ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, HAY DILLY

FIRST RACE

WOLVERETTE stretched from sprints to a route last time and got her last 2.5 furlongs in a very respectable 29.62 seconds. Better draw here in a short field of VA-bred MSWs as she goes long for the second straight time. Wolv feels like she has more upside on the day than DANIELLA and HOLIDAY HOPES. Prefer the former to the latter particularly if the morning-line is close to right though both are moving solidly into the realm of professional maidenhood.

SECOND RACE

HAY DILLY bid into a very strong pace pretty early last out in a decent CD stakes race after winning her debut with more patient tactics. Drawn outside with plenty of speed in this rare 2yo N1X allowance and from this spot jockey can see what unfolds and act accordingly. Looks from here like the most talented and barn has been on a roll. QUESTION OF THE DAY might not have loved Tapeta at WO last out in the My Dear S. after a local debut win. Blinkers on for the race and perhaps fitted for the recent bullet drill, as well. “Main danger,” as they say. Would comfortably side with the top two over HELEN if as forecast on the M/L Helen is the favorite here. She ran less than two weeks ago and only beat four in an MSW after debuting for a $40K tag, Expect Hay Dilly to be the chalk.

THIRD RACE

DOB DOB been logging the miles for career debut at M Dickinson’s Tapeta Farm and definitely looks set for first start. Best near sibling is dirt stakes horse Isn’t He Clever but there is plenty of grass in the pedigree. SCARAMUCCI’s even and decent turf-sprint debut hinted at a horse that ought to be able to get an early-season 2yo middle distance around two turns. Main-track only GLAD DAD gelded and now with blinkers, and finished off first two starts like he might get longer soon.

FOURTH RACE

If ANOTHER BROAD really is going to be something like 5/1 compared to odds-on TIMELESS CURLS, well, we’ll try the price. AB decent runs in her first two starts, both sprints, while racing like a horse who could do better around a second turn. She’s bred for that, as well. TIMELESS CURLS already has lost twice as the favorite and has gone down in all three start at a short price. She ran all right last time stretched from sprints to a mile but did cough up a two-length stretch-call lead. Just can’t see a lot of upside. ACTING CHIPPER could do much than her debut since she’s getting Lasix, blinkers, and a longer distance this start.

FIFTH RACE

MOKHEEF had one sprint to start his career than immediately was stretched to two turns and stuck with route racing. This was all on dirt. Now in a new barn he was switched to turf last time and returned from a break in a sprint. Turned in a decent third at this level while appearing to handle the surface, and why wouldn’t he do better pushed back out to the proper trip second time out this cycle? Should be fine on dirt, too, if it comes to that. BARIN just appears to be a stronger racehorse this year at age 4 so I’ll rate him on the three starts this season and paper over the older stuff. Lost ground last time in race where the leaders never came back. MACCABEE lightly raced and beaten just 1.25 lengths last two starts in DEL turf races against similar competition. Might be on or near lead if they get aggressive.

SIXTH RACE

CLOSE THE DEAL probably overlooked in wagering. Gutted out narrow win one condition lower than this starter / claimer class last time but has run better than that before, isn’t entered for a tag, and could come forward second race after a layoff. 3yo with limited dirt experience and some upside. MISS JAK could wind up taking heavy betting, as do many LRL runners from the C Gonzalez barn, but on form (not trainer mystique) she’s got no real edge on a few others. Do like the draw for preferred style and suspect she’s ready for something on top end of performance range. LIL HABIT

OF MINE’s last-start turf route could be seen as a red herring and her string of dirt sprints last season that would fit very well here are duly noted.

SEVENTH RACE

Can’t quite see SETUBAL being as high a price as the morning-line. Been running one-mile races with a last-start 7f but showed at TAM she can get two turns under the right circumstances. Think the last was actually too short and sharp, and two back she chased on in race coded as speed-dominant. Four works since last out. TIZ A DIAMOND was badly overmatched making 2018 debut last out in an MTH stakes, but surely that was a setup for move back into much more realistic spot here. JUSTA SCOCH has two races this form cycle that fit - provided she can run like that in a two-turn race. Not sure she can.

EIGHTH RACE

FOREVER LIESL likely to be overbet but see her as likeliest enough winner to swallow the short price. Several layoff lines over the last 13 months are some cause for concern, but she was in tougher last out at MTH and perhaps at least as important raced at a two-turn trip that seems a little too much for her. Likes LRL and one-turn miles and well drawn to deploy speed. FILL UP COHEN-SAPIKER has 12 exacta finishes from 14 starts, has already been competitive at this level, gets the distance - but not quite as talented as top one. 3yo

BLUE STRIKE seemed to be on a nice development arc until the DEL Oaks last time. Bounce-back potential.

NINTH RACE

Anything can happen but the K Rubley barn is set up for a big day at Laurel with THE TORTOISE the last of a few entries that really fit their spots like a glove. Has a little hang to him but ought to be able to finish these off back on turf after PID stakes try on the all-weather. SIPPIN’ ON BUBBLES had little chance in either of his two 2018 starts and figures to be a very fair price. He’s unfortunately drawn way on the outside. JORRIN badly last time but runs right back under starter conditions again and might make things interesting if loose on the lead turf or dirt, but especially dirt.