ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

BUSTIN HEARTS enters with 9 for 17 overall mark 7 for 12 around one turn - and exiting a game win at Finger Lakes when closing down a loose leader in the stretch; hasn’t raced on this circuit since 2016 when just missing at Belmont and he has improved since then. ARCHUMYBABY underrated and turning back to sprint after pairing up career-best 71 Beyers in her last two starts at Belmont; has some speed from the rail but doesn’t need the lead to run her race. SATIN SHEETS finally broke through the maiden ranks two starts back in career start #9, and she was logically spotted to win right back vs. two-life claimers; out of the restricted claiming ranks off the claim for an excellent trainer.

SECOND RACE

TENENCY hasn’t run fast enough to figure in a field like this one yet, but he actually ran pretty well with a tough trip in his debut on Derby Day and he was chasing a fast pace in a race that went to closers last time; better than he looks starting back with a bullet breeze in tow. READY TO ESCAPE and LIGHT THE POSSE form a strong entry for Charlie Baker, as they both have run well without winning from their three combined starts. READY TO ESCAPE appeared to really need his debut when failing to break sharply from the gate and then getting held up behind horses early, and he improved last time while no match for a sharp wire-to-wire winner. LIGHT THE POSSE adds Lasix for his second start after beginning greenly and getting outrun early in his debut, and then splitting horses to finish gamely for 2nd late. ROYAL HEIST goes for lowerprofile connections but he has run well in his first two starts while flashing good speed; dangerous if able to clear early this time.

THIRD RACE

FRONTIER MARKET starting to run out of chances after dropping three straight in close decisions at short prices, but he has exceeded par for the level in all of those races and just looks better than his competition in this spot; won’t get another chance after this. LONHTWIST appeared to be prepping while showing good speed to contest a solid pace sprinting on dirt in a race that collapsed late in his debut; bred turf and his speed will play in this race at a price. HIERARCHY was away from the gate fine in his debut before lacking the speed to keep close to the leaders, and he was last at the top of the stretch before putting in a game finish while on his wrong lead through the stretch to close some ground; can do better with that one out of the way but he needs to keep himself in range and save some ground over the inner turf here.

FOURTH RACE

BIG DOLLAR BILL improving right along since switched back to dirt late last year and he was badly compromised last time in a paceless race as the favorite; has to get a very difficult distance here but he can factor at a fair price if he can handle it. HARD STUDY the clear horse to beat as he looks to defend his Birdstone title; came back in form after a layoff this year to win his first two starts, and he ran his race vs. a couple of better horses in the Brooklyn last time. CARLINO has much to prove over a distance like this but his Brooklyn wasn’t bad vs. a much better field; has much to gain on a horse like HARD STUDY.

FIFTH RACE

NON FINISCE MAI capable of a race that would make her hard on a field like this one, but she has had some issues from the start that keep her off the track consistently and force her to frequently start from scratch; returns fresh and at the level of easy win over track and trip last August. LOOSE and DARING PROSPECT both main contenders off the claim away from Rudy Rodriguez, who had them

going good before they were claimed away. LOOSE turned her form around to win 5 of her 7 starts sprinting for Rudy, the last two at this level, and she will make her first start for the ever-dangerous Brad Cox in this spot. DARING PROSPECT turns back after contesting the pace and tiring over a mile for nearly twice this price last time; crushed a field of restricted claimers at Parx once start prior to that, but she is dropping off the claim for this.

SIXTH RACE

SOUPER ECHO couldn’t get involved when making her 3yo debut off the layoff in a race that was slow to develop up front last time, but she showed good speed while just missing in pair of 2yo starts going shorter and he has enough pedigree to handle the switch to grass; class relief only helps. DIVA’S REVENGE chased the pace while three-wide and edged closer through the turn before tiring late in her early season debut; drops for her second start and she has the pedigree to handle turf. JASMINE’S GEM has had more chances than most of these, and had already come up short at this level twice, but she has also run the best turf races in this field; not against her trying to sprint for the first time here, though this kind of cut back on the grass is a tough transition to make.

SEVENTH RACE

SENTRY was never that bad to begin with, but he has improved since starting back this year and has run well in his first two starts at this level while facing horses that are better than the field he meets in this spot; don’t think he was winning that race two back but he would have been 2nd there with a different trip. CROSS BORDER a new face of some interest after winning two in a row for a trainer who has picked up the pace after a slow run in NY over the past few months; can get this far and like his speed on the inner turf. SPORT was often disappointing early on in his career, though not without e=some excuses, and he finally had things break the right way when routing maiden claimers with a nice trip up here last week; back quickly looking to capitalize.

EIGHTH RACE

DREAM PAULINE has made just the one lateseason start as a 2yo and while that race didn’t come back fast, she was impressive there to take command once asked to go; bred to be at least this good and begins in entry-level allowance that didn’t come back nearly as strong as it could have. ISOTOPE has attained something of a level as far as figures go but she has improved for this trainer lately and exits a race in this condition where she was way up against it chasing a loose winner over a speed-favoring track; having a win up here last year a positive, if nothing else. NAPLES PRINCESS second off the layoff after gaining ground too late in a race that appeared to be getting hungry late last time, though the winner was exiting a fast race and the runnerup came back to win up here last week; Mott off to a good start at the meet.

NINTH RACE

ONTHEMOONAGAIN went three for four as a 2yo and then returned last year to hold her own in the toughest races for 3yo fillies in France; faces a modest-looking group here for Chad Brown who is 5 for his last 11 with Foreign shippers in turf routes at Saratoga ($3.59 ROI). DANCELAND had a tough trip in her return from the layoff at Keeneland, but she managed to work her way through some stretch traffic to get her nose down at the right time at Belmont most recently; doesn’t appear to be much pace to set her up in this spot. DYNATAIL hasn’t won a race since surviving some pace pressure to take the Penn Oaks last June, but she has tried some tougher spots and she likely wasn’t helped by electing to concede the lead three back at Belmont; has the kind of speed to be dangerous in a race like this.

TENTH RACE

MARKET ALLEY needs the blinker change she is getting here after getting out badly on the turn while on the lead in each of her last two races, which opened things up for a pace-tracking rival to come through on her inside to take over; has speed as she takes a little class drop and she may be able to do better if keeping a straight course this time.

SPECIAL TRIP endured a very tough trip sprinting in her debut last September, but she has had one perfect one after another since and has failed to get it done; class relief only helps well-connected filly with tactical speed. PADDYDUNALOT may need a bit more class relief than this, but she made a little run first time to get 3rd and she was badly compromised last time when taken back to last behind a pace that was not competitive at all in front of her; stretch out should allow her to keep closer. Union Avenue Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 (518) 584-6200 Main track: One and one-eighths mile, oval. Mellon turf course: One mile, 98 feet. Inner turf course: Seven Furlongs, 304 feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,144 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick 4 and Superfecta wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days)