ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, CATAPULT

FIRST RACE

With two sprints under her belt vs. open claiming foes, GIRL DOWNSTAIRS stretches to a mile and drops slightly in class. This race is restricted to non-winners of three lifetime, or non-winners since Aug. 31. ‘DOWNSTAIRS is a five-time winner whose last win was July 22. She fits the conditions perfectly, her figures are appropriate for the level, her most recent win was at this mile trip. WAR MOCCASIN often finishes in the money (10 times from 18 starts), but she rarely wins (2). Nonetheless, she ran well all four starts on this course early this year, and also drops from an unrestricted claiming race at Golden Gate into a restricted claiming race. GONE TO BALI is the one to catch. She pressed the pace and faded in her comeback last month in a sprint; now she goes long and will lead as far as she can. PROUD ‘N’ READY goes first start off the claim for a stable that is 6-for-11 f.o.c. this year (Golden Gate and Santa Anita combined).

SECOND RACE

MASTER RULER should be long gone as one of the likeliest winners on the card. He dueled on a blazing pace last time vs. $50k claiming 3yos, and tired the final eighth. Now he drops to $20k claiming 3yos, is the clear speed of the field, and should be gone on the drop. But can a bettor trust a dropper at low odds? NOVA dueled and faded last time vs. Cal-bred allowance foes; this low-level age-restricted claiming race is much easier. NOVA should get a good trip in the second flight, behind the speedy top choice. RHETTBUTLER figures off his maiden win two back; he was unplaced at 31-1 last out in his first against winners. That group was tougher than this. UNOBTAINABLE has speed, worked fast for his comeback, and is a first-time gelding.

THIRD RACE

The 10-start career maiden IMPRESSION lost five times as the favorite his last six starts, yet he once again figures as the one to beat in this maiden-50 turf sprint. In the money all three previous starts on the hill, he has enough speed to establish position from the inside post, and his top figures from early this year are fast enough. Looks like he should be favored again. CAPALL drops from MSW to maiden-40/50 and gets the meet’s leading rider. He ran okay both recent starts on this course, against better. Late threat on the drop. CAMPS BAY finished second in back-to-back starts on the hill vs. similar company. Also-eligible HARLISS has speed, and is a front-end threat if he draws in. First-time starter SEVENTYONE debuts with fast works. His trainer’s win percent with firsters on the hill is an average 13 percent (4-for-31) the past five years, but produced a flat-bet profit thanks to win payoffs of $15.40, $28.40, $106.40 and $10.40.

FOURTH RACE

The beaten favorite three in a row, 11-start maidenclaiming gelding VEGAS ITCH gets another shot with a new rider. ‘ITCH finished in the money all four starts at this maiden-20 level. Maybe today is his day. Maybe. TRAFFIC THIEF drops from grass races in which he earned respectable figures; he will give dirt a shot with a seven-pound apprentice rider aboard. CALL ENDED tries a similar surfaceswitch, class drop. SUPREME GIANT finsihed in front of the top choice last time, runner-up with a pressing trip. He is a 23-start maiden, but his most recent start gives him a look. This is not much of a field.

FIFTH RACE

Lightly raced LOOKIE LOO scored a game N1X win last out in his first try around two turns and the fourth start of his career. Freshened more than three months since, he appears to have trained well

and could get a cozy trip positioned second behind the speedster directly to his inside. CONQUEROR was racing above his eligibility conditions last out when third in a N3X. He drops back to N2X and stretches out. Although all three career wins were sprints, his maiden-40 dirt-route runner-up finish last fall was highly rated. In current sharp form, he might stay the mile and a sixteenth. LITTLE

SCOTTY is the aforementioned speed horse cutting back in distance after a pair of blowout route wins vs. softer. He will lead as far as he can.

SIXTH RACE

CATAPULT makes his California debut with solid works and conditions to order. This turf mile is restricted to non-winners of three, or non-winners since Nov. 1. CATAPULT, who went though his first three allowance conditions on the East Coast, has not won since August. Runner-up last fall in a G2, he is expected fire first start back for a top stable. SHARP SAMURAI was given an extended vacation after an outstanding 3yo campaign during which he won 6 of 9 including three graded stakes. ‘SAMURAI is using this to prep for the G2 Eddie Read on July 22 at Del Mar, but that does not mean he cannot win his prep. He has run well fresh. ISOTHERM continues to promise more than he delivers. Low odds his last four starts including three graded stakes, he finished in the money only once during that span. On figures, he figures. But he does not seem to have much interest in winning. ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR ran well in his comeback, rallying from far back to miss by only a half-length. One mile is too short for the millionaire Cal-bred, but he will be finishing. Next stop, $150k California Dreamin’ Stakes on July 28 at Del Mar?

SEVENTH RACE

Golden Gate-based PEAKED makes her So Cal debut at the bottom (open) claiming level, $6,250. She finished second last out in a restricted $12.5k claiming race, one length behind a winner who came back to win again. PEAKED looks best of a modest group. LOOKINFORADANGER goes route to sprint after showing speed and fading in a route. This is the first time in her career she has sprinted on dirt. VICTORY SEEKER returns from a layoff, at the bottom, with speed to be in the hunt. TUSCANY BEAUTY adds blinkers after finishing a close fourth last time vs. similar.

EIGHTH RACE

A sharp comeback allowance victory by BOMBARD, his first after being gelded, suggests he can win right back in this $80k turf sprint stakes. He pressed/chased fast fractions (pace rivals finished sixth and seventh), and inched clear by a length. Sharp win by a downhill specialist (two wins, two thirds on the hill). His forwardly placed running style should lead to a good trip just off the speed. ANATOLIAN HEAT won 2 of 3 on the hill this year including a half-length score last out in a N3X. He has progressed farther up the class ladder than the top choice and will rally late. B SQUARED has been running well most of the season in Cal-bred stakes. He also will fly late. GOLD RUSH DANCER, whose $516k bankroll tops the field, returns from a layoff and will pick them up late. Based on his fast workouts, he has improved since winter.

NINTH RACE

VARANASI was among the top 2yo prospects from this stable last summer, but she was injured and sidelined after finishing third in her debut at Del Mar. The well-bred filly has worked well for her comeback; she should fire her best shot first start back. She was sired by Jimmy Creed and produced by multiple G2 winner Yearly Report. That makes VARANASI a sibling to G1-G2 winner Condo Commado. BABY ICE set a blazing pace in her debut, and tired to fourth. She shortens from six furlongs to five and a half, and will lead as far as she can. SUSPICIOUS SPOUSE pressed and tired her only start last fall. Looks like she has worked well at San Luis Rey Downs for her comeback. SUMMER’S INDY will rally late.

TENTH RACE

A front-runner that faded late in both recent starts at two turns, KHALEESI shortens to a sprint and adds blinkers. If she and fellow front-runner RED SHELBY can stay out of each other’s way, they could make it a parade. RED SHELBY wired a maiden-50 on this course three back, then faded both tries facing winners. She drops again, and will be involved in the pace scenario. If the top pair hook up, the race could unfold in favor of comeback closer AWESOMETASTIC. Also-eligible LETHAL LEGACY also will rally late.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 15.43 % ■ Two-horse exotic wagering: 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6: 23.68% ■ Early pick 5: 14% ■ Late pick 5: 23.68% ■ Daily Double: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.