ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MAMA MARY

FIRST RACE

A tricky straight maiden contest for New Yorkbred 2-year-olds at six furlongs kicks off the Friday card. The nod goes to first timer POSITIVELY JEAN, who is by Midshipman, whose firstout juveniles have connected at an above-average 15 percent clip; also sold decently to fetch $47,000 at auction last year despite no black type for the dam or her progeny. ALL RIGHT WITH ME flashed speed before fading to be fifth of six when debuting earlier this month; adds Lasix for Asmussen, whose youngsters are well prepped and regularly gate schooled. Her dam’s foals have taken to the turf, although her chief earner, Twisted Tom (680K), who done his most rewarding work on the main track, winning the 2017 Empire Classic, among other races. Another first timer, CARALICIOUS, picked up the pace in her most-recent workout, going a half-mile from the gate on the training track in 48 4/5 seconds. She is the first foal to debut from a stakes-placed dam that won on grass.

SECOND RACE

Excuse the dirt losses from SOURCE CONTROL and she takes on appeal in this turf dash. She is a respectable 7-1-3-1 on the grass, and comes off two consecutive on-the-board finishes against similar; reunited with Irad, who was up for her only victory. The speedy NO REGRETS finished in front of SOURCE CONTROL in a losing effort May 3, which had followed a race in which she was a little bit behind her. There does not appear to be much separating them. She rates behind ‘CONTROL due to running sixth in a starter last out, a race in which ‘CONTROL didn’t compete; adds blinkers - for those that like that angle. MOHICAN has underachieved in two starts since being claimed in the spring, though at least her last race seems at least partially forgiven. She dueled with hot splits in a change of style. She is an unknown going this six-furlong trip, having raced mostly at a mile or longer.

THIRD RACE

UNCLE SIGH has been an honest performer in the New York-bred ranks this year, recording two wins, a second, a third, and a fourth in five starts. He now moves into an open second-level allowance after running third in the Commentator Stakes for state-breds. He also looks tactical enough to sit close to what should be a modest pace. REALM is graded placed and comes off a close third in a deeper second-level allowance than this one, but is winless over his last 12 races, a stretch dating back to late 2016. He has been tried under a variety of conditions, with blinkers and without, and to no avail - at least in terms of securing a victory. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING reversed a series of disappointing efforts with a wire-to-wire score for $40,000 claiming - though he capitalized by catching an off-the-turf field. He looks like the controlling speed of this group.

FOURTH RACE

MAMA MARY was three quarters of a length behind LULU’S POM POM when they met in a June 8 race at Belmont, but ‘MARY likely has the greater upside of the two. This marks just her second career start, and she ought to benefit from the experience she picked up first out when third across the wire. LULU’S POM POM could move forward, too - though in her case it would be due to making her second start off the bench. She had been away since November when second June 8. CARRERA CAT, ninth on June 8, is likely better than she showed that day. She was much closer to the pace than she had been in her first two starts, perhaps the result of being fresh and adding blinkers; expecting her to revert to latecharging tactics here.