ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, HAVE ANOTHER FIRST RACE

An unappetizing opener from a betting perspective begins with a six-horse $14,000 N3L claiming field in which only three seem to have much of a realistic chance of victory. Those runners are PAULA’S PISTOL, DARIA’S ANGEL and SPECIAL RISK. Of those, PAULA’S PISTOL seems best, having been first or second in three straight starts and doing so with 70+ Beyers in her last two races; returning from a layoff but runs well fresh. DARIA’S ANGEL, as with the top choice, comes off a N2L victory though not with as fast a speed figure, posting a 67 Beyer last out; plenty of back class to this miss, who raced in allowances and one stakes race last year. SPECIAL RISK beat the top choice in a meeting back in December, though ‘PAULA seems to have improved since then. ‘RISK comes off a second at this level - an all-too-common finishing position for her, as noted by her 25-2-9-3 record.

SECOND RACE

Perhaps MY WON LOVE may slip thru the wagering cracks a bit in the second race. She is the 5-2 second choice on the morning line, and has the potential to drift up from that if the public concentrates on the speedy DARING PROSPECT as well as morning-line choice PICTURE DAY. ‘LOVE beat PICTURE DAY when they met in late March, and although subsequently outrun when fourth, that came in an optional claimer, not a $25,000 contest like this one. DARING PROSPECT did well to hold second in a comparable $20,000 claimer June 10 when going a mile and seems well suited to a cutback to a sprint. PICTURE DAY has largely been in good form for trainer Linda Rice in 2017-2108, but looks the part of an underlay as the favorite in light of a 5-0-1-1 Belmont record and showing a gap in her published workouts from May 24 to June 25.

THIRD RACE

PAT ON THE BACK is sharp right now, entering this race off a couple of clear-cut second-place finishes in New York-bred stakes. He gave the classy Diversify all he wanted in the Commen- tator last month over this strip, and may break through with the victory if he can run as quickly on Sunday. Five-time stakes winner TWISTED TOM, the even-money favorite on the line, is the most accomplished horse and proven fresh following short layoffs, but backing him at a short price to win following a hiatus going back to Oct. 21 is unappealing. CAN YOU DIGGIT seems a cut below the top two but is in decent form this year; a wide fourth in the Commentator, he needs to make up ground on PAT ON THE BACK - who was 5 3/4 lengths in front of him that afternoon.

FOURTH RACE

SOCIAL PARANOIA ran promisingly in his debut at Gulfstream, posting a fine 72 Beyer with a close runner-up finish, and Pletcher must have liked his performance to bring him up to run with his first stringers in New York. First timer DILLON ROCKS fetched $140,000 at auction in April at OBS after working a quarter mile in 21 1/5 seconds. He has since breezed swiftly at Belmont, giving the impression of a colt with promise. MEADE sold even better when he made his appearance in the auction ring, bringing $250,000 as a yearling; plenty of foundation leading up to his unveiling, including a few works going five eighths on the Saratoga training track.

FIFTH RACE

HAVE ANOTHER is perfect in two starts this meet at Belmont, running quickly both times in blowout victories. Based on those times, he gives the indication he is ready to three-peat as he continues to face better company. 12-1 shot POP THE HOOD was somewhat disappointing when fourth May

6 and seems capable of better. Most of his dirt starts this year and last have been solid and he seems to like time between starts; chance to crash the gimmicks at a price. PROFESSOR SNAPE was surprisingly offered up for a $50,000 tag June 17 after competitive efforts in allowances earlier this spring. Now running first off the claim for David Jacobson, he goes over a Belmont strip where he has hit the board in all seven of his main-track starts.

SIXTH RACE

GOTHAM’S STORM was too keen early in a June 10 comeback, tugging at jockey Jose Ortiz as he tried to get him to relax, and considering what unfolded, this colt did well to run evenly and be a close fourth. He seems likely to benefit from that race, his first start of the year, and perhaps even more so, by the removal of blinkers; value play at his 8-1 morning line. MINSKY MOMENT and BLURRED LINE are the obvious ones in this firstlevel allowance for New York breds, but they are unlikely to offer much value, particularly MINSKY MOMENT. ‘MINSKY, favored at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go shorter, is unraced this year and is only one for seven over his career despite being the chalk in six of those starts. BLURRED LINE gets blinkers on after barely prevailing in a tight finish in a May 11 maiden race at Belmont; never worse than third in four starts, though obviously untested vs. winners.

SEVENTH RACE

THROW THE FADE has often been stuck in second placed over his six-career, settling for the runnerup spot four times, but might be able to finally score here. He benefits from catching an inexperienced field for a group of older maidens, and morning-line choice PAYNE has been out of action since November. The latter does return for trainer Chad Brown, who is skilled at bringing back comebackers, but as the expected favorite, he doesn’t figure to offer much mutual reward for the risk of backing an inactive runner; twice third in as many starts last year, including once behind Quip, winner of this year’s Tampa Bay Derby. ILLUDERE, one of five first timers in this lineup, has been working quickly, recording four bullets since the start of May and near-bullets on numerous other occasions.

EIGHTH RACE

COUNTY COURT was 3 1/4 lengths behind runnerup GAUGUIN when fifth in an allowance May 11, but seems capable of improving under Sunday’s conditions. He acts like a horse that likes running fresh, and still being lightly raced, may have room for development. GAUGUIN is the one to beat based on some close finishes and owning lofty Beyers, but he hasn’t been able to seal the deal and now gets blinkers added, which could be a move by the connections out of frustration from losing. HOLIDAY BONUS owns competitive figures and could move up in his second race of the year, though he also has a history of settling for minor awards.

NINTH RACE

FAST AS KITTEN sprang to life when dropped in class to face New York-bred claimers, finishing second of 12, beaten just a head; aggressively spotted right back for the same tag but by the Ramseys, whom tend to manage their runners that way. TIME EXPIRED was a non factor in his first three races on dirt before running third at 95-1 odds Apr. 29 when racing first time on turf, a surface on which many progeny of Freud seem to like; slow works since, though on dirt, which obviously isn’t his surface. THANK YOU SO MUCH doesn’t have any early speed, and while that is not as much of a disadvantage on turf as it is on dirt, it often forces the jockeys on these types to have to loop the field. Five lengths behind FAST AS KITTEN when fourth most recently, this one is in the third start of his current form cycle.