ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, TRICKY ESCAPE

FIRST RACE

MAKARIOS was an underrated turf horse as a 3yo, holding his own in some tough spots while frequently having trips and race dynamics work against him; returned in slow-paced route at Keeneland and appeared to be getting a race in there while never making an aggressive move into the race. SOUPER TAPIT had no excuse after a nice trip in his first start back, which was rained off to dirt, but he can do better with that one out of the way and his speed plays from the inside post; didn’t love his turf races last year but he had traffic trouble at Aqueduct in November and was contesting a solid pace in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby before giving way. HOLIDAY STONE much like MAKARIOS in that he held his own in some tough spots as a 3yo without managing to win a big one; has the speed to pull a trip here if he is ready right off the bench.

SECOND RACE

ALL AMERICAN HERO is by an excellent turf sire in Hard Spun and he is a half to turf stakes winner Giant Payday, as well as a couple of other talented runners from this dam; brought $400k after breezing 21.2 in April and debuts for a barn that has sent out some live looking firsters already at this meet. MEDINA RIDGE has a big pedigree for grass as a War Front out of the multiple Grade 3 turf winner Hit it Rich, and he is a full brother to two turf winners, including Profiteer who won up here last summer; Shug won’t ask too much of his babies but he can get one to win right away if they are up for it. MALTHAEL is by a sire expected to be a strong turf influence (though he is not off to a fast start from a small sample) but has more of a dirt pedigree on the dam side as a brother to the top class dirt sprinter A. P. Indian from a dam who had plenty of success on the main track; Clement excellent with 2yos debuting on turf up here and he thinks this is the right surface. NOBLE NEBRASKAN has a big pedigree for turf being from a strong Juddmonte female family and his trainer is dangerous with firsters up here. SOCIAL PARANOIA 0-2 to start on dirt for Pletcher, but bred to move up on grass; tough post but he’s dangerous if he can clear.

THIRD RACE

With no real established form to get excited about in this field, I’ll try TOGA debuting for Jeremiah Englehart, who is underrated with his first-time starters. TOGA is a 4yo making his debut in August, but he is by a solid stallion and his dam won six times in her career, all of them sprinting on dirt, while earning over $220k the hard way. OUR AMERICAN STAR enters at 0-21 and is just about out of chances for me, but he has hit the board in each of his last four starts and he is likely to contend for this once again with his typical race. PRETERNATURAL finished ahead of both NINJA BOYS and ONE MORE TOM when they all failed to threaten in MSW mile at Belmont in June, and he does appear to have a little more pace than both of those rivals as all three of them turn back and drop in class. Tough race but one to definitely keep an open mind about.

FOURTH RACE

FAST GETAWAY got bet in his dirt debut and had speed in that race, but he never looked that strong up on the lead and gave way readily when challenged. Looked like a totally different horse on turf in his second start when overpowering a field in the stretch with a solid figure and he steps up for a trainer who is 11 for her last 17 (65%) with last out winners on turf at Saratoga ($6.48 ROI). VITSAL the one to beat stepping in with NY-breds for the first time after failing to class up with some better

horses out of town; owns a couple of stand out figs and has some speed, but his lone win came when loose and then turning away a faint-hearted rival in the stretch. BELLEVILLE SPRING cutting back a bit for this after laying down a fast pace going seven vs. a better field and giving way in the stretch; turf debut wasn’t bad but he may just be a better dirt horse.

FIFTH RACE

UNI won just one of her four starts after arriving stateside to face the best 3yo fillies last year, but she ran well in all of them and was unlucky not to pick up at least one other victory; unclear what has kept her from the track so far this year, but she started back with an impressive win in an overnight stake at Aqueduct while quickening up once clear in the stretch and the pace-tracking tactics employed that day could serve her well going forward. PRECIEUSE pulled off an upset to win a major Group 1 for 3yo fillies in France last May and while she may have taken advantage of soft ground in that spot she also finished strong once altered clear in the straight to win the race convincingly, and she has run well in her first two starts of the year, as well; figures tough here with that kind of form but has to be ready after over 400 days on the sidelines. ON LEAVE takes a step back after facing some tougher horses in her first three starts of the year and running well in all of those races; hasn’t exactly come forward following a progressive 3yo campaign in 2016, but she is still good and fits very well in a race like this one.

