ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME

FIRST RACE

TOP CZAR raced greenly in his debut sprinting at Laurel and he was contesting the pace on a dead rail when stretched out at Monmouth in his second start; drops in class while switching from turf to dirt after failing to make a run in a pace-dominated race last time. THROW THE FADE has settled for second-best in four of his last five raced sprinting on dirt, and he has an excuse for that last one where he was chasing a strong pace in a race that went to closers; clear horse to beat dropping in class. SOMEBODY has yet to come close in first two starts at the MSW level but he made a bit of a mid-ace move in his debut before tiring and had no chance with the impressive Rugbyman over a muddy track following a layoff last time; drops in class with blinkers after being gelded following that last start.

SECOND RACE

DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING looks set to control this race on the front end as he drops in class following fast-paced try over this distance earlier in the meet over a wet track; he also made an enterprising pace two back when closed down late by recent stakes winner Realm. SECURITIZ drops off the layoff after failing to get involved in the Stymie back in March, but he had run well in his prior start to win with a 95 Beyer after a good trip and he can get this far, though his best game is probably going shorter and around one turn. LET ME GO FIRST won his first start for this trainer last August and hasn’t won since, but he is dropping for this with some competitive back races and he has shown positional speed in the past.

THIRD RACE

PICCO UNO didn’t run up to her best in her first two starts of the year but she was back in form last time at Belmont when showing speed to dominate the Dancin Renee with a new top figure; can be a little in and out, but her best race makes her tough in here and she has a good post on the outside in a race without much other pace. BONITA BIANCA turned back to win her first start for this trainer at Monmouth with a new top figure, before trying a good group of stakes fillies last time and failing to get involved; talented filly may still have a forward move in her as she steps back in with NY-breds. ABSATOOTLY pulled off an upset with a big figure in the Iroquois last October with PICCO UNO failing to fire, but she has otherwise had a tough time dealing with that rival; capable with her best fora trainer who wins races up here and she owns a versatile running style.

FOURTH RACE

DEVIL’S FLAIR the first foal from this mare, who wasn’t much of a runner in her career but is a sister to the good turf sprinter Dowse’s Beach as well as the multiple stakes winner At the Disco, and sire Teuflesberg is a solid influence with both 2yos and turf sprinters; Ryerson underrated with first time starters overall and saddled a 2yo debut winner sprinting on turf up her last summer at a big price. TRADEABLE was overlooked in her debut despite having a strong pedigree for sprinting on turf and she made a run into that race before being denied by the eventual winner in the stretch; threat if backing that race up but don’t expect that kind of price again. KITTY’S LEGACY a full-sister to the top turf mare Fourstarcrook, as well as three-time turf sprint winner Strategic Missile; Levine has two wins and two 2nds from his last nine first time starters in turf sprints, all of them at prices.

FIFTH RACE

ASTOUNDING ran very well up here twice last summer without winning vs. tougher competition and has won both of his turf starts since, including an easy entry-level allowance win at Monmouth off the layoff; drop no big deal for a horse who is unlikely to get through his next condition, and who has raced for this tag in the past. GIANT RUN dropping for his third start back following an extended layoff but he is going to be hard on this field if he can get back to one of his good races, as he is a legitimate stakes-quality horse when he’s right; speed makes him tough over this inner turf course.

SOUPERFAST back to the level of the claim after pair of good efforts for $50k in his last two starts, including that last one up here in a race where the closers were way up against it; has rated early in his two most recent starts, but he has more positional speed to employ if electing to use it.

SIXTH RACE

CURLISM a half to the multiple stakes winner Mopotism from a dam who is a sister to the talented sprinter Songster; Nicks doesn’t debut many up here, but he has had success when he does (3 for 6 with first time starters in dirt sprints at Saratoga over the past five years, with another finishing a close 2nd at a big price, $9.34 ROI). PINK SANDS ran well in her debut up here as a 2yo over a sloppy track but she disappointed from there to lose her next three starts bat short prices; starts back as a 3yo after having a bit of a trip when cut back to sprint in her 2017 finale. FACE IT a half to the multiple Grade 1 winner It’s Tricky making her debut for top connections after coming over to the main track here to get in her last couple of breezes; trainer heating up after a quiet start to the meet.

SEVENTH RACE

HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME went through some of the wars as a 3yo while just a cut below the top of that division, and he has returned this year to hold his form at a level that is likely just a bit too tough for him; drops in for a trainer who is 4 for 11 in dirt routes at the last two Saratoga meets, with winners at 18:1, 17:1 and 9:1 ($4.25 ROI), and he was way up against it in a paceless race at Churchill last time. VIRTUAL MACHINE was done no favors while catching a wet track last time on a day when speed was strong, but he ran well two back when falling short of the speedy Flowers for Lisa at Monmouth; drops a bit with the back races to make him tough in here. ADULATOR won his first attempt routing over this track and trip as a 3yo and hasn’t won since while facing some tougher competition; getting some needed class relief for this and he projects to be forward in a race without much other pace.

EIGHTH RACE

KATIE CRUEL lands in a tough spot to make her stateside debut but she showed some ability in her first two starts in Ireland while racing handily in those races over shorter distances; can use the speed she showed over there to her advantage over this distance on the inner, and Motion has excellent numbers with horses like this over a representative sample of runners (past five years,first time in this country for Motion, turf, Lasix on: 17 for 55, 31%, $3.27 ROI). ALTEA dropping after trying stakes company in all six starts breaking her maiden in France as a 2yo and she has run well in all of those stakes attempts, never more so than last time when making a strong, wide run to take over the Lake George, before ultimately proving to be no match for the talented Daddy Is a Legend; way the horse to beat taking a step back here. SISTER SUNDAY got into a little traffic before getting up for 3rd in Gulfstream stakes try last time, but she was impressive breaking her maiden two back with a strong finish at Tampa; tough post.

NINTH RACE

ANDARTA owns valuable experience in a race like this and she ran well in her debut up here on opening day while showing speed to contest the pace from the start and only weakening late; similar show of speed likely makes her tough with the rails out on this course. MINESHAFT BLUES a half to two-time turf winner Bonita Springs debuting for a trainer who has saddled two 2yo first time starters in turf sprints so far this year, and won with both of them at odds of 36:1 and 24:1. DOCS WAY by a top turf sire in Tizway and she is a half to a pair of turf winners from this mare, including stakes winner Selenite who amassed nearly $400k in earnings in her career; trainer doesn’t run many in NY but he has shipped in to win in the past. Union Avenue Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 (518) 584-6200 Main track: One and one-eighths mile, oval. Mellon turf course: One mile, 98 feet. Inner turf course: Seven Furlongs, 304 feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,144 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick 4 and Superfecta wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days)