ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, TWISTED ROAD

FIRST RACE

It turns out that UPPER ROOM is a notch below N1X caliber, hence the drop to $25k claiming N2L. His speed figures are appropriate for this class; he can grind out the win from off the pace in his first start for a tag. AURORA D’ORO has something the top choice lacks. That is, speed. He pressed and faded opening week vs. starter allowance foes; the drop makes sense for the lightly raced colt whose highly-rated maiden-20 win two starts back would make him tough to catch. AQUILA will be among the favorites; his races in January-February are among the fastest in the field. But the expensive colt misfired his next three starts, and now shows up for a relatively low claim tag. Longshot TOPGALLANT is the only starter with a win over the Del Mar surface.

SECOND RACE

First-time starter DER LU was nominated to the G2 Sorrento (race 8), which suggests high expectations. Instead, the $900k 2yo purchase will make her debut for Bob Baffert in conventional fashion by starting out in a maiden race. Sharp works, her dam produced two winners, and first-timers from this outfit typically are ready to fire. COURTEOUS finished fifth as the favorite in her debut, but the effort was not as disappointing as the finish position. She was breaking slowly in gate workouts prior to her debut, then broke slowly in the race. She trailed the field, made a little move on the turn, then went evenly late. She probably benefits by the longer distance of this six and onehalf furlong sprint; with a clean break she should improve. KEEPER OFTHE STARS finished third in her respectable debut and should improve second time out. Likewise, VEGAS STRONG BABY finished fourth in her debut and has a right to improve.

THIRD RACE

Multiple stakes winner RIVER BOYNE has targeted this G3 for the past two months; he enters as the class of the field with only one subpar race on a “yielding” turf course in Kentucky. Otherwise, ‘BOYNE won four of his last five and ran well finishing second on this course last fall. None of his rivals have won an unrestricted stakes race; ‘BOYNE has won two. CALEXMAN looms an interesting theft candidate. He set a strong pace in the Oceanside on opening day, led to deep stretch and finished third. Good effort, though the course was kind to speed opening week. Nonetheless, CALEXMAN should be loose on the lead in this otherwise paceless affair. Come and catch him. RESTRAINEDVENGENCE has learned to ration his speed, which led to a convincing score in the restricted Oceanside Stakes. He rated off the pace, and won by three-quarters. Good win. It is tough for an Oceanside winner to wheel back and win the La Jolla, but Enterprising accomplished the feat four years ago. Since 2007, four other Oceanside winners fell short in the La Jolla.

FOURTH RACE

SUNRISE ROYALE returns to the Cal-bred maiden50 level of her runner-up debut in which she finished 10 lengths clear of third. She tried Calbred special-weight maidens last time, but subsequent stakes winner Just Grazed Me was too tough. Back where she fits, with a versatile running style in a race with plenty of speed, ‘ROYALE can wear them down late. Z Z TIGER set the pace and tired all six starts. Now she drops to $50k maidenclaiming for the first time, and is drawn outside her main pace rival. First-time starter GYPSY BLU has a chance at a price. Trainer David Hofmans pops occasionally with debut runners; this 4yo rookie is the first runner produced by stakes winner Salty Fries. CHAMPAGNE HONEY might be ranked too low by this handicapper. In the money all five starts at this level, the challenge is she is drawn inside Z Z TIGER and will be under pressure every step of the way.

FIFTH RACE

Another chance for SIR EDDIE, runner-up as the favorite three straight turf sprints against Cal-bred

maidens. He ran well all three; his most recent was his best. He finished more than three lengths clear of third. The gelding adds blinkers, shortens from six and one-half to five furlongs, has tactical speed and can finish, and looks like the one to beat though he is facing a higher level (open maidens rather than state-breds). YOUNG HENDRICK was off slowly and steadied in his debut, but rallied to fifth. Gelded since, working well, sure to improve with a debut under his belt. ESKIMO ROSES is fast, working bullets for his first start since April, and the one they all must catch. At this abbreviated distance of five furlongs, the eight-start maiden not stop. He will be hounded however, by speedster BAHAMIAN.

SIXTH RACE

TYFOSHA and SPRING LILY both were considered Oaks prospects early this year; both were sidelined and now make their first start in fourth months in this N1X sprint. The call is TYFOSHA, runner-up twice on this track last summer in highly rated maiden races. First start since finishing last in the G1 Ashland in April in Kentucky, she runs well fresh. SPRING LILY finished last in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks in April; this is her first start since. Her runaway maiden win in February at Santa Anita would be tough to beat; she appears to have trained well for her comeback. HOT AUTUMN has something the top pair lack. That is, recent form. Maiden winner two back in June, respectable runner-up last month in an allowance, she posted a fast three-furlong workout here last weekend that suggests she will be involved early. If the pace falls apart, then last-out maiden winner SUMMER’S INDY could be along in time.

SEVENTH RACE

Two turns is a challenge for TINY TINA, whose only previous route was a third-place finish in a slowpace turf mile in spring. Nonetheless, she gets the call stretching back to a route in this $40k claiming turf scramble for 3yo fillies. Third in each of her last three starts, she figures for a forwardly placed trip just off the pace. Meanwhile, BUNNY YOGURT will rally late. A deep closer, her maiden-75 win two back at this mile distance puts her in the mix. DRIFT AWAY ships from the Midwest, where she won two of her five turf routes. MISCHIEVOUS SONG goes long following a pair of front-running sprint wins. She is likely to set the pace, and she could be long gone.

EIGHTH RACE

The debut victory by STIRRED was a lot better than the margin of victory (length and a quarter) or Beyer Figure (63). STIRRED was squeezed and away poorly, quick enough to recover and roll quickly into contention inside and behind runners, angled outside for the drive, took aim on the leaders and reeled them in to win going away. Very impressive. She appears to have trained well since, and probably benefits by the distance as she stretches from five furlongs to six. DEL MAR MAY finished second in one of the fastest maiden races of the year, runner-up behind the million-dollar filly Brill while finishing nearly six lengths clear of third. Super effort by ‘MAY, whose 85 Beyer is the field’s top figure. The challenge is wheeling back only two and one-half weeks after that top effort. REFLECT won her debut for a trainer whose debut winners often turn out to be very good. The past three years, Keith Desormeaux-trained debut winners Beautiful Shot, With Honors, Miss Southern Miss and Decked Out all subsequently won stakes. BELLAFINA, runner-up in her debut, adds blinkers and can improve. BOUJIE GIRL earned a big number (81 Beyer) winning her debut a little more than a week ago.

NINTH RACE

The third week of the meet ends with the most probable winner on the card. TWISTED ROAD finished second as the favorite last out at this maiden-20 level, but he would have been right there with a better trip. He got stalled in traffic behind runners at the quarter pole, had to wait, finally found a seam, and finished well. He ran as if he will benefit by the stretch from five and a half furlongs, to seven. Off the pace and into the winner’s circle. WORKING finished third both starts. He will be involved in the pace scenario. MASTERPIECE DAY, off the board both starts while getting some wagering support, has an upset chance taking off blinkers, trying a rider switch and a new surface.