ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, LEMON BLITZ

FIRST RACE

RAGTIME SUZY switches over to dirt for the first time in her career but does so from a good post following a strong effort closing ground from last after losing position when dropped to this level on turf most recently; dam was much more of a turf horse, but Union Rags is a stronger dirt influence. AUTOBAHN EXPRESS kept up on the pace along with the eventual winner (who was 8:1) in her most recent start, but proved to be no match for that horse in the stretch while finishing clear in 2nd; drops looking to catch fast dirt for the first time. SATURDAYS VAPOR was entered MTO but didn’t run her race over that sloppy track last time; drops back down with the kind of speed that could lead to a good trip in this spot.

SECOND RACE

POCKET PLAYER returns to NY from Fair Grounds, where he was last seen finishing gamely to just miss for a $30k tag after a good trip; lightly-raced 4yo has improved right along and appears to be a nice fit in this spot. DYNAMAX PRIME didn’t come close in his only two turf starts to date, but those races came in the first two starts on his career and he has improved considerably since; surface switch and class drop come on the heels of a pair of disappointing efforts, but he is bred to handle grass and this may be just what he needs to pick his head up. DARK ENERGY the kind of new face that could be interesting in a race like this one and appreciate that he has some speed to bring to this spot. Suppose FINANCIAL SYSTEM could improve enough to factor here after closing down a weak field of maiden claimers in his debut, but he may not offer enough value for top connections.

THIRD RACE

REGALIAN ran well two back when closing for 2nd behind a front-running winner who was pairing up 80 Beyers for a hot trainer, and he came with another good finish to close down a field when dropped to this level himself last time; enters right back for the $40k off the claim for an underrated trainer (Handal 20% with a $3.03 ROI off the claim over the past three years). FELIX IN FABULA tried tougher around two-turns in the slop to no avail last time; drops in class with a turn back after running well in both Aqueduct starts in the spring, and this looks like the right distance for him. MAKE THE RULES stepping up after posting debut win that is better than it may appear, as he had to steady back to last at the start before moving up to track the leaders and then take over with a strong move up the inside; must break this time.

FOURTH RACE

Like the race FERDINANDA and PUNKED are exiting and will stick with them as they try the Wild Applause over a flat mile while facing a couple of class droppers, including horse to beat GOT STORMY. FERDINANDA improved to win her first two starts for this trainer early in the year, and she then ran well to just miss in her last two starts, including that last one when waiting for room and then finishing gamely up the inside while just getting dueled-down by an upwardly-mobile PUNKED. PUNKED had a trip in her stateside debut at Keeneland where she faced a strong field for the level, and she backed that race up well with a wide move and a game finish to deny FERDINANDA in another solid allowance field last time; appears to have plenty of upside for top connections. GOT STORMY has improved from start to start and she ran a very good race for 4th in a strong edition of the Edgewood two back, before sitting a perfect trip and prevailing in the Penn Oaks last time; tactical abilities give her new rider plenty of options.