last one which was opened up a bit when his odds-on stablemate failed to show up and finished last; gets needed class drop for this.

FIFTH RACE

GINS AND TINS dueled the pace before weakening late in his career debut, for which he was reported by NYRA paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale to be not quite fit in the paddock; figures tough here if tightened up with that one behind him, unless one of the firsters can run. JOYFUL HEART debuting

for a good trainer and Kitten’s Joy colt has some pedigree underneath being from a dam who was a three-time stakes winner sprinting on synthetic and was stakes-placed sprinting on turf. BLUESKY

KITTEN debuted for Ward at Indiana and chased a pace duel before taking over in the stretch and getting nailed by a closer on the wire; has apparently been gelded since that debut.

SIXTH RACE

SCARF IT DOWN held good form upon arrival in NY last summer and his three short-priced losses late last year aren’t as disappointing as they seem as he doesn’t want a mile; had no chance when cut back to sprint against Forge riding a gold rail two back, and think the little break following that last one may have done this horse some good. HAVE ANOTHER has come back running off the layoff to post a couple of impressive off-the-pace wins, including that last one with a new top figure; had no chance at this level two back in a race that did not develop in front of him. THE CARETAKER has settled for either 2nd or 3rd in all five starts this year while failing to get lucky a couple of times; good fit here but running out of chances.

SEVENTH RACE

COLONEL TOM managed just one late-season start as a 2yo but he could hardly have been more impressive than he was there while showing good early speed and then dominating that field with a good finish in fast time; 3yo debut comes off a layoff in a spot where a repeat of his debut makes him hard to beat. STOLEN PISTOL didn’t defeat a strong field of maidens when switched to turf at Saratoga last summer but he ran well there and went on to hold his own in some tougher races thereafter; starts back sprinting for trainer who excels off of layoffs like this, especially with turf sprinters (past five years: 5 for 9, 56%, $7.75 ROI). SPARKY improved with the switch to turf two starts back despite being disqualified from 4th, and he came home with a good finish to close down a 100:1 shot on the lead over this course and distance last time; takes next logical step.

EIGHTH RACE

ALWAYS A SUSPECT isn’t quite a stakes horse but he kept improving last year after winning the first two dirt starts of his career at 2, before finally tailing off in some very tough allowance races; drops off the trainer change after failing to show up with his best in Florida early in the year, but he can contend here with his good race, and there is pace for him to run at in this spot. VERY VERY STELLA was surprisingly flat in the Kelly Kip at the end of March after getting himself into form, and he didn’t exactly turn it around in his next two starts, though that was a tough spot three back; may not mean much that he got back on the beam at Penn National last time, but he looked good winning that race and it wasn’t a terrible field. GREAT STUFF seems to finally have tailed off after putting together a long run of strong races for Jacobson over the past couple of years, and is likely to be finding a new home as he is offered up for $50k; easy enough to give him excuses for the Grade 3 around two-turns last time and the turf try three back, but this drop seems significant.

NINTH RACE

BALLAGH ROCKS trying to defend his Poker title in a very competitive renewal after prepping with a game runnerup effort in the Grade 1 Makers 46 off the layoff; has held his own in top company since winning this race last year, and he ran deceptively well in the Breeders’ Cup Mile while never really coming clear to get any momentum up from last. FIRE AWAY has improved since cut back to shorter distances, winning a pair of stakes over a mile and even handling a sloppy main track last time; caught a good pace when closing down the Dangers Hour two back, but this race also projects to set up pretty well for him. OSCAR PERFORMANCE concentrated on longer races as a 3yo with plenty of success and he may just be using this as a jumping off point off the layoff, but think he may be better off going shorter and he has real talent; having to deal with a fast pace right off the bench may not be ideal.

TENTH RACE

WILD N READY’s lone sprint effort came in her career debut where she appeared to race greenly before putting in a game late run into 3rd; has run well enough going longer since, but like her turning back for her third start of the year. KEOTA and QUAFF had to settle for 2nd and 3rd in a race that was wired by a surprisingly-favored Wesley Ward filly on an uncompetitive pace last month at this level, but they both ran well in that spot while trying to close late ground. KEOTA was making her career debut there and had to come wide from last before being denied 2nd, while QUAFF appeared to take a nice step forward from her green debut run. MY BRONX TAIL earned an 80 Beyer off the layoff when wide and unable to catch 50:1 firster Broadway Run, who backed that race up well in her next start, on the lead, but that’s twice now that she has come up short without real excuse on turf; tries again.