ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, GO GONE GONE

FIRST RACE

With mostly claiming starts in her past performances, ATHERA might slip past the wagering public. Provided she sticks close to her 6-1 morning line, she would represent value at that price given her 12-4-1-2 record on turf and success over the local course. Her Beyers are also competitive with those of the favorites. LAFTA comes here with flashy form from France, and will take strong support on that basis. She acts legit, but with a limited published worktab and not having raced since last fall, she might need a start to regain peak fitness. STAR’S BELLA VITA won an allowance last summer at Indiana Grande, one of three victories she has in 15 starts on turf; solid efforts of late in claimers at Churchill but could get pressured on the lead by SLY ROXY, who after getting keen when rated in her latest, might be allowed to run more freely on Thursday.

SECOND RACE

In a low-end open claimer in which most of the entrants have won three or four races, the edge goes to WINNING FOR SARAH, who has won 10 of 56 starts. She is most effective when racing on a dry fast track, having recorded all of her wins on such types of tracks in 44 races; claimed from her last two starts and coming of a runner-up finish. TIUNA disappointed in her latest but is typically dangerous when she makes the lead - and that scenario seems likely in this race unless the inside-drawn filly comes out gunning. POOPSIE DOOPSIE starts for the winning Calabrese crew, though her claiming accomplishments - at least within the open ranks - do not measure up next to the top two; thirds and fourths since clearing the N3L condition.

THIRD RACE

BONES seems well served by her outside draw, from which she should be able to work out a nice pressing/stalking trip in a race with an aboveaverage amount of speed for a short field; proven fresh, never off the board in five starts, and dropped from stakes company. R NEXT ROLL, on the other hand, drew the fence with a couple speed horses immediately lapped on her in posts two and three. Still, she might simply be faster than them, and her form is certainly sharp, having been first or second in three straight races. NIKKI BELLA won her first two starts before losing her last four. Only poor effort over that stretch came in her latest when sixth, beaten 17 lengths, and she went to the sidelines following that May 10 effort, likely an indication something was amiss; can challenge if she returns to her best form off the break.

FOURTH RACE

There are many unknowns with 2-year-old maiden racing in general - first timers, limited form, etc. but with this maiden claimer being over a mile on grass, there is even more uncertainty. So handicapped this race looking for a horse with potential to move up and settled on HUNTERS DREAM. Although soundly beaten in his only start, he races for a high-percentage second-out barn, and he has some turf blood in his pedigree. DAKOTA’S DUDE and KARAS, meanwhile, have already raced two turns on turf, with ‘DUDE running third and KARAS fourth in a slightly richer maiden claimer July 8. Neither performance was particularly noteworthy.

FIFTH RACE

For a filly that had finished second five times over his first 12 starts, NOTHINS FREE was game in winning a N2L claimer July 5 here by a neck. The form from that race has also held up, with the third-place finisher returning to win; mid 60s Beyers in two of her last three races - easily the best recent numbers in here. DERBY DAY DARLING is speedy but has struggled to finish effectively since winning first out at 4 1/2 furlongs; at least encouraged to see her cut back from a mile to 6 furlongs. DANCING DONUT dominated on the lead last out against cheaper, but now rises in class and seems unlikely to be able to shake clear in the middle stages as she did last out; regression candidate.

OVER SENSUAL owns by far the highest Beyer in the field, a 72, earned in running second Jun 30. Although that race came for a cheaper maiden $10,000 tag, it seemed a quality contest for the level - with two next-out winners from it, including the third-place finisher. ‘SENSUAL also has respective experience racing at or above this maiden $20,000 price going back to last year in Canada. COOL MOVER was claimed by winning connections for this price on July 22 when sixth of 11 on the turf. A start before that race this colt had been a closing third with trouble in a dirt sprint; lack of early speed is a drawback. SKY POINT has yet to run as well as either of the top two but is lightly raced and may have the potential to move up as he gains experience; difficult trips in each of his two starts.

SEVENTH RACE

GO GONE GONE rolled on the lead against similar first time off the claim, and stands a nice chance to repeat; well suited to sprinting five eighths, whether he is racing on turf or dirt. FEDERAL RESERVE beat the top choice when they met in a $10,000 claimer June 20 after outsprinting that one to the lead; possesses a fine 10-4-1-1 record on turf, though yet to run better than fourth in four tries against first-level Florida-bred types. AMBASSADOR JIM gets significant class relief, dropping out of open stakes and allowances this year in New York; is an unknown sprinting five eighths, however, and though there is significant pace to aid his rally, have to wonder if this will prove his best trip.

EIGHTH RACE

I’M CARDINAL has run Beyers in the low 70s in two of his last three races, with the exception coming when he sprinted on turf. An 11-time winner, he is far more effective on dirt, as he showed with a third-place finish locally last out on July 5, even after a poor start. JERSEY STREET has a second, a third, and a close fifth in three starts in the open $6,250 claiming ranks since winning a N3L; tactical speed to be prominent and winning connections in his corner. WILD GOOD enters this race following four straight rear-half finishes, but has back class, and perhaps can be forgiven for at least his latest when sixth after a layoff of over 4 1/2 months.

NINTH RACE

TREASURED INFO, unable to keep up with straight maidens on dirt, should benefit from a class drop into the maiden claiming ranks and even more so, from a shift to the grass; value-based selection at her 6-1 price in the nightcap. MARDI GRAS GIRL is speedy and already has a couple runner-up finishes from four starts; nd a little concerned by how she faded to eighth in her latest, though. TOWA, another speedy type, has a third and a second in two starts since dropping into the maiden claiming ranks; untested on turf, like the overwhelming majority of these.