ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

SHANGHAI SCHWARTZ one of three MSW droppers for top connections in the opener but he is doing so in his 3yo debut off the layoff, while the other two do so after a recent run showing speed and stopping. SHANGHAI SCHWARTZ faced a good field first time out as a 2yo and he cuts back off the trainer change after trying a mile behind the talented Navistar at the end of last year. EL MAS PURO enters off the two best races of his career at Oaklawn, where runners from this barn do tend to find their form; has speed and earned the top figure in this field on a wet track most recently, should those conditions come into play. FOX RED had speed up the rail in his MSW debut and gave way readily when challenged; needs this drop, at least, based on that effort. MANTLE a $400k purchase dropping in for $40k right away for Pletcher after making the lead and coming up empty as the favorite at Gulfstream; Pletcher has a good record with horses like this (past five years, second career start, MSW to MCL drop, dirt sprint: 12 for 30, 40%, $2.13 ROI).

SECOND RACE

SHANGHAI DREAMS dropping and stretching out for her second career start after putting in a game late run into a race that was dominated up close in her sprint debut; Lasix on for ever-dangerous trainer. GABRIELLA was off to a poor start going longer last time and never factored; had a much better trip two back when just missing after rallying up the inside and she should appreciate this class drop. HIT A PROVISIONAL debuted at this level sprinting and closed ground late to just get outfinished by a horse who managed a run through the inside; tough post stretching out.

THIRD RACE

STORMY CHANGE has raced cheaply from the start but his two fast track dirt sprints are good, including dominant win at Monmouth last time with a big show of speed in new blinkers; entered in a logical spot off that win and should be going from the rail. OVERBOOK was never a factor over a muddy track first time out then went to Finger Lakes and controlled the pace from the outside en route to an easy win; back to NYRA at the right level. MAZMANIA has already had her chances but she is what she is and has found her best form lately; back to the right level after getting in way over her head last time.

FOURTH RACE

Thought THE POSTMASTER ran very well vs. open company as a first time starter while losing early position, and he just failed to hold on over a wellbacked firster after opening a clear stretch lead last time; one more chance. Expecting DUGOUT to have some speed as he debuts for 2yo ace Larry Rivelli (24 for 69 with 2yo firsters in sprints over the past five years, 35%, $1.90 ROI, and 1-2 on turf in that sample); he is a half to a two-time turf sprint winner, as well as to the good synthetic horse Unscathed. BOZZINI tried to show speed sprinting on dirt first time out but he didn’t have enough of it and was left to chase before finishing a distant 3rd behind the impressive La Fuerza; dam was a five-time winner on grass in her career.

FIFTH RACE

MORNING STRIDE failed to fire over off turf last time, but he finished gamely to prevail after an outside trip two starts back, and he bumped into three straight next-out winners prior to that; drops in class from a nice inside post. SOLUBLE isn’t exactly a winning type, and he is compromised more often than not by his late-running style, but he is getting significant class relief in this spot, which is his third off the layoff; needs some pace. WINGMAN facing tougher for the level but like him coming back to turf after trying to knock out his first allowance condition on dirt to no avail; had no chance in most recent turf start over an Aqueduct inner course that was favoring speed at the time.

SIXTH RACE

CALCULATED RISKER isn’t easy to trust based on

overall form, but he really stepped forward first off the claim for this trainer while giving game chase to an odds-on favorite through the stretch, and he can have a pass for that last one where he was down toward the deeper inside over a sloppy track; willing to give him the chance to back that April 20th race up as he breaks from a perfect inside post. DANEBURY can be inconsistent, but his best race is pretty good and he projects to be forward from the start in this spot; don’t love the race he is exiting overall, but he tired there after contesting the pace from the start. STRETCH’S STONE will have to get back to his best effort to win here, but his first two starts since returning from an extended layoff are somewhat encouraging; can go long when he’s right. EVALUATOR a 3yo facing some older hard-hitters following a pair of no-factor efforts in tough spots; has some talent but deep closer needs to catch all the breaks.

SEVENTH RACE

FIRE KEY put together a strong year sprinting on turf in 2017, hitting the exacta in 8 of her 9 starts, winning twice up here, and taking down a stakes race with a new top figure to close things out; lands in a tough spot here but she appeared to be prepping in her return from the layoff. TRIPLE CHELSEA enters in career-best form after winning four of her last five turf sprints, all of them stakes, including back-to-back victories while running down the machine-like Morticia most recently; big threat right back. LULL hasn’t had much luck sprinting so far, but she has run to the best races of her life recently over a flat mile, and her effort for 3rd over this trip at Keeneland last October wasn’t bad at all; had the natural speed to handle this turn back. MORTICIA is as consistent as they come and she rebounded nicely from those losses to TRIPLE CHELSEA to take down the Penn Ladies Dash as the favorite last month.

EIGHTH RACE

SANAVI defeated restricted claimers over this track and trip last summer for Pletcher, and he has improved from there to wind up competitive vs. some tougher claimers in California; exits easy win around two-turns when last seen, from which he was claimed and has since been turned over to Linda Rice. MAKE THE RULES didn’t take much money but he was impressive winning his debut after encountering trouble at the start, and he backed that race up well to fall just short last time; has to stretch out but is dangerous if he can handle it off the claim for a dangerous trainer. TIZ

NO BLUFF hasn’t run that well in his three starts since shipping in, but he has faced better and has caught two wet tracks recently; appears to be in a better spot here, but he is not easy to take at a short price at this point.

NINTH RACE

DREAMERS AND ME was a bit green first time out but she was running at the end of that race once coming clear to make some ground; threat to improve quickly with that one out of the way. MAMA MARY got bet nd first time out but couldn’t gain ground in a race that was dominated on the front end; drawn out wide but she projects to do better this time. QUIETLY QUICK’s two turf races came going longer and she was never a real factor in either of those after good trips; cuts back for the first time which may work for filly who is out of a her who dam posted all three career wins sprinting on grass.