ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, AWESOME JAZZ

FIRST RACE

WHENTHEDOVESCRY has two wins and a third from three grass starts, is reasonable spotted at $16K N3L claiming class after a $20K N2L win last out, and could get the jump on two main rivals, COLONEL ANDY and CHASINTHEBLUES. Colonel A is 16-1-7-1, Chasin is 38-2-5-5. Give me the lightly raced horse who has shown a nose for the winner’s circle over these far more exposed animals.

SECOND RACE

SUGAR SHACK tossed a couple quiet hints during her 2017 campaign that wound up never really going anywhere. Now she’s back for first start since January with lively work pattern for strong layoff outfit. Maybe just needed to mature? Price should be right. WEEKEND DELIGHT perhaps just given a race on turf to start career and has since turned in swift dirt drills. Also a price with POST PERFECTION and Fashion Week taking a lot of betting. Post Perfection listed at 5/2 on morning line and that wouldn’t be a fair price. Work pattern for 3yo firster not all that awesome and while immediate family is solid enough the dam is older and hasn’t had a good runner in several years.

THIRD RACE

SENSATIONAL NOTION got no traction on turf last out but the dirt form fits this race snugly. Won easily three back in only start showing as low as this $10K tag. Distance would be the concern but only because he hasn’t tried 7f, not that he’s tried and failed. LEGAL PRECEDENT probably should have finished better last time given the pace if he really were on top of his game, but not ruling out bounce-back from horse that often has raced for a higher claiming tag. CENT COMM, like the top pick, is better on dirt than his recent turf form. Has so far hit harder for $5K price, however.

FOURTH RACE

Generally unappealing race. KRESSES an even fourth vs. similar last out coming back from 2.5-month layoff. Her pre-break form hardly lays over this group, but mild improvement could get it done - emphasis “could.” HOLIDAY MAGICIAN the 8-5 morning-line chalk despite four straight losses at or about this class level. Hardly going to count on her running right back to that last-out improvement performance. CHEROKEE FIRE fell apart in April and May but could do if she returns (light work pattern) at level she showed before the decline.

FIFTH RACE

Main-track-only STEAMY HOT ran well in both starts this form cycle and with only five races behind her remains a horse with upside. This’ll turn into a one-turn mile if off the grass and she’s handled that already. SCATTERED THOUGHTS once was sent to lead and, perhaps not coincidentally, scored MTH maiden win last summer. The race lacks pace and with aggressive early tactics maybe she dictates terms. SOPHIA IS AN ANGEL caught wide with no cover last out and still nearly won at this level. Was quickly raised to turf stakes last year and, with only two grass routes on her resume, still can do better.

SIXTH RACE

DRIVE AT NITE caught inside on an outsidepaths-favoring PIM strip in only start this year. Trainer does best work with mid-term layoffs like this, and think there’s just enough pace percolating that she might get up this time at 5.5f-trip a little short of best. NO HIDING PLACE NO HIDING PLACE has been overmatched in a number of recent races and worked a bullet at LRL since shipping in for class drop. SING PRAISES is on a negative drop and her chances appear to depend on outrunning the other speed - dicey at short odds.

SEVENTH RACE

AWESOME JAZZ showed ample talent in debut circling for second after a poor start from the rail. Has to deal with inside draw again but experience could help. First race was on dirt but she’s the first foal to race from a dam who graduated by more than four lengths in a sprint the first time she tried turf. BALTIMORE BABE one start last year, one

start this, both turf sprints, both encouraging. Likely in the mix. DENDROBIA edged BB last time but has less upside on the day.

EIGHTH RACE

SHIMMERING ASPEN off since November but the one horse in the race who might come close in terms of raw ability, CRABCAKES, also is back from an extended vacation. Aspen trained by R Jenkins, who has won with six of last 12 similar comeback runners. Likely ready for this challenge. Crabcakes had a very nice 2017 campaign and twice has fired fresh but Aspen easily beat her when last they met. HAILEY’S FLIP has a recency edge on the top two - the problem being her two recent starts have lacked luster. Was better last year. Might be just slow to come around.

NINTH RACE

Main-track-only VALADIER stuck down inside after breaking from rail at PIM in first and only start and held her own in a race at this class level. Didn’t work back for almost two months, which isn’t a great sign, but got in three recent drills and entered back at same level. ALY’S LION’s second career start hardly set the world on fire but was far better than her first. She tried for the lead last time and couldn’t quite make it, and I’d be interested to see how far she could go if able to clear early under a 7-pound bug. I AIN’T NEVER cut back from longer races last time and, logically, lacked the quickness to quite keep up in a turf sprint like this. Probably can do a bit better second time at the trip.