ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SOUTHAMPTON WAY

FIRST RACE

Surprisingly few established turf horses in a turf race that’s unlikely to be rained onto dirt. PRIME TIME MAN is bi-surface and won well going 9f at this level two starts back. Entrenched starter horse has outside draw but there appears to be enough pace to spread the field and give him room to operate. BRICKYARD KITTEN followed home the top pick in a common recent start. Drawn better than PTM but he’s an 8yo and it’s a what you see is what you get sort of situation. The tough read is HE’S ONE WILD DUDE, who found himself the second half of last season and has effective turf-route speed but hasn’t raced since November. Lone published drill at 5f and he’s surely more ready than that light tab.

SECOND RACE

From a strictly “logical” perspective this bottomlevel one-turn mile should come down to NO SOUP FOR YOU and SPRINGTIME WIND - which is not to say the “logic” of the past performance will apply. Things are too shaky here to assume that. But between the two of them NO SOUP FOR YOU a slightly preferable option stretching out to a distance she ought to handle off decent closing performances in two sprint starts following claim and subsequent rest. Won over 1 1/16M at FE so figure she can sustain at the distance. SPRINGTIME WIND seems to have greater downside risk since she basically didn’t run two starts back and last out was dropped in for half the claim price paid by these connections (and shipped to Suffolk). LOVE IN EXCESS scratched out an N2L win last time and sure doesn’t look like the repeating type.

THIRD RACE

G’S WARRIOR took some debut action but was out of early after a slow start in slop. Encouraging progress to be beaten less than five lengths there, and filly with speed pedigree showing $1K purchase price holds firm for a $40K tag here. First-timer EMPIRE PANTHER started working for debut in Kentucky this past February, wound up at LRL, and worked twice for this. It’s an odd pattern for sure. But with all those breeze miles she should at least be fit for unveiling, and here we have another bargain auction buy racing for a high tag. Firster BELIAL purchased just a couple months ago for $25K at breeze-up sale, and given timing it appears trainer C Lynch was able to just go on with her from there, which is a positive sign.

FOURTH RACE

Not exactly a standout performance but there are signs REIN SUPREME found her best lick when tried for the first time in a turf sprint last out. Undone by falling too far behind from wide draw, and in the past has shown more positional pace, which would help here. THALIA’S SONG has plenty of speed plus a turf pedigree with but one grass try. Blinkers off, and if she’d made the front and relax, she might have something. EGBER clunked along for third in a similar spot last time. Probably not capable of much more, but then again this is a soft spot, even for the class level.

FIFTH RACE

MAX CROWN definitely not trending up in a longerterm sense, but that doesn’t mean in the very short term - this race - he can’t bounce back enough to contend. He’s drawn well for preferred trip while cutting back from a route. Possible he just doesn’t have more to give at this point, but his race three back would suffice, and the morning-line odds look like value. I CAME TO PARTY will be a shorter price than the top pick but there are similar concerns. Was second last out but more might’ve been expected as the claiming price was cut by $6,000. MYTHOS appears to be back at the right class level but is this the right trip? 5-0-0-2 at 7f.

SIXTH RACE

First-timer ANOTHER BROAD has plenty of encouraging work for debut. MD-focused pedigree and gets to waive $40K tag being MD-bred. Dam was a stakes winner and produced multiple-stakes winner Dynamic Strike. Don’t mind outside draw for firster. Schoenthal barn has hit with a couple firsters on the circuit this spring and GLORIA’S GAL appears to be another live one. LONELY DRIFTER’s turf debut was encouraging and the pedigree doesn’t say the switch to dirt won’t work.

SEVENTH RACE

VALUE ADDED, 1-23 career wins, and CLARAVOYANT, 1-19 career wins, are, sadly, the two most likely winners of this $16K N2L claimer. Value Added should get the run of the race, had sprint prep, has faced better throughout string of relative futility. Claravoyant on the other hand drew the fence and appears to have just enough speed to get into trouble from that draw. GFOUR destroyed a field of bottom-level maidens last out despite finding considerable trouble. Measure the ease of victory against the class rise here - could go either way, but 5/2 doesn’t seem very fair.

EIGHTH RACE

If you see a sudden breakthrough performance, like BAY BRIDGE had last out, and can find a specific reason for it, blinkers on in this case, it can pay to guess that the race is repeatable. Connections think so as they boost him from $7.5K claiming to allowance conditions after a freshening. Suspect TOUGHEST ‘OMBRE will go off well below his 3/1 morning-line odds, and maybe he’s just superior enough that he goes out and wins. But wins? Those have been rare - none since 2016, and there’s the wide draw as a further impediment. DANIEL LE DEUX hasn’t been out since October but shows works dating to mid-April and reached a level last season to get him into the top three or four here.

NINTH RACE

SOUTHAMPTON WAY was over the top by the time she concluded her 2017 campaign but at her best last year at 2 she was pretty good. Lost ground in the SAR stakes try and her dirt-sprint maiden win there points her out as a fair-priced contender here in comeback race, especially with that flashy work pattern showing. CAUGHT DREAM’N apparently to scratch from Alma North Stakes on Saturday in favor of this N1X. Her 2017 resume coupled with encouraging drills merit attention. DIAMOND RING gets a career-restart at age 5 following year-plus break and barn change. She beat good horses in her debut win and it’s hard to put a ceiling on her given the limited information.

TENTH RACE

Another $16K maiden-claiming turf sprint without a single horse you could say solidly fits for the price. ENCHANTED EVENING was stalking / closing (to the extent she was doing much of anything) in her two turf sprints last year, so it seems worth noting she dueled and faded two back turf-sprinting in 2018 debut. More relaxed trip now that she’s fully fit could suffice. D’WILDCAT SUNSHINE is a clear fit on dirt but no turf experience and will be a short price. JEAN GREY a pure pedigree play with a good turf pedigree and three one-turn-mile dirt starts.