SIXTH RACE

ILLUDERE was outfinished by Hersh when they both debuted (and both ran well) in July at Belmont but he was chasing a fast pace in that race all the way before going to challenge it four-wide on the turn, and he continued on gamely in the stretch while the closers came to take over late; has to run at least that well vs. this field but his effort there may go overlooked a bit. BUSINESS CYCLE made a belated debut well into his 4yo year and moved forward strongly up the rail after breaking a bit slowly to chase the talented Westwood all the way before finishing a good 2nd; starts back off the layoff with the top figure in the field by a clear margin. HERSH took advantage of that fast pace in front of him when rallying gamely for 2nd in his debut, but he also raced a bit greenly early in that spot as though he was in need of the experience; good effort there and one he can back up in this race. ALKHAATAM sprinting off the layoff after a pair of promising efforts going longer as a 2yo, including underrated Remsen try where he was wide after being outrun and had no chance late with the leaders powering clear; do wonder if this is just a place to get started for him. DARK N CLOUDY earned a Beyer of just 61 first time out at Gulfstream but he had plenty of early trouble in that race before going greenly and can improve quickly for Pletcher.

SEVENTH RACE

MUCHO likely facing a fast horse or two in this race but he may be quite a bit better than his 48 Beyer debut indicates after getting bumped back at the start and then being rated behind a slow pace in a short field; he did finish well in that race and shows up for his second start with an improved line up of works. JUSTICE OF WAR debuts for Asmussen who has started seven 2yo maidens on dirt so far at the meet and finished first with six of them - one was disqualified for some reason that wasn’t clear on the tape; Strong Mandate colt is the first foal from his dam but brought $550k after breezing an easylooking 10-flat back in April. MOON COLONY an Uncle Mo half-brother to Cavorting who won four graded stakes at Saratoga in her career, including the Grade 1 Test; appears to be training right along into this. AHEAD OF PLAN needs a scratch to get in but he also worked 10-flat at OBS April and was purchased by top connections for $475k despite not having a ton of pedigree.

EIGHTH RACE

MINIT TO STARDOM getting a big test here while stepping way up in class in just her second start of the year, but she could hardly have been more impressive that she has been in her first three starts and she earned a figure last time that suggests she fits with this group while never having to get down to serious business; has to prove that she can cope with the faster pace she is going to encounter here, but she deserves the chance for a trainer who picks his spots well when shipping to NY. KELLY’S HUMOR will also have to step things up in this race but she fits the expected dynamics well with her closing style and the case could easily be made that she has not really had a fair chance in any of her races so far this year; Cox 34%, $2.57 ROI turning back on dirt over the past five years. CLASSY ACT took a tough beat when doing all the hard work in the pace and just getting closed down by a big longshot in the Victory Ride last time; didn’t love that race overall but she was clearly best in there while defeating several of these same horses.

NINTH RACE

DIVERSIFY was late to enter the Whitney but became the favorite as soon as it was decided he would run based on front-running domination of the Suburban last month on a fast pace; no distance concerns for NY-bred who is a dual graded stakes winner over 10 furlongs and he is likely to be free-wheeling on the lead once again in this spot. MIND YOUR BISCUITS about as good as it gets in this game with a strong overall body of work and just when you think he’s done the best work of his career, he shows up with another performance that makes you have to reevaluate him all over again; ran lights out to just miss in the Met Mile last time and he is going to be handful here if he can get the distance - which is clearly the big concern. BACKYARD HEAVEN was a tough horse to evaluate after earning a big figure when working pretty hard to defeat the admirable but not that fast Mr. Buff back in March and wasn’t so sure he cleared anything up when coming right back to race off Always Dreaming with little difficulty on the pace in the Alysheba, either; won’t be too hard on him for his no-show Stephen Foster but will make him beat me here.

TENTH RACE

TRICKY ESCAPE was back out to a better distance at Delaware last time and there was never really a point in that race where it didn’t look like she would win before getting clear and doing what she had to do; prior two starts in NY came over distances short of her best and think she can go with these horses at a fair price. SANTA MONICA was only okay in Europe while compiling a 2-22 overall record, but she has fit in well her to win 2 of 3, including a nice win in a Woodbine Grade 2 last time when closing down a fast pace set by her stablemate Inflexibility; may have been best in the Sheepshead Bay two back while trying to pick her way through some traffic in the stretch. HOMELAND SECURITY sat a perfect trip and wore down pace-setting longshot Savannah Belle late while defeating a couple of these rivals last time over this trip; needs to improve but has the right running style and is still lightly-raced.

ELEVENTH RACE

INSPECTOR LYNLEY a frustrating horse at times but he has been genuinely unlucky throughout his career and fits well in a race like this one; needs a better trip than he managed last time when rated back behind a slow pace and then having to rally up the inside after failing to gain clearance in the stretch. TICONDEROGA has always had plenty of talent but he has been slow to put things together and has so far failed to break through with a big win; in the right kind of spot after finishing a good 2nd to his very talented stablemate Almanaar last time, but he is a rail runner who needs a trip.