ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, ALWAYS BELIEVE FIRST RACE

Runner-up in an unrestricted $25k claiming sprint last out, ALWAYS BELIEVE drops slightly in class to restricted (non-winners of three) $20k claiming. Her latest effort makes her the one to beat in a sprint without much speed. Come and catch her. ROBIN’S LOVE wheels back six days after a dominating N2L victory opening week. The well-bred filly obviously loves this racetrack; she has an up-front style and is drawn outside the top choice. That translates to a potentially advantageous trip pressing the pace while racing in the clear. The past five years, trainer Peter Miller is 7-for-31 (22 percent) wheeling back seven days or less. Flat-bet loss. MIZ TIANJIN looms a contender off sharp wins in February and March. She was only prepping last month in a N1X; she is good enough for this class although the inside post poses a major hindrance based on the opening-week track profile. DURANGA is a late threat, up in class for her first in three months.

SECOND RACE

STREET TO INDY lost his chance at the break last out. He stumbled badly, was away last, yet rallied to finish second in a similar maiden-40 route. His two starts since moving to dirt are arguably the best races of his 15-start career. Tough to trust a maiden with that many starts, but with a clean break he is strictly the one to beat. TIDAL EFFECT returned to form last out in his first start off the claim when he finished second behind a more well-regarded (lower odds) stablemate. ‘EFFECT ran faster (84 Beyer) than the top choice in a similar maiden-claiming dirt route in March, albeit on a track labelled “good.” EARNEDNEVERGIVEN is gradually improving. He moves up from a runnerup finish in a maiden-30 that produced at least two next-start winners. BARTLETT HALL drops and gives dirt a try for the first time.

THIRD RACE

Steep dropper BARGAINING returns to a realistic level after being in too tough in back-to-back races vs. better. His win three back in a $12.5k claiming race would be good enough for this $8k claiming sprint. LOUDEN’S GRAY would be rock solid except for the disadvantageous rail. He won at this level two back and finished a better-than-looked third last out. It was “BTL” because he rallied from last in a race dominated by the two pacesetters. The rail draw is a problem, but LOUDEN’S GRAY definitely will finish. TOMASINO has been banging heads with N1X allowance company at Golden Gate. This is where he belongs. A winner on this racetrack two summers ago (when the surface was much faster), TOMASINO should fire his best race now that he is back at the bottom (unrestricted) claiming level. He has speed, as do several others.

FOURTH RACE

Plans call for two Breeders’ Cup winners from the Peter Miller stable to run here this week. BC Sprint winner Roy H is ticketed for the G1 Bing Crosby on Saturday; BC Turf Sprint winner STORMY LIBERAL shows up in this turf sprint allowance as the class of the field. He obviously likes this course (2017 BC at Del Mar); his form this year has been solid: beaten only two lengths last out in a G2 at Belmont, runner-up in a million-dollar race in Dubai, runner-up in a G3 at Santa Anita in February. The turf rails are scheduled to move to the outermost 30-foot setting to start the week, which could might be a challenge for the closer. But the class of the field nonetheless gets the call to mow them down in a race that should unfold at a strong pace. But it will not be easy, because TRIBALIST has never lost on this turf course. He is 3-for-3 in grass sprints here, has more tactical speed than the top choice and should get first run. This is his first start since January; he runs fresh. LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN is less accomplished than the top pair, but he his speed figures are decent, he has speed and an inside post. With the turf rails up, in theory, he has a tactical edge and could get a cozy trip positioned right behind front-runners TIZ A BILLY and ADENS DREAM.

FIFTH RACE

This $50k maiden-claiming sprint for Calbreds is a good spot to take a shot at a price. Second-time starter FRIENDLY STEVE might spring an upset after a troubled seventh-place debut against open

maiden-30s. He broke slowly from the rail, moved into contention into the turn, ran up on the heels of a rival on the turn, lost position, and faded. The effort was inconclusive, but he was getting bet (7-1) as if he had shown something in morning works. He moves from the rail to the outside post, moves to Calbred maiden-50 (parallel class move) and meets a field with many career maidens. Owned, bred and trained by Blake Heap, the gelding might outrun his odds. CAYATE returns to the maiden-claiming ranks after finding statebred MSWs too tough. This is the 13th start of his career. BLACK STORM, respectable third last out, will pick them up late. POISE TO STRIKE has speed and veteran connections that are easy to cheer for. Trainer Val Brinkerhoff and owner Bob Grayson won two races opening week including the Oceanside with Rest ra in edv eng en ce. Tough post for ‘STRIKE, who will be involved early.

SIXTH RACE

This starter allowance turf mile is tough. SOUTER gets the call after a better-than-looked fourth last out. He broke slowly from an outside post, was caught three- and four-wide every step of the way, yet still tried to finish and missed by only a length. He might have been best. Unlucky to draw another outside post, SOUTER switches to jockey Kent Desormeaux and will roll late. The turf course was kind to horses with tactical speed opening week, it will be interesting to see if the profile changes with the rails at 30 feet. Changes in the rail setting at Del Mar sometimes leads to course-profile changes. Stay tuned. JIMMY D ships from Arlington, where his last-start runner-up finish was flattered when the winner returned to win again. EXTREME HEAT, third last out, has a pressing style that should lead to a good trip forwardly placed. TASTE’S LEGEND has run races that put him in the hunt, while alsoeligible DR. TROUTMAN figures as a contender except for one thing. He is stuck on the far outside.

SEVENTH RACE

A mile and one-half on dirt is a welcome specialty for $4.6 million-earner HOPPERTUNITY. He won his last two starts at the distance (G2 at Belmont, G3 at Santa Anita) and enters as the class of this G3 marathon. His odds will be correspondingly low. Front-runner LITTLE SCOTTY will take them as far as he can. The gray followed back-to-back wire jobs vs. easier with a creditable runner-up finish last out. However, the horse he lost to (Two Thirty Five) returned to finish off the board Saturday in the G2 San Diego. UNAPOLOGETIC won back-toback distance turf races at Santa Anita. He will run all day, and figures in the hunt if he transfers his outstanding grass form to the main track. PRINCE OF ARABIA has run races that are good enough.

EIGHTH RACE

Also-eligible TAPALITA looks like the one to beat after a runner-up finish last out in which she finished more than seven lengths clear of third. If she does not draw in, then RED BOMBER inherits horse-to-beat status in this modest maiden20 sprint. She ran well last out in her first start in Southern California, missing by only a length. BELLE MONTE returns from an extended layoff while dropping from MSW for the second start of her career. VEILED HEAT is a 16-start maiden with seven in-the-money finishes. PRAY FOR CORDAY has speed, but inside posts were up against it in opening-week sprints.