ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, FOUR KNIGHTS

FIRST RACE

MUTASAAWY took to jumping right away when switched over last year and posted a pair of easy wins over this distance, including one up here, before struggling going longer in tougher races; had some trouble in his first two starts off the layoff but he closed in time to defeat a couple of these at Fair Hill with blinkers on two starts back. OFFICER SYDNEY defeated $20k claimers under steady urging two starts back then survived the pace to make the lead late before getting closed down by MUTASAAWY and No Wunder last time. LORD JUSTICE finished a couple of lengths behind MUTASAAWY in their prep for this over the flat at Suffolk; posted an easy win to break through over jumps prior to that to break through stateside after finishing 2nd in his three prior starts.

SECOND RACE

HEXAMETER has lost nine in a row since breaking his maiden in the slop last May but they were trying to make her a turf horse last summer, and she has run pretty well since returning this year while continually bumping into in-form rivals like Christmas Sky (won five of his six starts in NY before shipping out of town to try stakes company), Hay Field (a winner of four of his last five since claimed, including a top figure victory over open allowance rivals up here opening day), Blank Paige and Isotope; drops in to face twolife claimers for the first time and she can handle a wet track. RAGING TOWN earned career-best 74 Beyer in her career debut over two years ago as a 2yo, but she has raced sparingly since then, and she broke her maiden in hard-fought win first time back from a long layoff; drops for the first time with blinkers on after failing to stretch out vs. better horses. TERRALSOLE has yet to run fast enough to contend here but she has only made three starts and she managed to deal with a fast pace in her only dirt start vs. claiming company when breaking her maiden; has to improve off the bench.

THIRD RACE

CONSENSUS THINKING has taken money with making a real impact in pair of starts vs. MSW company on the main track; drops for the first time and looks to be in the right spot here if we are off the turf. SPORT was unlucky at times as a 3yo on turf, including a tough-trip chance in traffic up here over course and distance, but he had his chances to break through a couple of time as well, and couldn’t get it done; appears to have returned to his typical form following a long layoff and he is probably just at the right level now after putting in a game run for 2nd last time behind a winner who had the jump and was giving him no chance to catch. DING DONG DITCH dropping for the first time while getting a trainer change after failing to get involved at Churchill last time; was a big price when finishing 2nd prior to the layoff last summer but he ran well in that race, and he took a shot at favored Gosilently in his return before being turned away and was just short of 3rd at the wire in finishing 7th. HUSTLE N HEART has to improve in his second start while stretching out, but he is bred to handle the distance and he appeared to be a work in progress while racing in spots first time out.

FOURTH RACE

RECTIFY seems unlikely to get it done if running one of his recent figures as he steps up off the claim but one thing that was made clear in his easy win over weaker last time is that he needs the lead to be effective, and he was sent hard from the gate in that spot to secure the front; would worry about a wet track with him, but that is also the case with some of the others, and he has the back races to be competitive here if he can clear. SUMMER BOURBON and CANDID DESIRE (also off the claim for Cannizzo) exit a fast race where they both closed from the back into a perfect setup to run 1-2 with matching 97 Beyers. SUMMER BOURBON wound up making the last move there and was only second-best, but he doesn’t have to be that far away early. CANDID DESIRE was getting the class relief he needed in that spot and was actually quite a bit better than SUMMER BOURBON while making an earlier move, but he has shown consistently in the past that he does not perform to his best over a wet track. MR. BUFF has the speed

and the ability to be a big factor in this race, but have never thought him to be at his best as a sprinter, and his form has been tailing off lately after a good run over the winter.

FIFTH RACE

2yo short sprint for NY-bred fillies a bit of a guessing game with just one showing experience from ten entered. Couldn’t find much performance in the pedigree for EVAN’S NICE NOW without going back a couple of generations, but she is by a precocious sire and she debuts for a trainer who continues to impress with his work in preparing first time starters. TIME WARP by new sire Cairo Prince and brought $230k as a yearling last summer; first five foals from this dam are all winners and this filly appears to be training forwardly into her debut. EMPRESS SOPHIA was a $400k yearling purchase and she has the best pedigree in the field being the first foal out of the Grade 3 winner Bryan’s Jewel, but she is bred to be better going longer; Lukas just 3 for his last 142 with first time starters ($0.22 ROI). COLLEGEVILLE GIRL a little interesting shipping in from Parx to debut at Saratoga, as she has some pedigree underneath her; trainer hasn’t had much success on debut, but it’s a small sample.

