ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, STREET ZOMBIE

FIRST RACE

AUNT LUBIE is ready to stretch out, following a pair of even-paced sprints. She finished third last out in a productive race. The runner-up and seventh-place finisher returned to win; the winner and fifth-place finisher returned to finish second. AUNT LUBIE adds blinkers, her even-paced running style and pedigree suggest two turns will be her best trip. CONFIDENTIALLY made her debut in a route, she finished a decent third in promising career launch. Expect improvement second out from the Tapit filly, whose dam is an unraced sibling to Breeders’ Cup winners Sweet Catomine and Life Is Sweet. NOW BLESSED stretches out for the first time. The likely pacesetter will try to wire the field. The first three weeks of the meet (through Sunday), only one of the 15 dirt miles was won by the pacesetter. CONVINCE is improving. She finished second last out with a 71 Beyer that is the highest in the field. PULPACHEEKS will rally, first time dirt.

SECOND RACE

STOP THE VIOLENCE ran super last out, fourth after dueling on a fast pace in his initial start against winners. He was pressured from the outside, stuck in there to near the sixteenth pole, and tired. Now he shortens from seven furlongs on dirt to five furlongs on turf, and could lead gate to wire based on his maiden win two back. The first three weeks of the meet (through Sunday), five of the 11 turf sprints were won by the pacesetter (two with rails down, two with rails at 12 feet, one at 24). The turf rails are at 30 feet this week. ISEE IT IN HISEYES was in tough last out in a stakes race; his runnerup finish two starts back at this starter allowance level makes him a contender from slightly off the pace. Like the top choice, ‘HISEYES is first time turf. SARATOGA MORNING is the only entrant with turf form. He won a maiden-50 on grass in spring. Look for ‘MORNING to take back and rally late.

THIRD RACE

STREET ZOMBIE is the most probable winner on the card following a better-than-looked fourth last out during a time in the meet when most main-track sprint winners rallied wide; ‘ZOMBIE dueled inside on strong fractions, hung tough to the middle of the stretch, then tired. He missed by only three lengths, and was claimed. Now he moves to an outside post, shortens from six and a half to five and a half, and figures for a pressing/ stalking trip in the clear. POSITIVE NUMBERS will make his comeback as a first-time gelding, dropping from maiden special-weight in Northern California to maiden-20 with a series of sharp works at Golden Gate for a winning stable. Trainer Bill Morey entered the week 5 for 17. IMAGINE I AM FASTEST, in the money half his eight starts, drops to the bottom class level for the first time. IRON CURTAIN, ROYAL SEEKER and LION COMMAND have run races that them in the picture.

FOURTH RACE

In a full, deep field of $8k claiming fillies and mares, ADIOS CALI gets the call. Her third last out was better than it looks. She steadied and lost momentum at the quarter pole, then re-rallied. Good effort under the circumstances. She was claimed by John Martin, whose five-year f.o.c. win rate is 36 percent (all tracks). LUCKY STUDENT finished sixth in the same race as the top choice, but her effort was okay. She sped to the lead, set a fast pace and weakened. Now she shortens from six and a half to five and a half, and looms a factor from gate to wire. PEAKED was overmatched last out in a claiming starter, she drops to a level comparable to her most recent win. Also-eligible SHARP HOLIDAY finished second in a low-rated race last time, but was claimed by Genaro Vallejo, who is 7 for 21 f.o.c. the past year. TUSCANY BEAUTY and LOOKINFORADANGER will be pace factors from the inside posts. Lots of contenders in this deep low-level claiming field.

FIFTH RACE

ANGEL ALESSANDRA ran well in her fifth-place debut; the 2yo maiden filly stretches out as the one to beat in this turf mile. Her debut was promising. She broke slowly, then gradually made up ground thereafter to split the field. The highly rated race was validated when runner-up Del Mar May returned to finish second in the G2 Sorrento

Stakes; sixth-place finisher Bizwhacks returned to finish second in a maiden special weight. ‘ALESSANDRA is bred to run long, and gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat. ASK THE CUSTOMER also ran well in her debut, at Laurel. She broke slowly, raced at the back, and then finished willingly inside. Like the top choice, ‘CUSTOMER should like two turns. Her dam is a sibling to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Desert Code. Grass should be fine. European import HYDE PARK CORNER gets Lasix; she finished second last out in an allowance race in Ireland. FRIARS WALK finished fourth against maidens in her debut in Ireland, this is her U.S. debut.

SIXTH RACE

WATCH ME BURN opened up setting a strong pace last out vs. maiden-50s, and wired the field in decisive fashion. The 2yo filly worked a solid halfmile since, and should be long gone stepping up in class to starter allowance. She is facing males this time, but gender is hardly significant in 2yo races. BEA’S BOY might be a better colt than his lowrated maiden victory two months ago. He waited behind runners (“trouble” did not seem to hinder), split horses in the lane, and scored a game victory. He showed tenacity, his closing style is opposite the top choice, he will be rolling late. Due to his low Beyer (39), he might start at a hint of a price. AT THE MARGIN went slow early and fast late to crush Cal-bred maiden-40s by five lengths. Sharp win, this is the next logical step up in class.

SEVENTH RACE

Despite the outside post, CORDIALITY is a deserving choice in this turf-mile stakes for Cal-bred fillies and mares. Her two-turn form this year is super, two wins and a third in G3. Freshened nearly two months, apparently working well, she has speed to establish position before losing ground and should get a good trip pressing the pace. SHE HAS THE RITE STUFF misfired her only start this year, but her form last summer on this course was strong, she is eligible to return to form returning to a course on which she has won twice. She will rally late. MOONLESS SKY was in tough last out against N3X/classified allowance company, but her runner-up finish two back in a N2X makes her a legit threat from off the pace. She missed by a nose last year in this race. PRINCESS ROI is likely to set the pace, second start back. QUEEN BEE TO YOU had a compromising trip last time finishing fifth in a N1X turf sprint after encountering heavy traffic through the turn. Up in class, rider switch, big chance to at least outrun her likely high odds.

EIGHTH RACE

STAY THIRSTY MY AMI GO set fast fraction sand faded in her debut. The 2yo filly drops from maiden-80 to maiden-32 and could be long gone second time out. PORTAL CREEK improved in her second start, runner-up vs. maiden-50s. Down in class, modest foes, legit contender. Also-eligible SKY BABE is a first-time starter from a winning stable, while DISCO TALE improved second time out, runner-up vs. state-bred rivals. None of the top four would be a surprise.