ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, TAKE CHARGE AUBREY

FIRST RACE

SHOWCASE MALL dropping in class back on turf after tiring in a race moved to the main track in his second career start; ran well with a bit of a trip in his career debut sprinting on grass where he faced a good field. GRANDMAS FAVORITE made two starts as a 2yo, both vs. better horses, and went evenly in those races while finishing 3rd both times; class relief helps lightly-raced colt who needs to show some speed from the rail. FOOCH enters with a field-best 87 Beyer earned on dirt in his most recent start, which came back in January at Aqueduct; not much turf pedigree to lean on but he is another dropping in class and he has speed.

SECOND RACE

ASIAN’S WAY earned a career-best figure when somehow on the lead over a wet track two starts back, an effort that was difficult to gauge when she showed up here early in the meet, but she was unlucky not to back that race up when getting bumped while trying to split horses with a big run in the stretch; going good right now for a barn that has perked up after a slow Belmont meet. AREWEHAVINGFUNYET turning back to a better distance for this after getting up for 3rd late over a twoturn mile and 1/8 last time in the slop; was running races earlier this year at Aqueduct that would make her tough in here. CATS HALO only 3-34 lifetime but he has spent quite a bit of time racing over his head along the way and he ran well to be 2nd at a big price the last time he was entered for a tag with a 78 Beyer.

THIRD RACE

SHANGHAI DREAMS lacked early speed in his debut at Belmont but he was finishing gamely in the stretch to just miss 3rd in a race that was dominated by the 1-2 finishers on the front end; drops for his second start with Lasix on as he stretches out in distance. HIT A PROVISIONAL debuted at this level back in June and came wide with the momentum before just getting outfinished by a rival getting through on the inside; has to stretch out but he is tough here with a similar effort for trainer who is having a nice meet so far. GRAND BANKS 0-20 and counting after coming up short as a heavy favorite at this level when last seen; has a good post for an excellent trainer while facing a bunch of stretch-outs, but she is tough to take on top with any confidence.

FOURTH RACE

FAYETTE WARRIOR, debuting for 2yo ace Wesley Ward, is by an excellent turf sire in Exchange Rate and he is a half to the good turf horse Siding Spring, who is stakes-placed sprinting on grass; sharp half-mile breeze at Keeneland last month suggests he has some speed. FOG OF WAR has a big pedigree for top connections being out of a Group 2-winning dam for the powerful Coolmore operation and from the family of Grade 1-winning turf horse Riskaverse; may ultimately want more ground but this trainer spots his horses correctly. Interesting spot for CURRENT in his debut as the pedigree for this Curlin half-brother to the Grade 1-winning dirt router Weep No More suggests dirt, but his dam is a sister to the very good turf horse Filimbi.

FIFTH RACE

PARTY IN THE SAND the lone MSW dropper in weak-looking field entering with the top last-out figure in the field, and she starts for a trainer who is once again having a solid meet up here from limited starters; turn back helps her chances. TEQUILA SUNDAY crushed a similar field over this distance at Belmont back in June before being disqualified for beating the gate in that spot; can win with an effort similar to that one after getting wired over a sloppy track at this level last time. LONG EYELASHES finished behind LIGHTWORKER when they met at about this level in Belmont back in May but she ran the better race that day while forced into a long, wide run from off the pace

and only weakening late stages while making her career debut; hasn’t run quite as well in her two subsequent starts, but she was off slowly last time.

SIXTH RACE

LOU’S CHARDONNAY shipped up her in sharp form from Churchill and she crushed three-life claimers in her NY debut with a new top figure to keep strong run of dirt form going; logically spotted off the claim for trainer off to a hot start at the meet. ORCHID PARTY was on an improving run earlier this year on the main track, culminating with a good effort for 3rd in a Stallion series race that was wired on a rated pace in April; threat to turn things around back on fast dirt for the first time since that underrated effort. PROPORTIONALITY lacks figure-power in this field but she ran well last time to prevail in a hotly-contested pace, only to come up short at the end; outside draw a plus.

SEVENTH RACE

TAKE YOUR GUNS had no chance with Diversify running that field out of the race from the start in the Suburban last time but he has actually run well in the Brooklyn one start prior, which came on the heels of back to back wins in his first two starts of the year; figures tough taking a step back in class, but he needs some pace to develop. YOU’RE TO BLAME kicked off his 2018 campaign with a frontrunning win around two-turns at Gulfstream, but his overall form has remained at the same level since switching barns this year, and he remains a real question mark over this kind of distance; tactical speed his advantage in this field. BONUS POINTS a closer in need of pace and trip luck, but he is an underrated one and Pletcher has a good record in these longer dirt races up here. FLOWERS FOR LISA has a lot go right last time when catching the kind of wet track he likes on a day when speed was strong, but he fits well in this race and his speed is expected to play once again.

EIGHTH RACE

TAKE CHARGE AUBREY ran well in her first two starts without winning before breaking through with a big win at Belmont two starts back; turns back to a better distance after trying a two-turn stake at Finger Lakes last time. SHE’S DELIGHTFUL was no match for the talented Satisfy (78 Beyer) when switched from turf to dirt last time but she faces no one of that caliber in this spot, and she ran well to win each of her prior two starts on dirt before a layoff. OUT OF ORBIT had the best of it while on the pace with an overmatched rival in a race that had no closing going on two back and took advantage to break her maiden with a new top figure; contested the pace in front of Satisfy last time before tiring in the stretch but this race may be a bit easier on the front-runners.

NINTH RACE

CHANGE WILL DO YA GOOD getting some needed class relief in this spot and finds himself in a race where his ample early speed may give him an advantage after landing in a pair of fastpaced races in his last two starts; outside draw no bargain but he is fast enough to overcome it. BRIMSTONE reconfirmed his affinity for Saratoga when surviving an inquiry to prevail in the slop last month; has speed from an inside draw and there are turf races in his past to suggest that he can bring his form over to this surface. MOBRIDGE had won three straight $25k claimers on turf vs. NY-breds heading into that last one and he looked set to make it four in a row before getting drifty in the stretch and getting nailed by the in-form VINCENTO; tough post off the claim for a dangerous trainer.