SIXTH RACE

COME DANCING making first start since something clearly went amiss when eased off in the Interborough back in January forcing her to the sidelines; she made an impressive debut late in her 2yo year while moving forward throughout the running and then overpowering the leaders, and she backed that race up strongly when burying allowance rivals with a 96 Beyer in her next start; perfectly drawn outside, just has to be ready. PRAY FOR LESLIE two for two in Kentucky with both wins earning similar figures and she had shown easy speed in those races for a trainer who tends to pick his spots shipping to NY; enough other speed in this race to find out how good she is, as she may have to deal with a different kind of pressure in this spot. Last time was the time to have PURRFECT MISS as she was second off the bench at a price when getting right to the top and never looking back, but she showed ability as a 2yo and it would be no surprise to find her continuing to come forward now; clearly likes this track.

SEVENTH RACE

We’ll see how things play out with the weather but if we’re on the turf HOLLYWOOD CAT figures tough to go against entering a protected spot (she was entered in a tougher 1x field on opening day) off the claim for Jason Servis, who is 6 for his last 9 off the claim on turf at Saratoga ($5.01 ROI); she was always okay for her prior connections anyway, and she ran well in that stallion series race over this course and distance up here last summer. HOPE’S ROAR had little chance to catch front-running Transaction Tax after being rated back to last most recently but she put in a good run through the stretch to be clearly secondbest; doesn’t have to be that far away, and she has posted all three career wins in her last eight starts after struggling to break through. ENGLISH DANCER dropped in class and turned away HOLLYWOOD CAT in the stretch when they met on turf at Belmont back in May, then had her next start rained off and easily defeated only two others over a wet track that she appeared to have no trouble handling; barn off to a 1-13 start but they have been sending out some live horses at this meet so far.

EIGHTH RACE

MORRISON has really improved on turf as a 3yo and think he faced a pretty nice pair of developing turf horses going longer at Belmont last time in a race where he was forced to go a legitimate pace; steps in with older horses from a tough outside post but he has the speed to overcome it and he did break his maiden by open lengths over a sloppy track, should that come into play, FOX RULES also has speed, but from a better inside draw and he has the ability over turf to make things difficult for MORRISON early on; has raced infrequently on turf but has always been more than capable on this surface, which he has shown since switching back over this year. ROYAL BLESSING a 9yo who still hits hard as evidenced by solid effort trying to reach odds-on repeat winner Big Changes at Indiana last time with a 90 Beyer, though he did receive a very good ride in that race; can be the one to take advantage if the top two get involved early.

NINTH RACE

CHALON was only second-best to KIRBY’S PENNY over a “good” track in the Vagrancy back in May at Belmont, but she did make the first move in that race to go contest the pace and she bounced back with a sharp score over weaker at Monmouth last time; figures to be involved early once again in race where most of them want to be forward, but like the way she is headed since arriving in this barn and will give her the chance to turn the tables. KIRBY’S PENNY was a surprise winner of the Vagrancy but she didn’t appear to luck into that win in any way and she just keeps improving for Wesley Ward; can sit the same kind of stalking trip in this race, and she handles a wet track. VERTICAL OAK would be tough to take on this spot over fast dirt, but she is clearly at her best over a wet track so the forecast a couple of days out looks favorable to her; has speed on the rail when the conditions suit, and she likes this track. FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM couldn’t quite hold on in this race last summer but she may be the one to beat from a nice draw on the outside, and she is another who isn’t compromised by a wet track; was a little disappointing last time when proving to be no match in the Humana Distaff but she was a Grade 1 winner two back, albeit in a blanket finish.

TENTH RACE

FOUR KNIGHTS dropped in class two back on turf and ran a very good race while getting too far back to make a late impact; think he can be hard to beat on turf in this spot but his last start in the slop wasn’t a bad effort either, as he was always on a wide chase in that spot and only gave in at the very end. NOVUS got outrun and was never a factor in his turf debut last September then ran a similar race while showing more early speed when rained off the turf in his second start; returns from the layoff dropping in class with a trainer change. MONEIGH MOPROBLEMS would be one to avoid if this race comes off the grass, but his recent turf form has been solid while facing better horses and he will benefit from this class drop.