ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SILVER SHAKER

FIRST RACE

BINKSTER routed maidens the last time he faced claiming company and he then ran well in a couple of tougher spots in his next two starts with improved figures; forget about his last two where he had no chance, and he can bounce back with this class drop. SINGLE GEM faced tougher off the claim for a dangerous trainer and was no match after an outside trip; ships in on the drop. TALE OF MIST fastest on the way in, but he hasn’t won a race in nearly two years and has settled for 2nd or 3rd in eight straight dirt races, including four at this level; tries again off the claim.

SECOND RACE

BLISSFUL BREEZE doesn’t handle dirt, but she was good on synthetic as a 2yo and she went back to back when switched over to turf in the spring, including a game win while forced to keep closer to the pace two starts back; steps back after trying tougher last time and proving to be no match after an outside trip. TIZ PRICELESS also faced a much tougher bunch last time and was no match for a surprising front-running winner; liked her turf debut down at Gulfstream and this is the right class drop for her. VIP NATION pulled off a surprising upset first time on turf over a solid field, and she backed that race up well when dropped to this level last time, though she was given a good trip in that race.

THIRD RACE

IN DENILE didn’t show any speed in her debut and wasn’t put to an aggressive ride while picking up a piece in the stretch behind her winning entrymate sprinting; adds Lasix for her second start and she projects to appreciate the added distance of this race as a daughter of Indy Glory, who posted all five career wins over route distances, and was graded stakes-placed twice. Wasn’t really a surprise that STARLITE MISSION couldn’t back up solid turf debut from April 15th last time, but she has run some good races vs. solid competition on dirt and can rebound here with the surface switch. THE GREAT JOHANNA has settled for second-best in three straight, including last two when stretched out in distance; think she’s facing tougher in the form of the top two this time, though it’s not like they have nothing to prove here.

FOURTH RACE

JUST RIGHT a homebred colt out of a dam who posted both career wins on grass, but he is by a strong sire for a NY-bred, and he debuts for Pletcher, who is 5 for 7 with first-time starting 2yos sprinting on dirt at this meet ($4.02 ROI). STOP ME IF YOU CAN has the experience that can give him a big edge on this field in the form of sloppy track sprint early last month, where he got bet before tiring behind an impressive winner. AWESOME ADVERSARY has left from the gate in three of his last four works, but he has some pedigree as a half to both Carameaway, a stakeswinning earner of over $470k for this trainer a few years ago, as well as the talented My Cara Mia, who also happens to be Friedman’s lone debut winner over the past five years (though she won on turf and was best on that surface). LUTSKY has speed on both sides of his pedigree and debuts for the hottest trainer on the grounds, though it is worth pointing out here that Servis is 0 for his last 43 with first-time starters in NY.

FIFTH RACE

FAST GETAWAY disappointed after showing speed first time out on dirt, but he looked like a different horse when switched to turf for a trainer who excels with second-time starters; Rice keeps them going once she gets them figured out, winning at 24% from a large sample of last-out maiden winners over the past five years, with a $2.23 ROI. SPECTACULAR KID has been racing in careerbest form recently and he brought that improvement over to turf for his last two starts; picks up Velazquez after finishing a good 3rd behind Therapist in a Stallion Series race last time. LOOKING READY ran well in a pair of open company stakes

on turf as a 2yo, but he failed to show up with that kind of race off the layoff and gave way after showing some early speed; better than that, but needs to turn it around quickly.

SIXTH RACE

MOBRIDGE made a strong four-wide move around the turn before going on to post a clear-cut win over several of these rivals off the layoff, posting his third straight win, and fourth overall, at this level; figures tough right back. VINCENTO was down inside behind the leaders while MOBRIDGE was powering around horses to the lead in that last one, and he finished gamely for 2nd once out in the clear in the stretch; handles turf just fine despite entering with 0-5 record on this surface. SET ME UP back to turf off the claim for an underrated trainer after showing speed and giving way on dirt last time; ran some good races on turf as a 3yo and this is the right level for him.

SEVENTH RACE

SCARF IT DOWN may not be able to run anymore after dull performance behind several of these last time but he was returning from a layoff there, and his form prior to that is better than it looks; at the right distance if he can do better second time back. CLASS WON steps up first off the claim here for a trainer who has been strong with horses like this since arriving in NY last spring and he gets the go-to rider for this stable, while entrymate You’re Killin Me, who is also competitive here, gets Rosario. INFIELD IS IN one to use somewhere as he cuts back and switches from turf to dirt with the best closing kick in the field; posted lone win of his career the last time he sprinted back in January, and he has held his form since then.

EIGHTH RACE

SILVER SHAKER was off a couple of lengths slow from the gate and then made a wide move around the turn before eventually getting to the lead, only to be run over late by an impressive winner in her return from the layoff, which came over a distance short of her best; figures to appreciate this stretch out based on pair of solid races over this course and distance last year. EMMY PERFORMANCE appeared to need her career debut at Churchill, but she stepped it up last time when closing lastto-first to prevail over maidens at a mile; has to improve here on the stretch out, but is bred to do so as a half to turf millionaires Oscar Performance and Oscar Nominated. SMART TOGETHER also bred to be a runner as a daughter of Filly and Mare Turf winner Forever Together, and she improved from start to start in Europe while taking on added distance; has a long layoff to overcome.

NINTH RACE

FLYOFF has been away for over a year, which is something to be concerned about at a short price, but he is going to be very tough on this field if he can still run based on his turf efforts last year; starts back as a new gelding on the drop. TOM’S MUSIC has found some speed since starting back this year, which will benefit him down the line, especially if they keep him going sprint distances; still think the best race he has run was over the mile at Aqueduct last November, but getting to go the seven in this race should be no problem. HIGH RIDER ships in for a very good trainer after matching his career-best Beyer when switched to turf sprint at Monmouth last time, and he’ll face maiden claimers for the first time in this spot.