ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, BELIEVE INDEED

FIRST RACE

East Coast shipper BELIEVE INDEED looks tough to beat in this $16k claiming starter allowance on turf. Claimed from a $25k win in May, she makes her California debut against a field comprised mostly of sprinters and dirt horses. The only apparent knock on the “best horse” is she has not started in nearly three months. Against this modest group, that should not matter. Potential standout, at corresponding odds. WAR MOCCASIN was claimed for $16k from a runner-up finish on dirt; the speed figures she earned finishing in the money four of previous six starts on turf compare favorably to the top choice. ROYAL ASSCHER, stablemate of the top choice, stretches out and returns to turf after a decisive $16k claiming sprint win on dirt. ‘ASSCHER might be the one to catch, although closers dominated turf routes the last time the rails were at this 30-foot setting (July 25-27).

SECOND RACE

JUST KIDDING ran well the first race of the meet. He pressed a fast pace, made the lead in deep stretch, then got run over. Under the circumstances, the runner-up finish was super. He drops from $16k claiming to $12.5k, has a versatile style that allows him to press/stalk while racing in the clear, and can win if he runs two alike. He is not exactly a win machine, however. ‘KIDDING is 0 for 9 at Del Mar, 3 for 33 in his career. SHACKLEFORD BANKS is a 15-time winner dropping two levels for his first start in two months. Six of the stable’s first 10 winners this meet were fresh horses (comebackers, first-time starters). The pattern is the same for ‘BANKS, who won twice here last summer at higher levels. ABOVE BOARD pressed the fast pace and gave way in the same race as the top choice. That race might have been a prep; he was intended to run two weeks earlier (July 4, LRC) but scratched. Claimed for $8k in June, he clearly has improved for his new stable and will be among the front-runners/pressers. SOUTH AMERICAIN moves up following a sharp win vs. easier.

THIRD RACE

Maiden 2-year-olds go five furlongs on turf, firsttime gelding HARTEL is the tepid choice. He was foiled as the favorite last out, finishing last in a fast-pace dirt race. But he was gelded afterward, takes off blinkers, and a switch to turf might be fine for the son of City Zip ridden for the first time by Flavien Prat. TRUCK SALESMAN set a fast pace in his debut, then tired and finished fifth. Not bad at all. He might be the speed of the field. As for turf, ‘SALESMAN is by first-crop sire Can the Man, whose lone turf starter (through Friday) finished third. ORACLE OF OMAHA, stablemate of the top choice, goes route to sprint and adds blinkers. He finished second in his debut at one mile, then seventh next out. SEEKING REFUGE appears to have trained well and has a look in a wide-open race although his stable rarely wins with first-time starters on turf (0 for 37 past five years). FLYING SCOTSMAN has worked well; he is a sibling to seven winners including stakes winners Leigh Court and Barracks Road.

FOURTH RACE

This maiden-20 sprint is a good spot to take a shot with come-from-behind Golden Gate shipper KELSEYBELLE. Her efforts on turf and synthetic in Northern California include four in-the-money finishes from her last six starts, her speed figures are appropriate for this level. The gray must overcome the inside post, but she is fast enough to post a mild upset from off the pace. SNAKED flashed speed vs. tougher company last summer and fall, then went to the sidelines. She returns at the bottom for a new stable, adds blinkers, and gets in light with a five-pound apprentice rider. She might be the one they have to catch. PRAY FOR CORDAY might be ranked too low by this handicapper. She was compromised by a pace duel from the inside post last out. Now she moves

from post 1 to post 10, and figures for a pressing trip outside and in the clear. IRISH CREAM N KAFE finished second last out, which gives her a look in a relatively weak race.

FIFTH RACE

MONGOLIAN WINDOW and MARJORIE E are tough to separate in this starter allowance turf mile. ‘WINDOW did not have a fair shot last out. She broke slowly and was rank, was repeatedly rank while anchored at the back behind a very slow pace, then actually tried to finish. She was eighth across the wire in a race that did not unfold to her liking. She is reunited with jockey Tyler Baze, is likely to be more forwardly placed with a clean break, and can win by reproducing either of her two previous turf routes. MARJORIE E put it all together last out winning a Cal-bred maiden race by a nose after pressing a fast pace over a course that was kind to speed opening week. Nonetheless, MARJORIE E enters with an improving pattern for trainer Paddy Gallagher, whose last-start maiden winners have won four of their last 13. None were favored. MARRIED BY NOW figures off her Calbred maiden win two starts back. This is her first start since May.

SIXTH RACE

LUNAGONNAMOONYA entered her debut with a series of good workouts and wagering support at 5.90-1. But she was off slowly, squeezed back to last, raced greenly and misfired. The entire race was a toss. The 2yo filly drops a notch to Cal-bred maiden-50, she worked a sharp half-mile from the gate one week ago, and gets the call to spring a minor upset second time out. Also-eligible DISCO

TALE rallied to finish second in an improved effort in her second start. She may benefit from the slightly longer distance of this five and one-half furlong race. LAKERBALL showed run finishing an okay third in her debut, while JELLY BEAN KRISTINE finished second last out in the best race of her career. That was her first try at this class level.

SEVENTH RACE

Only six runners in this N1X dirt mile, but lots of ways to go. RIVER ECHO dropped to this level and finished an okay third opening day. His forwardly placed running style should play well in a field without much pace. SHOW ME DA LUTE exits the same race; his fifth-place finish might have been better than it appears. It was his first start since last fall, and he was parked wide from start to finish. With that comeback prep race under his belt, expect major improvement. KIDMON is the “fastest” in the field based on respectable figures earned in sprints in spring. Two turns should be okay for the lightly raced 4yo sired by Lemon Drop Kid. KIDMON is a sibling to graded stakes-winning turf females Keertana, Snow Top Mountain and Diversy Harbor.

EIGHTH RACE

BLAZE OF GLORY ran the best race of his career six days ago, third by a length. The maiden-20 will be the first horse this summer to make three starts at the meet; if he reproduces his most recent start wheeling back on short notice should handle this modest group. JONAS drops form Calbred maiden-40 and shortens to a sprint, while the speed figures earned by AWESOME E K in winter and spring are among the fastest in the field. 2260 Jimmy Durante Blvd. Del Mar, CA 92014 (858) 755-1141 Main track: One Mile, oval. Turf course: Seven eighths mile. Distance from last turn to finish line: 919 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ WPS - 15.43% ■ Double - 20% ■ Exacta, Quinella - 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Late Pick 5, Pick 6 - 23.68% ■ Early Pick 5 - 14%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.