ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, SOUGHT MORE PEP

FIRST RACE

Mule race.

SECOND RACE

First-timer PAPAYA has worked steadily for her debut. She’s her stakes-placed dam’s first starter and is by a solid win-early sire. Barn has some success with runners making their debut for a tag. Gets the nod based on breeding as much as anything. PAPA JERRY’S GIRL is be the same sire as the top pick. Dam scored her lone victory as a 2 YO. Lone sibling is a winner but lost her lone start at age two. She’s another that has worked steadily, and barn does enjoy success with first-timers. HEART OF MINE draws the rail for her debut. Both siblings are winners, one being stakes-placed and one at age two, and she’s a full sister to both. Like the decent five-furlong work to wind up preparations for this.

THIRD RACE

GOLD FINGA is looking for her first win of the year. She’s run second in her past two starts at this level, both coming on the turf. She has speed and can use it to full advantage with her outside draw. Note that she has won on the dirt before. WINTER’S NEST is cutting her claiming price in half today. She has enjoyed decent success on dirt and ran third in her lone start here. She’s not the quickest of runners, but she may try to sit closer with her rail draw here. LIFE NO PAROLE is coming off a nine-week freshener. She’s stepping up here and has been somewhat competitive with the top two pick, but barn doesn’t do well statistically with runners coming off similar layoffs.

FOURTH RACE

MY CARMELA has been frustratingly consistent this year, running second in five of six main-track starts at this bargain-basement level. Running against better on the turf, she ran third. She’s a solid router whose speed will be her a major player from flag fall to finish. WISH YOU WERE MINE came north and dropped to the bottom level for the first time. She basically ran evenly but hung late. Getting that final drop today may make her more competitive for Hall of Fame barn. MARINA DEL MAR is on an uptick. She’s run third in her past two starts, chasing the top pick last time. Since moving into this barn, she’s only failed to pick up a check one time.

FIFTH RACE

Stalker SOUGHT MORE PEP has won five of six starts this year, including her past three, and has finished in the exacta all six times. She’s stepping up today, but she ran third here against better while setting the pace in a route last fall. She’s so sharp that the boost up the claiming ladder shouldn’t be a concern. BELLANZA will be setting the pace here with the top pick sitting outside her just off the pace. She’s making her first start in six weeks after setting the pace before losing a photo on the turf at this level. She has only three works since her last start, but one was a big five-furlong bullet. RED ROSE LADY has run third in both starts, one at this level and once chasing the top pick, since a three-plus-month layoff.She, too, is a stalker but was outfinished last time by the top pick.

SIXTH RACE

EAGLE SCREAMS runs for a hometown trainer who just re-claimed him at Santa Anita. He’s a past classer who has 13 career wins and could go over the half-million mark in earnings with a win here. He has the speed to get a decent trip and will save ground with his rail draw. He has two nice half-mile drills since his last start. LOVENSEEK is the one they’ll have to catch, and he’s perfectly drawn in the outside post in this small field. He, too, has excellent credentials coming into this. He wins frequently on turf and synthetics and did run second in his lone dirt start. TOUCHED BY AUTISM has been freshened for nine weeks since a brief visit to Santa Anita for his first two starts of the year. Doesn’t have quite the credentials as the top pair, but he has a six-figure bankroll and has run consistently.

SEVENTH RACE

BELLIGERENT didn’t debut until this year. She’s shown improvement in each start. She has decent stalking speed and did get the lead in the lane last time. Seems capable of grabbing the lead as she drops to the bottom level for the first time. MISSALMA is a 3 YO meeting older and putting on blinkers for the first time. Has never shown keep speed which could explain the blinkers, although the equipment change hasn’t been a big winner for the barn in the past. One thing’s for sure: she’ll offer some value despite the drop. BLAZIN ON BY. like the top pair is dropping to the bottom level for the first time. She’s coming off her best try yet when she moved up to third thanks to a DQ. She has a bullet work since then.