ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME

FIRST RACE

IRANISTAN posted three straight convincing wins when moved over to the jumps earlier this year then carried that form back to the flat off of a short layoff in his prep for this three weeks ago; steps up. MODEM shipped in from Ireland and finished 2nd in four straight Grade 1s last year, including this race first time, then picked up where he left off to finish 2nd again off the bench; tries one more time. ALL THE WAY JOSE didn’t have an easy time of it in this race last year but he went forward from there and took down the Grade 1 Lonesome Glory at Belmont; 3rd off the layoff.

SECOND RACE

EL CUCUY came wide and rallied for 3rd behind a sharp winner in his career debut at Belmont; can improve with that race behind him as he goes off the claim for Michelle Nevin who is five for her last ten with maidens off the claim in dirt sprints ($2.47 ROI); blinkers on. GRAVITATING earned the best figure of his career on turf at Gulfstream but he really isn’t very proficient on that surface and he has run the fastest races of any of these on dirt; handles it wet, but he is entered for half the price he was just claimed for after a non-effort as the favorite last month. GENERALIST caught slop in his debut and raced on late without making an impression behind the more experienced GRAVITATING; takes the drop after failing to find a finish on turf last time.

THIRD RACE

In the event that the forecasted rain keeps things off the turf in the coming days, LEZENDARY rates to be tough in this spot as she drops out of a couple of much tougher races vs. stakes horses; improved noticeably to win her first two starts as a 3yo, including the Cicada with a new top figure. NO NEED TO APPEAL went back to back routing before enduring a layoff last summer, and she stumbled badly at the start of her return; wasn’t quite good enough after a good trip as the favorite last time, but she fits well here in we are off the turf. On grass, I’ll take OVER NEGOTIATE sprinting off the layoff and dropping in class; these turf sprints at Saratoga may be a little short for her, but she is better sprinting than she is routing. TOUCH OF BLING pulled off a frontrunning upset three starts back at Belmont but has failed to be competitive in her two most recent starts - though she was in over her head in the License Fee two back; can be the speed once again in this spot, which makes her dangerous. BLACK CANARY took advantage of an easy pace to win first time out up here as a 2yo over a field that, as it turned out, just wasn’t that good, and her only other win came when breezing along on a loose lead at Woodbine.

FOURTH RACE

FIDUCIARY VALUES fits a couple of different positive trainer patterns for Chad Brown on either surface and she only rates to appreciate this class drop after doing her best but proving to be no match in MSW dirt mile that still bears watching to find out exactly how good it was; she is clearly in a better spot here if we are off the turf. On grass, I would be willing to give PADDYDUNALOT a look at a price. she has to stretch out but this is likely the right move dropping in class and thought she showed a little run first time out before taking back to last behind a pace that was not at all competitive last time. LOVE TO SHARE enters with perhaps the best turf from in the field for a very good trainer and must be used.

FIFTH RACE

TOP OF THE PAGE may find the two-turn, ninefurlong distance a little far up here, but he has run very well in his two starts since shipping up to NY and this race may set up well for him with more than one distance-challenged stretch-out sprinter entered. GOT EVEN was no match for TOP OF THE PAGE up on the pace last time, and he will likely have

to deal with one of those stretch-out sprinters early, assuming this field remains intact, but he can get the distance for a dangerous trainer. KERRY BOY doesn’t have a top race that compares with the top two but he won three straight races around two-turns at Finger Lakes last year and he is perfectly drawn on the inside.

SIXTH RACE

INDY UNION posted her lone career win vs. just three others last year at Belmont, but she has exclusively faced stakes company since then and has actually improved while failing to class up with those better horses; good spot to break through as she catches a field with something to prove, most of them either stretching out or off the bench. ALBEROBELLO was impressive winning her second career start at Keeneland two back but she was really no match last time as a heavy-favorite at Belmont; willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for that one, but would be more comfortable with her if she had more pedigree to stretch out on the dam side. HAIL has to come forward pretty significantly as she makes her 3yo debut off the layoff, but there is a chance of that happening with well-bred filly who posted an easy win when stretched out for the first time off her debut. TIGALALU didn’t appear to be beating much first time out but she showed good speed that day and won easily for a trainer who has been on a roll with his first time starters lately. LAND MINE already a winner over track and trip, and over a wet track should that be the case, and she came back to win her next two starts on dirt as well; starts back from a good post.

SEVENTH RACE

FULLY VESTED returned from a layoff up here last summer and ran a very good race over a tough distance vs. a strong field of sprinters, then found an even tougher spot for his next start before hitting the sidelines once again; catches some first time starters here but this race rates not to be nearly as tough as the ones he landed in last year as he starts back as a new gelding. INTO A HOT SPOT debuts for a very good trainer with some pedigree as the first foal from a dam who is a sister to Commanding Curve, as well as recent impressive debut winner Mother Mother at Del Mar; appears to be training forwardly into his first start. IONA MOBE debuted at Keeneland last fall and contested the pace from start to finish before settling for second-best to an experienced rival; threat to jump up off the layoff. BIG MUDDY was purchased for $850k as a yearling three years ago but has yet to make a start for top connections; we’ll see.

EIGHTH RACE

HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME went through some of the wars as a 3yo while just a cut below the top of that division, and he has returned this year to hold his form at a level that is likely just a bit too tough for him; drops in for a trainer who is 4 for 11 in dirt routes at the last two Saratoga meets, with winners at 18:1, 17:1 and 9:1 ($4.25 ROI). MILLS has a little hang in him but he is back in the right kind of spot here after racing over his head in his recent dirt starts; closer projects to have some pace in front of him in this spot. DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING one of the speeds but he can carry it when he is right, and he has returned to form since the claim by his underrated trainer earlier this year.

NINTH RACE

LONG HAUL BAY needs his best in competitive running of the Morrissey but he has brought it every time so far, including that game runnerup effort in the slop behind the in-form Switzerland last time at Pimlico; think he might be a little too much for NY-breds, but this is a very good field. GOLD FOR THE KING was compromised by dynamics two back off the layoff but he took no prisoners last time, going right to the top and never looking back en route to facile top figure score; can handle this rise in class and doesn’t need the lead to be effective. RUNAWAY LUTE stepping up into a very tough spot but he has been in the best form of his life recently; signaled his improvement while keeping up close to a fast pace in a closers race two back, and he returned to crush weaker last time with a competitive figure. EYE LUV LULU was bet hard before dominating the Affirmed Success two start back then returned from a short layoff to run a bang-up race in the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint last time; dangerous for a red-hot trainer.

TENTH RACE

TWO SHAKES looking to turn things around for barn that has gone cold after beginning the Belmont meet on a good run; by a top turf sire, she is a half to the speedy Sunset Glow who was a fast sprinter early before winning a Grade 1 sprint on synthetic and then stretching out to place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. PARADISE RETAINED debuts for the hottest trainer on the grounds and she also has some pedigree by Speightstown and out of a dam who was a stakes winner on turf; Servis lights out with turf sprinters. SWEETER THAN WINE debuting for Pletcher from an outside post, by a turf sire but she has plenty of dirt underneath if we are off the grass.