ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, WILD COLONIAL BOY

FIRST RACE

SUMNER hasn’t come close in three starts since going back to back in his first two starts on dirt vs. claiming company, the second of those with a field-best 83 Beyer; drops back down with a perfect post after facing much better horses in his last three starts. FILLET OF SOLE dropping in claiming price but he hasn’t made a real impact in four attempts against three-life claimers dating back to February; has shown more positional speed in his two most recent starts and he does own a prior win around two turns. RUN BAYOU BIRD was a big price when winning a two-turn mile at Evangeline two starts back with a new top figure; drops in for a tag for the first time after backing that race up pretty well in first start for this trainer at Finger Lakes when second best to a 1/5 favorite (though that was essentially a three horse field).

SECOND RACE

PAZ THE WINE back to turf off the layoff to make start #14. Has hit the board in six straight turf starts without winning, but she was facing some better fields for the level last year and running well in those races; blinkers on for trainer who has been a little snakebit so far at the meet. PUFFIN PATTY has turf debut rained off at Monmouth 12 days ago and flashed good speed in that race before being taken on by a couple of classdropping rivals; dangerous if bringing that speed over to turf. AILISH cutting back and dropping in class after facing better in first three starts of her career; trainer’s two wins at the meet so far have both come on turf.

THIRD RACE

ELIZABETH NICOLE starting back as a 3yo on a big class drop, which isn’t necessarily a great sign, but she was impressive winning her career debut after getting in a bit tight, and she faced better in her final two starts of the year. KID CROFT was outrun on turf in her debut but showed more speed when dropped in class to sprint on dirt last time, and she was that race convincingly at the end; logically spotted by a sharp trainer for her first start with other winners while picking up leading rider. BEAUTIFUL BUZZ drops again after seeing her form decline in her two most recent starts; getting a trainer change to Rudy, but her former conditioner does an excellent job.

FOURTH RACE

ON PATROL won his turf debut on the drop in his first start of the year and he actually ran pretty well in his next start as well while running into some traffic late; no chance last time in a race that was dominated on the lead by Factor This. MORNING STRIDE dropping for a trainer who is off to a strong start at the meet (Sharp 5 for 10 so far at the meet, and 3 for 3 with turf routers); surrounded game win with a new top figure two back with a pair of solid efforts behind the in-form Dubby Dubbie, who was last seen finishing 3rd in an Arlington Grade 3. JAILHOUSE KITTEN found herself to win back to back starts at Churchill when dropped back down in class, including one over this distance; moved up by Maker off the re-claim but he is going to need some pace to close into.

FIFTH RACE

DOUPS POINT sprinted first time out and was doing his best running late after an inside trip; Point of Entry colt may appreciate the added distance he gets here and his first-out experience gives him an edge on the firsters. TENMINUTESWITHAL the first foal from this dam, who was a winner on turf and a sister to the Grade 3 winner Converge, and his second dam was also a graded stakes winner on grass; Englehart’s success with firsters on turf has all come with sprinters, but there are prices in there and he has started very few going longer.

CRAZY LIFE debuts from the rail for Chad Brown; Freud colt has plenty of behind him with a strong Sam-Son family on the dam side. PIER FORTY a City Zip colt debuting long on grass after bringing $250k in March for top connections; dam won 1 of 5 turf starts in her career and has dropped a turf winner, but her foals have so far been better on dirt.

SIXTH RACE

LADY BERGEN faltered as the favorite three starts back at Aqueduct, but she has otherwise turned her career around since switched to dirt last September and she has run well vs. better horses without winning in each of her last two starts; has some other speed to contend with in this spot but she ran well without the lead last time. BABY BOSS wired a Stallion Series race on dirt when unchallenged on the lead back in April, but she was improving into that spot and overcame a terrible start to defeat a weak field to break her maiden; turf to dirt for trainer having another solid meet up here. HELD ACCOUNTABLE has now made two starts as a 3yo that are both well below the races she was running last year; looking to turn it around third off the layoff after starting back on turf and then catching slop.

SEVENTH RACE

FLYOFF dropped in to face maiden claiming company in his return from a long layoff at Belmont and he crushed that field while matching his top figure; has to stretch out for this but that shouldn’t be too much if a problem and he has the kind of positional speed to get into a trip over the inner. CAPE ANGEL faced better on turf early on before dropping and dominating maiden claimers at Suffolk in his final start as a 3yo; returned from the layoff to put in a big run from off the pace once extricating himself from some traffic on opening day, but they went fast in front of him in there. THE DOW dropping out of stakes try off the claim while looking to improve, which he clearly has to do in order to factor in this spot; lightly-raced 3yo holds the upside and he can close into a pace.

EIGHTH RACE

DANNY CALIFORNIA was improving steadily early on before defeating SPEKE on the square in February and he didn’t appear to have a fair chance last time in a race that was dominated up close over a muddy track; blinkers on as he tries to stretch out in a field holding some question marks at the distance. SPEKE bounced out of that defeat at the hands of DANNY CALIFORNIA to break his maiden by open lengths while seeing his figure decline; improved over that muddy track last time where he was no match for Danbury on the pace, and he may be okay with this added distance. J J’S DREAMING enters off back to back 92 Beyer tops going a mile and while the first of those came in a suspect race, thought he ran particularly well last time to contest the pace and take over early before falling to an in-form closer; distance the main concern. NEW YORK HERO has speed and began with some potential before tailing off in his recent form; trainer change is an odd one and while his new conditioner does a good job overall he is 1 for 11 first off the trainer change on dirt, with several runners in that sample bombing at short prices.

NINTH RACE

MAJESTIC DUNHILL broke his maiden over course and distance up here as a 2yo and he is now a stakes winner sprinting on turf looking for three in a row; good effort off the layoff while getting forced to the inside and managing to keep his run going before coming clear, and he was much the best in that Monmouth nd stakes last time. WORLD OF TROUBLE is going to be hard on this field if bringing his good race to turf, and he has the pedigree to handle it being out of a dam who is a sister to the excellent turf sprinter Bucchero; this is an odd spot for him to turn up in after scratching from the Amsterdam two Saturday’s ago, but he is a real talent and has plenty of early speed. DIRTY tries tougher after winning three of four since switched over to grass, including top figure win from off the pace last time; threat right back with another effort like that.

TENTH RACE

WILD COLONIAL BOY broke poorly first time out before making a run through the stretch and he has no chance with a blowout winner in that last one after steadying early on, but once again put in a nice late run for 2nd; blinkers on for a trainer who can win up here. GIANT BOO BOO ran well first time out while ultimately proving to be only secondbest to fellow first-time starter Sweeping Vista, and he was only second-best once again when back to dirt and down in class last time; threat to improve for sharp claiming connections. AMERICAN NINJA turf to dirt and turning back with blinkers on after showing speed on yielding ground and tiring off the claim; debut effort sprinting on dirt wasn’t bad while chasing wide and finishing just behind GIANT BOO BOO after some early traffic. Union Avenue Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 (518) 584-6200 Main track: One and one-eighths mile, oval. Mellon turf course: One mile, 98 feet. Inner turf course: Seven Furlongs, 304 feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,144 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick 4 and Superfecta wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days)