ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, TOP OF THE PAGE

FIRST RACE

MO WHEELS UP an Uncle Mo filly debuting for a trainer who has gotten off to a fast start at the meet and she appears to be training forwardly into her first start; dam won four of her five career starts, including three stakes, and her first four foals are all winners. INTO MYSTIC breezed a bullet 9.4 in April before being purchased for $650k and her dam is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners; Pletcher off slowly at the meet with his 2yo first time starters (1 for 7 so far, with the lone win via DQ with an MTO in and off the turf race). WHAT A FOX by Bernardini and out of a stakes-placed mare whose two career wins both came sprinting on dirt, and this is the female family of good horses like Call Now and Olympio; Asmussen dominating the 2yo set up here so far, finishing first with six of his seven starters in MSW dirt sprints (one of those winners was disqualified, allowing Pletcher to pick up his only win).

SECOND RACE

JIMMY JAZZ has found a pair of tough spots for the level in his first two starts and he did some good things both times while looking a bit hard to handle; makes third start as a new gelding with a positive rider change. PAYNTER’S PRIZE was in contention late when put in tight and having to steady in his turf debut as a 2yo then had no chance in his next start in a race that was dominated on the pace; tired in a strongly run race off the layoff, and he steadied a few times in that last one while trying to save ground from a difficult outside post. Don’t love the race OKEAMO is exiting on the main track, but he was contesting the pace from early on there before taking over and then weakening in a race that went to closers, and he is improving from start to start for his underrated trainer; half to three turf winners can handle the surface switch.

THIRD RACE

WINSTON’S CHANCE rode a gold rail to pull off an upset here going longer in one of his five wins last year, and he has come back in form so far this summer despite coming up short in his first four starts; turns back after making a game late run to just miss last time and he sprinted effectively two starts back vs. a good field. MIGHTY ZEALOUS was in career-best form earlier this year and he has carried that form forward while facing better in his last three starts; horse to beat here if he can keep it going. HOROSCOPE has speed turning back after going longer in his first three starts following a long layoff, including a return win with a new top figure; thought he was compromised by racing on the deeper inside over that sloppy track two back, but he didn’t run his race last time.

FOURTH RACE

TOP OF THE PAGE was trying a distance beyond his best last time but was still in contention when badly bothered and losing his chance in deep stretch, and his two efforts in NY prior to that were strong efforts for different trainers; turns back off the claim for Diodoro. KARMA DELIGHT ran a pair of good races off the layoff earlier this year before hid form went south; most recent effort was a step in the right direction for a barn that struggled at Belmont but has been heating up since arriving in Saratoga. WIN WITH PRIDE turf to dirt after failing to make an impact in shorter turf sprint last time; two for two sprinting on dirt in claiming company, including a win over this distance off the layoff where he defeated a pair of horses who have won at this meet already.

FIFTH RACE

DISCO PARTNER tried to stretch out to a mile last time and couldn’t make a late impact, but that race was controlled on the front end by a talented horse

on a rated pace; top turf sprinter back to what he does best here and he was impressive closing down the Jaipur two back in another race that didn’t set up that well for him. HOLDING GOLD did his best while also trying to close in that Jaipur but couldn’t quite kick with DISCO PARTNER, and he was rated back to last early at Woodbine last time, and was over behind horses for a long way while trying to close ground in the stretch; needs all the breaks to get the better of the top one. SANDY’Z

SLEW sharp right now after winning three of his last four for top connections; stepping back up here but has speed and may be able to handle the rise in his current form.

SIXTH RACE

IRISH INTUITION broke slowly from the gate in her debut and was always in behind horses through the stretch, which made it hard to tell how much horse she actually had; raced on without ever getting any momentum up, and may be better than that first run makes her look. SEEK AND DESTROY a three-quarter sister to the talented turf filly Tammy the Torpedo, who also raced for this trainer and was a debut winner at Saratoga before going on to win a couple of graded stakes; new sire Verazzano was a talented runner with speed and acquitted himself well when shipped to Europe to race on turf. TULA debuted in a very weak-looking field at Delaware, but she did well there to get 3rd after losing all chance when carried out badly on the first turn; well-bred filly can improve for trainer having some hard luck with well-meant horses early in the meet.

SEVENTH RACE

FELIX IN FABULA isn’t flashy but he has shown up in all of his one-turn races so far and he was game to get it dome last time after being rated back off a slow pace early; right back in for $40k off the claim for a dangerous trainer. SHOW ME THE BUCKS dropping for the first time and turning back after failing to make an impact in two-turn Monmouth stake that was dominated wire-to-wire last time; game win sprinting in his Gulfstream debut after a good trip, and the horse he defeated that day earned an 88 Beyer up here last week. AMERICAN POWER jumped up to a big new top figure when winning impressively last time for a trainer who could do no wrong at Belmont; threat if he can run that race back.

EIGHTH RACE

DECISIVE TRIUMPH endured an extended layoff shortly after posting the first two wins of his career as a 3yo, but he has returned to form almost immediately since stretched back out; drops for a trainer who has been live with price horses at the meet without getting lucky, so far.

ROMAN APPROVAL owns the best race available in this field and will be hard to handle if she shows up with it as he drops back down in class; owns good speed and can carry it when he’s right. BERNAY tried an odd spot off the switch to Servis last time and never got involved; not sure how much he still has in the tank as a 7yo but he is much better suited to this distance and he did run pretty well in his first start back from that extended layoff back in January.

NINTH RACE

UNCLE GIO was narrowly outfinished by a couple of these over this distance last time at Belmont but he may have run the best race of anyone that day while getting a bit rank and racing wide throughout; was still gaining at the end and figures tough if he can back that race up vs. a similar field with blinkers on. IM THE CAPTAIN NOW picked up overdue maiden win off the layoff in a race that set up well for his closing style and he has also run well in his first two starts at this level while coming up short; closer can save the ground from his inside draw. GAUGUIN came up just short while in a three-way photo last time and has now hit the board without winning in five of his six starts since arriving stateside; right in the mix again but getting harder to take with every passing start.

TENTH RACE

OUTPLAY improved through racing as a 3yo to eventually win the Curlin over this track and trip last summer, before taking a hot in the Pennsylvania Derby to no avail; returned from the layoff to put up a new top figure sprinting, and he appears to be back in the right kind of spot here after entering the wrong race last time. still not sure what

KURILOV’s best surface or distance is, but he has so far been better on turf since arriving stateside; needed every inch of a perfect trip to dead-heat for the win on turf two back, and his first two starts over here on the main track were not his best races. TIMELINE hasn’t panned out after a highlypromising start to his career and he hasn’t shown the kind of forward move so far as a 4yo that one could have hoped for; stretches out after failing to hold without excuse last time.

ELEVENTH RACE

JAZZY JUDER improved on turf last year and she returned from the layoff to make a big wide run from last to challenge return winner Glossy and only gave in late while likely running the second- best race in that spot; has more positional speed than she showed last time and can benefit from having the run out of the way. BIRTHDAY GIFT was a huge price when getting up to win first time out with a good finish after getting through on the rail; drops for the first time after showing speed over yielding ground going longer last time. SAMARA back down after stumbling at the start last time on a class rise off the claim; prior two efforts were solid vs. claiming company and she has speed.