ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, BOUJIE GIRL

FIRST RACE

The 2yo first-time starter BOUJIE GIRL debuts with a solid work pattern and win-early pedigree (firstcrop sire Flashback 2-for-7 with first-time starters into Sunday). Trainer Peter Miller has won with 6 of 24 with Del Mar 2yo maiden-claiming firsters. From the outside post, the gray filly enters as the most probable winner on a sleepy Thursday card. LESLEY’S SONG has something the top choice lacks. That is, racing experience. She chased and faded in MSW debut, now drops to maiden-80 and should improve. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was on a roll opening week; he also entered first-time starter NOONSHINE, whose sire gets a high rate of debut winners (23 percent). MIDNIGHT MIRACLE debuts for a Southwest-based trainer whose 2yo firsters usually are ready to fire.

SECOND RACE

RPRETTYBOYFLOYD was in tough last out; he drops to the $8k bottom claiming level as the one to beat based on his $12.5k claiming win two back. Trainer David Jacobson and jockey Martin Pedroza were 9-for-41 together this year into last weekend. EXOTIC GHOST was claimed for $6,250 from a third last out in a small field. The runner-up did return to win, and new trainer Reed Saldana is holding a hot hand. ‘GHOST will be on or near the front end. BANZE NO OESTE drops to the bottom and will roll late in a race that should unfold at a legitimate pace.

THIRD RACE

DR. TROUTMAN enters as one of the most probable winners on the card based on successive runnerup finishes in spring at Santa Anita. He gets top rider Flavien Prat this time; he has a versatile running style that allows him to press the pace and still provide a late kick. The 1-for-20 gelding should be tough to beat. FAMOUS ROCK STAR trounced Calbred maiden-50s by more than eight lengths last out, the race did produce a next-out winner. WORTHY TURK is a maiden facing winners, but starter allowance races occasionally are won by maidens. Lightly raced ‘TURK is stretching out for the first time and could make the lead. The turf course was kind to speed opening week when the rails were down, but the rails are at 30 feet this week. When the rail setting changes at Del Mar, the course profile often changes also.

FOURTH RACE

An outside post, drop in class, and comeback under his belt are reasons NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY can improve enough to win this $25k claiming sprint for 3yos. He earned respectable figures last year at 2; his closing style should play well in a field with plenty of pace. BRIGHT AUTISM MIND might have been the top choice based on trainer Bill Spawr’s record first start off the claim. He does exceptionally well with “f.o.c.” comebackers. The challenge for lightly raced ‘MIND is the inside post in a race with lots of speed to his outside. Still, the 3yo is eligible to improve as a first-time gelding, and if he can somehow work out a trip from the rail he should fire a top shot first start since February. IRISH SKY returns to the claiming ranks, while CANDY CREW might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Freshened since early last month when he lost his rider, the speedster is racing at the lowest level of his career and he does run well fresh (debut winner, comeback runnerup).

FIFTH RACE

Trainer Val Brinkerhoff had a big opening week at Del Mar (Oceanside Stakes and runaway maiden win); the momentum might continue with ARCH PRINCE in this $20k claiming N3L route. ‘PRINCE won here last summer on turf, he won in spring on dirt, he drops from allowance company and has a versatile pressing style along with low-80s Beyer Figures that make him the one to beat with a pressing trip. He will have to catch KONA DREAMS, who stretches back to a route and looks like the one to catch. Speed was good opening week in dirt routes, although the first five dirt-route winners were favorites. SEAU is arguably the “fastest” in the field; he could vie for favoritism based on the 88 Beyer he earned his most recent dirt start. The concern is throughout his career he has promised more than he has delivered. He does figure prominently based on figures.

BABY GRONK could start as the shortest price of the day; he “should” win this Calbred maiden sprint based on three successive highly rated runner-up finishes. He ran fast enough (83-84 Beyers) to win all three, he finished 10 lengths clear of third last out and five clear in two starts before that. He sure looks like a low-odds standout. First-time starter RED ENVELOPE looms an upset candidate. He appears to have trained okay at San Luis Rey. Other than the top choice, this race came up murky. AIR JOCKEY ran well finishing third despite a compromising trip in his debut in February. Solid workout pattern for his secondstart comeback.

SEVENTH RACE

In a competitive Calbred N1X turf mile, X S GOLD gets the call based on successive runner-up finishes under similar circumstances in spring at Santa Anita. Her front-running style would have played well opening week over a turf course that was kind to speed. It remains to be seen if the profile will continue this week with the rails moved out to a 30-foot setting. If X S GOLD rations her speed, she can win with an up-front trip. However, SEA SMOKE will be positioned right behind her. This is just her second start back. Though she finished three lengths behind the top choice last out, it is fair to believe that ‘SMOKE can improve with a race under her belt. A WALK IN THE PARK has changed trainers since a sharp maiden score over a next-out winner. Lightly raced, improving, eligible to make another forward move. MOONSHINE ANNIE has run races that put her in the hunt.

EIGHTH RACE

Runner-up both recent starts, also-eligible IRISH TERRIER is the right horse in this modest Calbred maiden-50 for 2yos. If he does not draw in, second-time starter SILENT ALARM becomes the one to beat. He might be, anyway. Third in his debut, he was gelded since that creditable effort and adds blinkers. EIGHTY PROOF make his debut as a potential upset candidate for a trainer that has popped with longshot rookies. Mick Ruis is 4-for18 with firsters including winners that paid $92 and $73.60.