ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DADDY’S MISTRESS

FIRST RACE

Veteran mare CLEVERLY BEVERLY, an 11-time winner good enough early this year to finish second in a minor stakes at Turf Paradise, gets the call in this turf mile for Cal-bred fillies and mares. Her third-place finish last out in a turf sprint at Santa Anita at this class level shows she can still be competitive in So Cal. Tab in a scramble. Trouble-prone CLEARLY GONE figures as a contender based on her maiden win two starts back. She is a tough filly to ride (“steadied” her last three), but she has gradually improved since stretching out this year and is reunited with the only jockey she has won with. STREAK OF LUCK, the only starter in this field with a win over this turf course (starter allowance last fall), returns from a three-month freshening.

SECOND RACE

MAJESTIC DESIGN switched to dirt, dropped in class and obliterated bottom-level maiden-claiming fillies and mares by 10 lengths. Big win, solid pace, fast time. She is realistically spotted for her first try against winners, showing up at the bottom level for winners ($16k claiming non-winners two). No reason she cannot fire right back. SWEET TREAT enters with a similar pattern, albeit two months ago. She won a maiden-20 at Santa Anita; at least two that finished behind her returned to win their next start. She fits with this bunch. KHALEESI drops a notch in class and returns to dirt. She gets in light with a seven-pound apprentice rider and might be the one they have to catch.

THIRD RACE

TEQUILA BLANCO ran possibly the best race of his career finishing fourth last out when he switched to a turf route for the first time. It was a strange race. The pace was excruciating (:45.52 and 1:09.93), yet the front-runners finished one-two. ‘BLANCO closed from midpack and missed by only three lengths. The good effort makes him the one to beat in this maiden-62.5k turf mile. Alsoeligible SPIRIT MISSION is in from Monmouth; his pedigree is good for grass. Sired by Scat Daddy, produced by an Irish mare. First start in California, first start for a claim tag, his runner-up finish two starts back on dirt is arguably the “fastest” in the field based on speed figures. BIG SKY LOGAN had a tough trip last time in the same race the top choice exits. ‘LOGAN split the field and might have finished closer without trouble.

FOURTH RACE

Runner-up at this maiden-40 level last out while finishing two lengths in front of a next-start winner, VINAKA returns from a two-month break as a logical selection. LOVELY RAQUEL drops to maiden-claiming for the first time, in her first start of the year. A 5yo mare, this is possibly her easiest chance yet. ONE UPPER has two sixth-place turf sprints under her belt against maiden-75 company. She drops to maiden-40 and gives dirt a try. This field is modest.

FIFTH RACE

A competitive starter allowance at nine furlongs on turf, maybe LEWIS VALE will slip through the parimutuel cracks like both recent turf starts including a runner-up-by-a-head finish last out at 20-1. The nine-win gelding is proven at this distance, his current form is solid, he can be positioned close to tepid fractions and his recent figures are among the tops in the field. POPULAR KID took advantage of a collapsing pace to loop the field and win going away the first race of the meet. Claimed by Bob Hess Jr. in a 13-way shake, the late-runner will put in another big rally if he handles the footing. That could be a problem. He is 4 for 20 on dirt, but he is 0 for 10 on turf. Still consider him a contender, anyway, MITHQAAL looms a potential theft candidate. He pressed his way to successive wins on the Golden Gate turf; he will either set or press the pace as he stretches out another furlong. TOUGH IT OUT made no impact last time as the favorite in a curious race. The closers in the field all stayed at the back and did not rally. If that race can be disregarded, TOUGH IT OUT figures based on back-toback wins two previous starts at one mile.

SIXTH RACE

Assuming the high-figure starter in this maiden20 is vulnerable at six furlongs, perhaps KOPITAR or HAYNE’S PAL can upset RAINDANCE RULES. The last-start runner-up by KOPITAR was promising his first try at this class level. He is drawn outside for his first start since changing trainers, his normal pressing/stalking style could play well positioned behind the speed. HAYNE’S PAL improved second out, runner-up as the favorite in a maiden-30. One final drop could do the trick. RAINDANCE RULES probably would crush this field if he ran back to either of his two recent runner-up finishes. He finished far clear of third both times and earned speed figures in both. However, both races were five furlongs. At longer distances, he seems suspect. That is, unless he has matured into a faster horse this year, which is entirely possible. CHATTERMAN goes first off the claim and will rally late.

SEVENTH RACE

SIGUR ROS is the name of an Icelandic rock band and also the choice to spring a mild upset in this N2X turf sprint. His N1X victory two back was solid; he set a strong pace and held. But when he moved up to this N2X level next out, a blazing pace took its toll and he faded. Freshened nearly two months, working well, SIGUR ROSE might face a slightly softer pace scenario as he shortens from six and one-half furlongs to five. ERIC THE TROJAN is a horse for course; he won a turf sprint here the past two summers. He exits the same race as the top choice; ‘TROJAN has the opposite style. The closer will fly late while reunited with the only rider he has won under (five wins with Flavien Prat). TINA’S EXCHANGE moves up a notch off a N1X win on the Santa Anita; he could tuck into a comfortable trip right behind the speed. Route to sprint MY MAN CHUCKLES will rally from the back; MRAZEK is a Calbred stakes winner that has not raced in nearly two years; front-runners/ pressers EDDIE HASKELL and ARISTOCRATIC will try to keep the top choice honest.

EIGHTH RACE

Improving each start, last-out runner-up DADDY’S MISTRESS looks best of a modest field of maiden32 juvenile fillies. Her figures are gradually inching up; she is a sibling to four winners. Also-eligible PORTAL CREEK improved a bunch her second start, finishing an okay third over this track opening week. She drops slightly from maiden-50, with speed for a pressing trip. CURRYFORTHREE BANG makes her debut for a trainer that does well with this type. Peter Miller is 13 for 43 (30 percent) the past five years with juvenile maiden-claiming first-time starters. ‘BANG was produced by Frozen Music, maiden sibling to G1 winner Joyful Victory. The first four foals from Frozen Music have a combined one win. ARE RATED had trouble and finished an okay second in her debut. She can improve.